Who returns the most scoring? 3A Graduation Adjusted Rankings
Darren Pitzner
In this article:
When you think about a team’s potential for the coming year, you first glance at who's graduated, right? Here’s a way to rank teams based on how much scoring production is graduating from each team.
I toyed with a couple different formulas and dialed in on one that really works. I call it a Graduation-Adjusted Ranking (GAR). Simple formula, take the playoff seed from 2021 teams and add 1/4 of the scoring percentage each team is losing to graduation. The lower the score, the better.
Let’s see how it works. Platte Valley, Resurrection Christian, and Lamar all graduate less than 8% of their 2021 scoring. You’d obviously expect them to rise and in this formula they go from 3rd, 13th, and 16th ranked up to 1st, 5th, and 8th ranked, respectively. Conversely, Centauri and Delta graduate more than 60% of their scoring. They drop from 2nd and 5th ranked to 11th and 12th ranked, respectively. Check it out below for the top teams in 3A:
<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 99.8037%; height: 378px;">
<tbody>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" width="65" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Place"}">Tournament Seed</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" width="104" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Team Name"}">Team Name</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" width="31" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"PPG"}">PPG</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" width="111" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Percent"}">Percent Senior Scoring</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" width="65">Graduation-Adjusted Ranking</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;"></td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;"></td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;"></td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;"></td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;"></td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3}">1</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"The Vanguard School"}">The Vanguard School</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":67.9}">67.9</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":18.41}">18.4</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">2</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6}">2</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Centauri"}">Centauri</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":61.9}">61.9</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":71.24}">71.2</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">11</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1}">3</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Platte Valley"}">Platte Valley</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":53.6}">53.6</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6.53}">6.5</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">1</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2}">4</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Lutheran"}">Lutheran</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":56.3}">56.3</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":33.04}">33.0</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">3</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":8}">5</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Delta"}">Delta</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":57.8}">57.8</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":62.8}">62.8</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">12</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4}">6</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Eaton"}">Eaton</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":56}">56.0</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":46.61}">46.6</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">7</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5}">7</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"University"}">University</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":51}">51.0</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":48.04}">48.0</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">10</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7}">8</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Brush"}">Brush</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":52}">52.0</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":51.15}">51.2</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">14</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":16}">9</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Pagosa Springs"}">Pagosa Springs</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":46.9}">46.9</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":31.556503198294244}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*100">31.6</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">6</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":13}">10</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"The Acadmey "}">The Academy</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":61.5}">61.5</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":40.33}">40.3</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">13</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":10}">11</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"St. Mary’s"}">St. Mary’s</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":64.8}">64.8</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":14.35}">14.4</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">4</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":11}">12</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Moffat County"}">Moffat County</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":54.4}">54.4</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":25.55}">25.6</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">9</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}">13</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Resurrction Christian"}">Resurrection Christian</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":46.2}">46.2</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7.79}">7.8</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">5</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":17}">14</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Kent Denver"}">Kent Denver</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":43.6}">43.6</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":32.3394495412844}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]*100">32.3</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">15</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":14}">15</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Coal Ridge"}">Coal Ridge</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":61.5}">61.5</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":37.56}">37.6</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">16</td>
</tr>
<tr style="height: 21px;">
<td style="width: 15.9449%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":15}">16</td>
<td style="width: 23.2283%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Lamar"}">Lamar</td>
<td style="width: 6.49606%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":50.3}">50.3</td>
<td style="width: 20.1772%; text-align: center; height: 21px;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7.16}">7.2</td>
<td style="width: 11.9094%; text-align: center; height: 21px;">8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Look for these rankings to align with preseason rankings this fall. Other teams who'll jump from their 2021 seedings are Peak to Peak (20-seed) who graduated just 9.5% of their scoring and Faith Christian (31-seed) loses only 4.0%.
Platte Valley has to be the favorite to win another title next year with leading scorers Cora (12.9 ppg) and Andi Schissler (9.0 ppg), Bree (11.8 ppg) and Brooke Bunting (9.9), and Cassie Ridings (7.0 ppg) all returning next year for the Broncos.
Other key returners for these top-16, 3A teams are [player_tooltip player_id="145393" first="Aryanna" last="Perez"] (21.2 ppg) for The Academy, [player_tooltip player_id="117701" first="Ellie" last="Hartman"] (19.8 ppg) for St. Mary’s, [player_tooltip player_id="117724" first="Mikylah" last="Espinosa"] (18.2 ppg) for The Academy, [player_tooltip player_id="116812" first="Stephanie" last="Schultz"] (17.8 ppg) for Lutheran, [player_tooltip player_id="95131" first="Kylie" last="Kravig"] (17.8 ppg) for University, and [player_tooltip player_id="95221" first="Juliana" last="Garcia"] (17.2 ppg) for The Vanguard School.
<span style="font-size: 1rem;">While this is a quick snapshot at which teams have the most coming back, there are other indicators of how well a team will replace high scoring seniors. </span><span style="font-size: 1rem;">As more coaches begin to update their JV records in MaxPreps each year, this is something I can add to the formula and as the Prep Girls Hoops Watchlist is updated in the fall that’s also something that can be added to account for rising stars. Some programs just have great coaching and deep feeder programs, too!</span>
Watch for 1A, 2A, 4A, and 5A. Because bigger schools have deeper programs, I'm softening the affect of graduates for 4A and 5A in the formula.
<span style="font-size: 1rem;"> Hopefully these Graduation-Adjusted Rankings motivate some young teams and create some interesting bulletin board material!</span>
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