Our First Look Ahead to the Winter of 2018

So, Hopkins has fallen short of a 7th state championship the past 2 years now—losing to Minnetonka in the 2016 Class AAAA final, and to Elk River last week. But, the Hopkins dynasty just keeps rolling along, with 4 starters returning for next year, all of them rated in the top 10 in their respective classes. You’ve still got to go through Hopkins to win a state title.

In 2018, however, it’s unlikely that anybody will get through the Royals. Minnetonka returns to the top—that is, near the top—of the rankings at #3, while Centennial and Eastview are #2 and #4 in our early pre-season look at next year. But, Hopkins is an even bigger favorite than they were the past 2 years.

The major conferences are as follows—Northwest Suburban 5 of 25, Suburban East 5 of 25, South Suburban 4, Lake 3, Metro East 3.

1. Hopkins, #2 last year, 31-1, favorite in Section 6AAAA next year

3. Minnetonka, #18 last year, 16-14, favorite in Section 2AAAA next year

The Royals return Player of the Year candidate (and we mean last year) 5-9 combo guard Paige Bueckers. Like her team, she too fell short of those honors which were won by Gabi Haack, Elk River senior guard, but she enters 2017-2018 as the favorite for PoY. She is rated as the #1 2020 in the state. Running mate guard Raena Suggs and center Angie Hammond are among the top 10 seniors going into next season, and rugged forward Dlayla Chakolis is top 5 among the juniors.

The word is that 8th grade guard Amaya Battle will join the starting lineup next year, which bodes ill for the long term for Hopkins’ opponents. In other words, if Battle is good enough to start as an 8th grader, like Bueckers did, look out.

In a rebuilding year last year, coach Leah Dasovich still took her team to the state tournament. Now senior point guard Megan Walker is ready for more, and she has plenty of help, including some pretty big help. For example, 6-3 power forward Kayla Mershon, and 6-2 post Zoe Hardwick. Guards Natalie Erhard, Katey Brattland and Blake Greer all return, too. Still a Lake Conference or a state title are too much to hope for, even from a statewide ranking of #3.

2. Centennial, #8 last year, 22-7, favorite un Section 5AAAA

8. Champlin Park, #16, 23-7

Centennial also returns some awesome talent, led by 6-3 junior post Sara Stapleton and 5-10 senior wing Syd Stapleton. Syd is the shooter, Sara the shot-blocker though, obviously, they both do more than just that. Senior point guard Claire Orth is one of the state’s fastest players. Junior wing Taylor McAulay is rather slightly built but she can run and jump and score and play defense. They should win a Northwest Suburban title before moving on to the section and the state.

Champlin is Centennial’s main competition in the conference. 4 starters return from a section semi-finalist. They include 6-2 post Makayla Johnson, 5-11 forward Gabby Mocchi, and guards Erika Hicks and Amanda Pollard. Hicks is a small but saavy shoot-first 1.

4. Eastview, #3, 25-7, Section 3AAAA favorite

What’s this? Just one South Suburban team in our top 10? Well, Eastview, at least, is a lock for top 10 and probably more and better. The Lightning have made it to the Elite 8 in Class AAAA a remarkable 6 straight years under 3 different coaches, and 2018 might not be any different. Power forward Megan Walseth will lead the way. But who’s the 1? Maybe Emma Carpenter, maybe Macy Guebert, maybe even Mina Sete. For the 1st time in those 6 years, the Lightning don’t know for sure who’ll be handling the ball next year.

5. Cretin-Derham Hall, #20, 17-10, Section 4AAAA favorite

9. White Bear Lake, #13, 20-11

The Suburban East should be a 2-team race, as compared to this past year’s 5-way tie for 1st. Cretin has the best talent but didn’t put it together in 2017. Junior forward Frannie Hottinger has emerged as the #1 talent, and she is surrounded by experienced and highly regarded seniors Haley Moore, Autam Mendez, Elizabeth Edinger and Chanel Anderson-Manning. Hopefully coach Joe Lynch knows what was missing this past year and can plug it in, because the talent is there.

Meanwhile, 2017 was a rebuilding year for the Bears. But, of course, what passes for rebuilding under coach Jeremy Post is a share of the Suburban East title and a trip to state. They lose point guard Alexa Molin, but return post Jordan Ferrand, forward Claire Odmark, and guards Courtney Crouch and Ella Janicki. More importantly, the Bears will have their usual depth and will just wear you down. If Cretin gets it together, however, they should be able to beat White Bear in 2018.

6. St. Michael-Albertville, #7, 22-5, Section 8AAA favorite

7. Moorhead, #10, 20-6

Moorhead of course shocked St. Michael in the Section 8AAAA semi, though it has to be remembered that Rae Johnson played hurt. These 2 will duke it out for the section title in 2018.

