Class AA: section predictions

Couple quick thoughts before we dive into the details. Three Class AA sections have moved to seeding every team, rather than crowning subsection champs in pods decided by location. We're never going to truly avoid many first-round blowouts — I see you, Grant McGinnis — but that helps avoid the two best teams squaring off in the de facto semifinals, rending the title game a moot point. This has been especially troubling the last 3-4 years in Section 1A with Goodhue and Lyle. A section administrator told me the boys and girls sides have to both agree with such a move and many coaches remain split on this initiative, even at the same schools. So, here we sit with a likely 1A subsection next year featuring Goodhue, Lyle and Hayfield. That could be three of the Top 5 teams in Class A next year, while the other side struggles to have anyone over the .500 mark. Anyway, that's a battle for another day. I'll be posting recaps and thoughts from the following games today: 11am — Cotter v KW; 1pm — Winona v Byron; 2pm — Hayfield v Lourdes; 245pm — Northfield v KM; 630pm — Lakeville North v Farmington; 8pm — Goodhue v Lyle. Section 1 #8 Cotter v #4 Kenyon-Wanamingo #2 Hayfield v #3 Rochester Lourdes There's not a #1 seed to be found! And we’re guaranteed of a new Class AA state champ after PEM’s improbable demise Tuesday night against Cotter. To start the year, I wrote that this section was wide open and it seems I was right. Let’s just forget that I also picked Caledonia to emerge, ok? Anyway, Cotter is peaking at the right time and K-W has been sluggish of late. I’m expecting a much more competitive game than the 33-point shellacking the Knights put on the Ramblers over the holidays. Hayfield has been ranked Top 10 all season, but Lourdes matches up well with the Vikings. Don’t be surprised if the Eagles spring this upset today and punch their ticket to state. Prediction: Lourdes over Kenyon-Wanamingo Section 2 #1 Norwood-Young America v #3 Glencoe-Silver Lake #1 NRHEG v #2 Blue Earth Area This bracket was almost a beautiful disaster. G-SL throttled #2 St. Peter by 17 on Thursday thanks to some very untimely injuries. The Saints were the only team to defeat NYA this year, but the lethargic Raiders needed overtime to slip by Halley Busse and GFW. Marc actually attended these games and posted his recaps yesterday, so you can <a href="http://www.northstargirlshoops.com/news_article/show/765085?referrer_id=866040">click here to read all the details</a>. I really like NRHEG with the Wagner twins and 6-3 junior Betsy Schoenrock…but I think NYA matches up well there and advances, despite Thursday's near disaster. Prediction: NYA over NRHEG Section 3 #1 New London-Spicer v #1 Tracy-Milroy-Balaton This section is actually ahead of schedule, having played its semifinal games on Thursday night and now preparing for this fun one next Friday. I’m a big fan of both teams. I watched TMB totally blanket St. Croix Lutheran while holding them scoreless for something like 15 straight minutes. That’s unheard of against a good team. They do it with textbook positioning and strong rotations. Junior PG Kaylee Kirk is the straw that stirs this drink. But here’s the thing — I don’t think TMB has the horses to hang with NLS, which is coached by legend Mike Dreier and will just be too physically big for TMB to handle. Plus, I’ll take Shea Oman over Kirk. Prediction: NLS over TMB by 12 Section 4 #1 Minnehaha v #8 Trinity #4 Minneapolis Edison v St. Agnes #3 Columbia Heights v #6 Concordia Academy #7 St. Croix Prep v #2 St. Croix Lutheran It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of Minnehaha’s squad. They have size inside, scoring on the wing and athletes galore. The only team I see capable of knocking them off would be St. Croix Lutheran…but I’ve watched the Crusaders play their two worst game in each of the last two years in ugly losses to Kenyon-Wanamingo and TMB. Are we going to get the team that stunned Holy Angels by 12 or the one that went through the aforementioned scoring drought against TMB? I’m going to stick to my guns and pick Minnehaha. Prediction: Minnehaha over St. Croix Lutheran Section 5 #1 Watertown-Mayer v #8 Maple Lake #4 Southwest Christian v #5 Litchfield #3 Holy Family v #6 Annandale #7 Providence Academy v #2 Eden Valley-Watkins Wow, what a section! For some perspective, Annandale was a Top 10 team in our poll before hitting the skids around Christmas. They lost 5 of 6 to end the year — with the only win during that stretch against top-seeded Watertown-Mayer. And the Cardinals, who feature three high-quality bigs standing at least 6-foot, got the #6 seed. In other words, whatever I predict here is almost assured not to happen. Here’s the thing — the Wright County Conference is absolutely loaded and likely to send 4 teams to state this year. While you have to respect what EV-W has done this year, I suspect we’ll be seeing Watertown-Mayer punch their ticket to state to represent the WCC. Prediction: Watertown-Mayer over Annandale Section 6 #1 Rush City v #4 Milaca #3 Pine City v #2 St. Cloud Cathedral #1 Sauk Centre v #5 Melrose #3 Albany v #2 Osakis Rush City is one of two undefeated teams left in Class AA, but the West bracket looks significantly more difficult than the East. Sauk has been #2 basically all season behind Roseau and Osakis is ranked #16. Well, Sauk also beat Osakis by 29 on Jan 24. Rush City’s record is mighty impressive. Its strength of schedule? Not so much. The Tigers didn’t play a single ranked team all season and only had one game that was even close — 9 point margin — so the jury remains out on whether they’re legit. Plus, they’ll likely have to get by Cathedral for the right to face Sauk…and Cathedral recently played a 62-56 game with Sauk. If we’ve learned anything in recent years, it’s never bet against Maesyn Theisen. I’m sticking with that again here. Prediction: Sauk Centre over St. Cloud Cathedral Section 7 #3 Crosby Ironton v #2 Pequot Lakes #4 Proctor v #1 Duluth Marshall #3 Two Harbors v #2 International Falls #5 Aitkin v #1 Esko Esko opened the season #2 in our polls, but finished at #11. The Eskomos are still the favorite on their side of the section, but they split with Pequot during the regular season and Duluth Marshall is probably the feel-good story of the season after snapping its 12-year, 88-game conference losing streak en route to earning the top seed on the other side of the bracket? So who emerges? I’ll take Pequot’s size in 6-1 senior Corinna Ruud and 6-2 sophomore Olivia Lane. Prediction: Pequot Lakes over Esko Section 8 #1 Roseau v #8 BGMR #5 DGF v #4 Perham #2 Staples-Motley v #10 Park Rapids #6 East Grand Forks v #3 Barnesville Given Roseau’s strength and track record, I’m tempted to write this one off as a snoozer. However, don’t sleep on Staples. The Cardinals are up to #12 in our poll and sit at a tidy 21-4, having won 8 of 9 heading into today’s game. Can Claire Wolhowe lead her squad to the unlikely upset of our odds-on favorite to win it all? I’m not betting on it, but it’s certainly possible. Prediction: Roseau over Staples-Motley