Game of the Week: Eastview looking to go to state undefeated

QRF takes a pretty good beating in certain circles—OK, in every circle. But, in Section 3AAAA, QRF had Apple Valley #2 and Park #3. The seeds went the other way, but the Eagles knocked off the Wolfpack 35-33 in game played, nominally, at least, at a Park pace. But, make no mistake. QRF didn’t win that game. Apple Valley won that game, thanks to a new look and a new philosophy and, dare I say it, a new sheriff in town. Last year Apple Valley had awesome talent including a D1 recruit and 2 D2s. They started out 18-2 before they reverted to their prior, stubborn resistance to playing defense and lost 5 of 8 down the stretch, including 3 major upsets, the 3rd and final a shocking season-ending section semi-final loss to 17-12 Rosemount. So Apple Valley faced a rebuilding year and…oh, wait, did I say rebuilding? Well, 1st year coach Bryan Doughty would beg to differ. “We are not treating this as a rebuilding year,” he said last fall, “but rather a reloading year.” And, wouldn’t you know, his team came within 4 wins of last year’s and, more to the point, they’ve advanced one big, big game further into the post-season. Now, they’re just one win away from what would be their 1st state tournament berth in 15 years. Not that anybody anticipates that, because they’re facing #1-ranked, undefeated Eastview, which is gunning not only to enter the state tournament unbeaten, but is also gunning for its 6th straight state tournament appearance and its 8th in 10 years. As you undoubtedly know, the Lightning won it all in 2014 and took 2nd place in 2015. A section final is barely even a goal, it’s a means to the true end, which is a state title. And, don’t forget that Eastview beat Apple Valley 64-38 in December and, frankly, another score like that is probably about what most casual observers will be expecting Wednesday night at Concordia-St. Paul at 7 p.m. But some of you remember that more recently, in February, Eastview edged the Eagles 50-45. Who knows, maybe that will turn out to be more indicative of Wednesday night’s score. Who knows? If there’s a true indicator of a possible upset, it’s that this Apple Valley team bears no resemblance whatsoever to Apple Valley teams of recent years. Doughty’s frame of reference for success is, well, at least 2 experiences. One was as an all-state forward on Anoka’s 1992 state champions. Most of you don’t remember how those Anoka teams ground out their wins one long possession at a time with plenty of physicality to go around. More recently, he was assistant to Jeremy Post at White Bear Lake for 4 years. Some of Post’s teams could score, but all of them played a spirited defensive game that often takes the Bears further than you think it should. Doughty promised that Apple Valley would play defense, and they have, giving up just 49 ppg compared to the 59 given up last year by a more athletic group of girls. Against Park and coach Stephanie Tolkinen in the section semi, it predictably came down to who could make the most stops over the final minutes of that game. Who would have thought it would be Apple Valley? By comparison, however, Eastview has given up just 41 ppg, the least of all 64 Class AAAA teams, and they’ve done it not by slowing the game down to a crawl. They still scored 61 ppg, 16th best among all 64 Class AAAA teams. They do it with probably the best help defense in the business, with 6-3 senior post Megan Walstad as the final line of defense, blocking and altering shots in the lane. And they do it by never, ever taking so much as a possession off. Ironically, when Molly Kasper took over at Eastview 3 years ago, some folks said, Who’s she? What’s she ever done? Well, she led Rosemount to a 17-9 record that year, which is not bad for the Irish. But, the proof has been in the pudding. The Lightning have not missed a beat, and they still play with the same intensity you saw under Paul Goetz and under Melissa Guebert. Now, it’s true that all Kasper had to do was keep Eastview at the level it was already at. But, that’s a heck of a high level. Meanwhile, Doughty is looking to make Apple Valley the best it’s been in a quarter-century, since the golden age of Ruth Sinn and Carole Ann Shudlick. A lot of people probably feel that he’s already on track—not there, but on track. But, a win on Wednesday night—that would put the Eagles way ahead of the game! What are the chances, really? The Match-Ups Post—In the post, two of the state’s top post defenders will face off. The difference is that Eastview’s 6-3 senior Megan Walstad also scores 16 ppg. Apple Valley’s 6-2 junior Mykel Parham remains a work in progress on the offensive end. Advantage Eastview. The 4 Spot—Eastview 6-0 senior Andrea Abrams squares off against Apple Valley’s 6-2 senior Brynne Rolland, one of the state’s top offensive posts. Rolland scores 18 ppg and can score all the way out to the 3-point line and beyond. Abrams averaged 8 ppg for the season but has the capability of doing more, as she did with 19 points against Eagan in the 1st round of section play. Still, advantage Apple Valley. The Big Wing—Each team has a big wing and a small wing. The big wings are Eastview 5-11 senior Mariah Alipate and Apple Valley’s 5-10 junior Megan Baer. Both are big and strong, and can score both inside and out. They figure to pretty much negate one another. The Small Wing—Eastview’s 5-9 junior Macy Guebert has been up and down. She scored 3 against Eagan, for example, and 18 against Hastings in the section semi. Apple Valley’s Chynna Young is a 5-8 freshman who hasn’t played in a game like this one. She scored 8 ppg during the year, but just 8 combined in the 2 section games so far. Advantage Eastview. The Point—People sometimes mistake Emma Carpenter for a power forward or at least a wing. She’s 5-10, after all. But she is also pretty quick with great handles and a great shot. She gives Eastview a big edge over Apple Valley’s 1-by-committee of Anna Mutch, Kalena Myers, Molly Moynihan and Hanna Kocher. Even Baer might put in a few possessions at the 1 for Apple Valley. The Bench—Eastview has the sisters, senior Courtney and freshman Cassidy Carson, along with junior Lauren Glas. The scoring may fall off a bit when the Lightning goes to the bench, but the defensive intensity surely does not, nor the rebounding and ball-hawking. Meanwhile, I have already mentioned Apple Valley’s bench, consisting almost entirely of backup point guards. Advantage Eastview. The Bottom Line—That’s a 4-1 edge for Eastview so, yes, an Apple Valley win would be a big upset. But any team that lost to a playoff opponent 50-45 a month ago has the potential to do the impossible. Unlikely, yes. Impossible? You tell me.