#6 might be a bit high for such a young team—the stars are expected to be sophomore point guard Kenzie Kramer, freshman wing Kendal Cox and sophomore post Vanessa Alexander. Their running mates will be a little older but have no more experience than the young kids. Sky’s the limit, but when?

The Spuds will miss forward Brooke Tonsefeldt, who graduates, but combo guard Sam Haiby is back after those 31 points vs. St. Michael, and she has inserted herself very forcefully into the Ms. Basketball conversation for 2018. She is surrounded by a bunch of youngsters, about the same age as St. Michael’s kids. These 2 groups will probably meet for the Section 8AAAA title.

10. Wayzata, #6, 22-7

That 22-7 is misleading as the Trojans lost to Hopkins 3 times. They have championship caliber top-line talent in rugged forward Kallie Theisen and point guard Mimi Schrader. But they lose several key players and replacements, other than sophomore-to-be guard Jasmine Smiley, are not obvious.

11. Hastings, unranked, 15-13

22. Tartan, unranked, 13-13

23. Henry Sibley, unranked, 14-13

The Metro East is toughening up. Along with these 3, you’ve still got AAA Mahtomedi and Simley as well. Similar to Wayzata, Hastings has great front-line talent in forward Krystal Carlson and wing-guard Mallory Brake, but there might not be quite enough help to get over the hump.

Tartan is much deeper and is a superb defensive team with power forwards Ysareia Chevre and Kendra Ekereke. The scoring often comes from the outside—waaay outside—from 8th grade (9th-to-be) Takara Mason. More consistent offense from Chevre or Ekereke or both would raise Tartan’s profile considerably.

Sibley also has great front-line talent in 2019 forward Tori Nelson, already committed to South Dakota State, and 6-1 wing Ally Tetzlaff. Searching for some depth.

13. Forest Lake, unranked, 15-13, Section 7AAAA favorite

16. Roseville, #15, 23-7

21. Park, unranked, 13-14

25. Stillwater, unranked, 11-16

Like Cretin, Forest Lake of the Suburban East is multi-talented but not yet gelled. Unlike Cretin, Forest Lake is young and, so, who’s to say, #13 might be too low. 5-10 power forwards Abigail Groeneweg and Kenzie Stumne play bigger than that. Point guard Lexi Hultman is quick but gets out of control too often. Forest Lake is of course in Section 7, and they’re now the fave for a state tournament berth next year.

Roseville loses point guard Kaia Porter among others but forward Jayda Johnston and guards Kaylee Nelson and Jada Hood are back, as is coach Jeff Crosby. As always, nobody will be looking forward to playing Roseville.

Nobody gets more out of her talent than Park coach Stephanie Tolkinen, but now she’s got guards Taylor Johnson, Riley Perryman and Molly Wenner and power forward Delaney Young back.

Meanwhile, improvement continues under Willie Taylor and Sara Scalia at Stillwater.

14. Lakeville North, #4, 28-4, Section 1AAAA favorite

17. Farmington, unranked, 13-15

19. Apple Valley, #11, 21-7

The Panthers lose Temi Carda among others but get 6-2 Taylor Brown and Ke James back, along with sophomore-to-be shooting guard Lauren Jensen, who will be one of the best before she’s done.

Meanwhile, Farmington has been stockpiling talent and now they should be ready to make their move. Guards Molly Mogenson, Sidney Blandin and Morgan Ebel lead the way.

Apple Valley’s year was last year and they failed to take advantage, instead losing focus down the stretch. They’ve still got senior post Brynne Rolland, sophomore post Mykel Parham, and power forward Linnea Bollum back. But, who are the ball handlers?

12. Park Center, #5, 26-6

15. Maple Grove, unranked, 13-15

20. Anoka, #21, 16-13

The Pirates lose a great, great class, but will remain competitive—competitive, that is, and young and short and, did I mention shot? Joining veterans Sommer Blakemore and Meghan DuBois will be a couple-three players from among 5-6 Lauren Frost, 5-3 Kayla Cox and 5-2 Aaliyah Ragulen, all sophomores-to-be.

Maple Grove brings back seniors Autumn Mlinar, Lauryn Moline and Katherine Theis.

Meanwhile, Anoka keeps hanging around. Finally, they’ll not be a tall team though 6-0 post Lily Schoknecht is not small. 5-9 Noelle Josephson will be counted on for some scoring, while 5-4 Emily Smith and 5-3 Jerzi McAlpine will get a lot of minutes, too.

18. Mpls. South, unranked, 23-6

South brings back wing Morgan Hill and 9th grade (to be) point guard Jade Hill. Morgan is top 10 quality. Jade is going to be even better. But, for the moment, they will be very small.

24. Rochester John Marshall, unranked, 6-21

Of course it worries me that they were 6-21. Maybe they are just terrible. But the talent looks pretty good and the key players will be juniors and seniors. A bounce back and a Big 9 title are due.