Who returns the most scoring? 4A Graduation Adjusted Rankings

Our series on Colorado’s Graduation-Adjusted Rankings (GAR) continues with the talented teams of 4A. This is a simple method to rank teams based on who’s graduated and who’s coming back. I took the playoff seeds from the 2021 state tournament and factored in the percentage of scoring each team is losing to graduation. The 2021-2022 season will be a very competitive one in 4A with more parity than the class has seen in at least four years. There are some big movers! Teams like Canon City, Thompson Valley, Palmer Ridge, and Northfield that graduate a small percentage of scoring jump up six spots or more, while Falcon, Erie, and Weld Central feel a particular post-graduation sting, each <em>dropping</em> just as far. Like any index, there are anomalies. Holy Family and Mullen each drop five spots in losing well over half of their scoring. But their private draws canvasing the Denver suburbs will replace those losses far quicker than the typical public school. Holy Family drops to #6 in the GAR index and Mullen drops to #9, but each will debut in the top four come wintertime. While this is just one piece of the pie on a team’s true ranking, it surely provides some insight on who’ll be moving up next year. Here’s the list for 4A’s top 32 teams: <table style="width: 87.1456%; height: 822px;" width="516"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Place"}">Tournament Seed</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Team Name"}">Team Name</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"PPG"}">PPG</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Graduation-Adjusted Ranking"}">% Senior Scoring</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">Graduation-Adjusted Ranking</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;"></td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;"></td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;"></td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;"></td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;"></td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" width="65" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1}">1</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" width="152" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Holy Family"}">Holy Family</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" width="65" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":65.5}">65.5</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" width="65" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.6900763358778627}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">69%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" width="65" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":8}">6</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2}">2</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Green Mountain"}">Green Mountain</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":68.3}">68.3</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.17862371888726208}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">18%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":1}">1</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3}">3</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Windsor"}">Windsor</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":75.8}">75.8</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.20448548812664907}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">20%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":2}">2</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4}">4</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Mullen"}">Mullen</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":70.7}">70.7</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.5714285714285714}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">57%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}">9</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5}">5</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Falcon"}">Falcon</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":60.4}">60.4</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.609271523178808}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">61%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":10}">11</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6}">6</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"George Washington"}">George Washington</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":57.9}">57.9</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.35751295336787564}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">36%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":3}">3</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7}">7</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Erie"}">Erie</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":66.9}">66.9</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.6292974588938715}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">63%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":14}">14</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":8}">8</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"The Classical Academy"}">The Classical Academy</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":58.3}">58.3</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.3379073756432247}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">34%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6}">5</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":9}">9</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Grand Junction Central"}">Grand Junction Central</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":51.4}">51.4</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.4941634241245136}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">49%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":11}">12</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":10}">10</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Palmer Ridge"}">Palmer Ridge</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":52.2}">52.2</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.21839080459770113}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">22%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":5}">4</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":11}">11</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Weld Central"}">Weld Central</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":57}">57.0</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.7684210526315789}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">77%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":17}">19</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":12}">12</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Mead"}">Mead</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":62.2}">62.2</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.17363344051446947}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">17%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":7}">10</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":13}">13</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Canon City"}">Canon City</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":46.5}">46.5</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.0989247311827957}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">10%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":6}">7</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":14}">14</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Northridge"}">Northridge</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":57.7}">57.7</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.18024263431542462}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">18%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":12}">13</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":15}">15</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Thompson Valley"}">Thompson