By the Numbers, Vol 4: Dec. 17 through Dec. 22
As I have said before, the model can only use the data that it has to assign a rating and make predictions. Unfortunately, some of that data is difficult to come by. Scores can come in days after the game…
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Continue ReadingAs I have said before, the model can only use the data that it has to assign a rating and make predictions. Unfortunately, some of that data is difficult to come by. Scores can come in days after the game was played. Scores can come in reversed or the score from the boy’s game can be reported as the score for the girl’s game.
I bring this up because a few weeks ago, Lake of the Woods was the losing team in the Biggest Upset. However, Lake of the Woods did not lose this game. The score reported was the boy’s score between the same two teams. This score also prevented Lake of the Woods from being the biggest riser in class A for that same week.
The correction has since been made and the Bears are now in their rightful place in the rankings, but that does not mean this will not happen again. I hope that I am able to catch as many of these mistakenly reported scores as possibly can because accuracy of the data is important. Consider this a minor plea for accurate score reporting around the state.
The rankings will be updated throughout the next few weeks but the column will come back after the New Year. Happy Holidays!
Biggest Upset
Red Lake County Central 52, Fosston 44 (2.39% chance of upset)
Fosston had recently been in a competitive game with Ada-Borup. Red Lake County Central had lost their only two games against teams that would compare to Fosston. These two teams will meet again at the end of January and although Fosston will most likely still be favored, it will not be as big of a surprise if RLCC comes away the victors.
Honorable Mention: Fairmont 48, St. Peter 45 (2.89%), MACCRAY 48, Hancock 31 (4.22%)
Biggest Gainers
A – Murray County Central (last week Class A #73, currently #50)
The Rebels benefit this week from a missing score being entered from last week, so the blowout win over Ellsworth counts for this week. Add that win to another blowout win over Edgerton and a loss to a solid Hills-Beaver Creek team and the Rebels become the Biggest Gainer in class A.
AA – Medford (last week Class AA #44, currently #19)
Medford remained undefeated on the season with three more wins this week, capped off by winning a battle of unbeatens with Waterville-Elysian-Morristown. Section 2AA is shaping up to be quite competitive early in the season and should provide for an exciting tournament at the end of the season.
AAA – Cloquet (last week Class AAA #33, currently #24)
The Lumberjacks are in this spot largely due to the early season schedule of North Branch. Cloquet went 2-1 on the week, all section games, beating Hermantown and North Branch while falling to Princeton. Since North Branch has won three games by blowout, they have an inflated value in the current system and a win over them outweighs the loss to Princeton.
AAAA – St. Louis Park (last week Class AAAA #22, currently #12)
The highlight of the week for the Orioles was definitely the win over Minnetonka. Combine that with a blowout win over Fridley and you get quite the successful week. The Orioles are currently favored by the model in their next eight games, and sixteen of their last eighteen.
Biggest Fallers
A – New York Mills (last week Class A #44, currently #68)
Beginning the week with a close win over Pillager was not a great start for New York Mills. With the more difficult part of their week coming on Thursday and Friday with Parkers Prairie and Brandon/Evansville respectively, they needed a stronger showing on Tuesday. They followed the close win with a couple of blowout losses.
AA – Glencoe-Silver Lake (last week Class AA #21, currently #49)
The Panthers could be a part of the aforementioned competitive section 2AA, but they will need to avoid weeks like the one they just finished. Two 20+ point losses this week have forced them down the rankings. Losing to Norwood-Young America by 24 points, while not great, can be explained. The 20-point loss to Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop is more difficult to explain.
AAA – Totino-Grace (last week Class AAA #23, currently #29)
Totino-Grace started the season with some good wins and competitive losses. Then their schedule really ramped up and they faced an uphill battle. Losses to improved squads in Robbinsdale Armstrong and Elk River this week dropped the Eagles.
AAAA – Buffalo (last week Class AAAA #15, currently #24)
Movement in these rankings occurs when you do not live up the expectations the model has for you. That is the case with Buffalo this week. The Bison beat Chanhassen and lost to Chaska and both results were reasonably expected. The problem is they did not win by as many as expected and lost by more than expected.
Highest Scoring Games
It was an exciting week for points as it took 160 combined points to crack this list. There are definitely teams on this list we have seen before and will see again, but I enjoy seeing what new teams make the list each week.
- Holy Angels 90, St. Paul Como Park 88
- Becker 86, St. Cloud Cathedral 83
- Carlton 87, Ogilvie 77
- Hopkins 99, Robbinsdale Cooper 64
- North Woods 81, Barnum 79
Predictions for Next Week
We are going to hold off on the predictions section for this week due to tournaments and the unknown matchups they cause. If you would like a specific game prediction, feel free to ask me on twitter, @MNBBRatings.