Valley</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":56.4}">56.4</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">0%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":4}">8</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":16}">16</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"D’Evelyn"}">D’Evelyn</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":56.8}">56.8</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.24295774647887328}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">24%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":12}">15</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":17}">17</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Roosevelt"}">Roosevelt</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":62.6}">62.6</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.26357827476038337}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">26%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":14}">17</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":18}">18</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Evergreen"}">Evergreen</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":42.1}">42.1</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.171021377672209}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">17%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":13}">16</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":19}">19</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Thornton"}">Thornton</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":51.5}">51.5</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.5203883495145631}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">52%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">23</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":20}">20</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":2,"2":"Littleton"}">Littleton</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":50.7}">50.7</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":0.2938856015779093}" data-sheets-formula="=R[0]C[-1]/R[0]C[-2]">29%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;" data-sheets-value="{"1":3,"3":18}">18</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">21</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Coronado</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">43.4</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">47%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">24</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">22</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Glenwood Springs</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">40.7</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">28%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">22</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">23</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Severance</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">55.8</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">22%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">21</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">24</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Lewis-Palmer</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">47.7</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">51%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">26</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">25</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Berthoud</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">60.4</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">51%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">28</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">26</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Northfield</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">57.3</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">3%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">20</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">27</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Centaurus</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">41.8</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">24%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">25</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">28</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Palisade</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">43.9</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">86%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">37</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">29</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Durango</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">41.3</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">61%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">31</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">30</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Pueblo County</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">31.7</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">82%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">36</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">31</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Battle Mountain</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">45.5</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">76%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">34</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width: 15.8784%; text-align: center;">32</td> <td style="width: 27.5901%; text-align: center;">Frederick</td> <td style="width: 9.34686%; text-align: center;">48.3</td> <td style="width: 17.3424%; text-align: center;">13%</td> <td style="width: 18.4684%; text-align: center;">27</td> </tr> </tbody> </table>   The index is friendly to Green Mountain as the Rams lose only one senior in [player_tooltip player_id="95134" first="Courtney" last="Hank"]. But Hank was amongst the league leaders in rebounds, assists, points, and steals so the Rams’ loss is understated. They are also a program that needs to prove that their depth can rival the likes of Mullen, Holy Family, and Windsor. While tops in the GAR index, Green Mountain will likely enter the season in the 4-7 range, despite the high returning scoring of [player_tooltip player_id="95215" first="Jayda" last="Maves"], [player_tooltip player_id="117693" first="Avery" last="Oaster"], Shea Murphy, and Olivia Sears. Every off-season and preseason ranking will feature Windsor towards the top. They lose magical scorer, [player_tooltip player_id="116799" first="Kylie" last="Sanger"], but this program’s JV team could beat most varsity squads as the Wizards’ offense is loaded with class of 2022 golden tickets. [player_tooltip player_id="207078" first="Olivia" last="Reed"] creates the illusion that old school post play is easy. Her 260 points on only 176 shots easily ranks her among the most efficient players in Colorado. Jolie Jiricik shoots lights out at 10.2 PPG. [player_tooltip player_id="145408" first="Mykaela" last="Moore"] is a hustler who scrapped for 9.4 PPG. And [player_tooltip player_id="145404" first="Alexis" last="Backhaus"] casts a spell on anyone who forgets about her, capable of huge scoring bursts (she dropped 23 on Green Mountain in the 4A Final Four) and averaged 8.2 PPG. Mix in 2023 ultra-athletic defender, Samantha Darnell (7.1 PPG), and the Wizards return a state title caliber potion. Senior Night at Thompson Valley girls basketball was canceled this year but not because of COVID-19. Thompson Valley had no seniors. None. They jump from 15 up to 8 returning the inside/outside tandem of [player_tooltip player_id="117691" first="Amelia" last="Solt"] (20.2 PPG) and [player_tooltip player_id="95232" first="Charlee" last="Durtsche"] (10.5 PPG) and add depth with Becca Wiersema (6.1 PPG) and Marit Klagge (5.7 PPG). Look for Canon City to fight for a top 10 spot. [player_tooltip player_id="207104" first="Emily" last="Till"] (2022, 9.9 PPG, 12.6 RPG) flexes the muscle in this group as the Tigers return a balanced scoring attack. She’s joined by 2022 scorers, Madelyn Ley (9.1 PPG), Sydney Baxter (7.5 PPG), and Julia Nelson (6.3 PPG), along with 2024 riser Aly Richardson (5.1 PPG in her freshman season). Northfield has an experienced crew coming back, jumps six spots, and showcases twin 2022 towers, [player_tooltip player_id="117686" first="Malia" last="Heien"] at 6’1 and 11.8 PPG and [player_tooltip player_id="259783" first="Giavonna" last="Meeks"] at 6’0" and 10.2 PPG. Keep Palmer Ridge on your radar this year. The Bears return the 5’11" matchup nightmare of a guard, [player_tooltip player_id="259817" first="Mia" last="Womack"] (11.9 PPG), who’ll be joined in their lengthy backcourt lineup by 5’9" [player_tooltip player_id="117709" first="Rylie" last="McMullen"] (9.8 PPG). As for the state champs from Mullen, sure they lose 57% of their scoring output, but when you have the most athletic trio in 4A, [player_tooltip player_id="95172" first="Gracie" last="Gallegos"], [player_tooltip player_id="117681" first="Kilah" last="Freelon"], and [player_tooltip player_id="95170" first="Imani" last="Perez"], returning, you have to feel pretty good about the talent coming back. Gold Crown Foundation recently held a fundraiser for Mullen’s coach, Frank Cawley, and the Prep Network family sends our thoughts and prayers up for Coach Cawley as he battles Inclusion Body Myositis. Some very underrated teams we’ll talk about more before the season are Northridge, Mead, and Littleton. All three programs have built big momentum moving into 2021-2022. Watch for more info on them and check out the <a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/2021/05/who-returns-the-most-scoring-3a-graduation-adjusted-rankings/">3A</a> and <a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/2021/05/who-returns-the-most-scoring-5a-graduation-adjusted-rankings/">5A</a> Graduation-Adjusted Rankings as well!    