By the Numbers, Vol. 7: Will the Undefeateds Make it Through the Regular Season?
Here are a few numbers on each of the eleven remaining undefeated teams, in order from least likely to finish the regular season undefeated (Wayzata, who still has to play six games against teams in the top 12 of AAAA)…
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Continue ReadingHere are a few numbers on each of the eleven remaining undefeated teams, in order from least likely to finish the regular season undefeated (Wayzata, who still has to play six games against teams in the top 12 of AAAA) to most likely (Minneota).
Wayzata (16-0, projected 23-3)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 1.64%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/1 at Hopkins (18.6% chance to win)
- Second toughest game remaining: 2/22 vs. Hopkins (28.4%)
Grand Meadow (15-0, projected 22-2)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 5.36%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/8 vs. Goodhue (17.3%)
- Second toughest game remaining: 2/12 vs. Winona Cotter (53.3%)
Farmington (15-0, projected 24-1)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 17.08%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/14 at Eastview (53.4%)
- Second toughest game remaining: 1/29 at Apple Valley (64.3%)
Medford (13-0, projected 24-2)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 17.16%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/21 at Jordan (61.1%)
- Second toughest game remaining: 2/1 at Blue Earth Area (70.6%)
Menahga (15-0, projected 25-1)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 22.95%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/9 vs. Eden-Valley Watkins (31.3%)
- Second toughest game remaining: 1/22 at West Central Area (83.8%)
Parkers Prairie (13-0, projected 25-1)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 31.9%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/9 vs. Ada-Borup/Norman County West (56.1%)
- Second toughest game remaining: 2/7 at Underwood (80.0%)
Stephen-Argyle (13-0 vs. MN teams, projected 19-1 vs. MN teams)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 39.16%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/18 vs. Crookston (69.9%)
- Second toughest game remaining: 1/21 at Kittson County Central (81.2%)
Eden Valley-Watkins (15-0, projected 25-1)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 49.01%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/9 vs. Menahga (68.7%)
- Second toughest game remaining: 2/14 at Annandale (86.1%)
Hopkins (14-0 vs. MN teams, projected 21-1 vs. MN teams)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 50.05%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/22 at Wayzata (71.6%)
- Second toughest game remaining: 2/1 vs. Wayzata (81.4%)
Hills-Beaver Creek (12-0 vs. MN teams, projected 19-0 vs. MN teams)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 61.86%
- Toughest game remaining: 2/12 at Southwest MN Christian (67.9%)
- Second toughest game remaining: TBD at Murray County Central (93.3%)
Minneota (13-0, projected 25-0)
- Chance for undefeated regular season: 73.79%
- Toughest game remaining: 1/21 vs. Wabasso (89.1%)
- Second toughest game remaining: 2/8 at Southwest MN Christian (89.3%)
Biggest Upset
Little Falls 44, Milaca 40 (1.86% chance of upset)
Little Falls picked up their second win in their last three games. Milaca had recently handed Foley their first loss of the season, so losing to the Flyers was a huge surprise. They will look for revenge in the rematch on February 19.
Honorable Mention: Cristo Rey Jesuit 66, Hope Academy 55 (3.11%), Brainerd 54, Alexandria 47 (4.44%)
Biggest Gainers
A decision has been made to change the philosophy of the “Biggest Gainers and Fallers.” Instead of identifying the teams whose rankings change the most, we will identify the teams whose efficiency margins change the most. This is more directly related to the play of the team instead of moving up or down based on the play of the teams around them.
A – Verndale (last week Class A #57, currently #37)
- 1/15 @ New York Mills W 50-48 (predicted score 50-51)
- 1/17 vs. Pine River-Backus L 38-48 (37-58)
- 1/18 vs. Wadena-Deer Creek W 38-28 (50-43)
AA – Breck (last week Class AA #117, currently #115)
- 1/16 @ Mounds Park Academy W 45-19 (50-42)
- 1/18 vs. Providence Academy L 31-52 (24-65)
AAA – Fergus Falls (last week Class AAA #21, currently #18)
- 1/15 @ Moorhead W 73-52 (57-68)
- 1/18 vs. Hawley W 59-49 (59-56)
AAAA – Minneapolis Washburn (last week Class AAAA #63, currently #61)
- 1/15 vs. Brooklyn Center W 77-64 (49-48)
- 1/17 vs. Minneapolis Southwest L 46-48 (38-54)
- 1/19 vs. Grand Rapids L 34-54 (32-83)
Biggest Fallers
A – Hope Academy (last week Class A #99, currently #114)
- 1/16 vs. Cristo Rey Jesuit L 55-66 (54-33)
- 1/18 @ Liberty Classical Academy W 64-31 (70-14)
AA – Eden Valley-Watkins (last week Class AA #1, currently #1)
- 1/14 @ Atwater-Cosmos-Grove City W 83-28 (67-19)
- 1/15 @ Melrose W 87-54 (62-24)
- 1/17 vs. Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted W 64-27 (75-29)
AAA – Big Lake (last week Class AAA #22, currently #26)
- 1/15 @ St. Francis L 43-64 (69-56)
- 1/18 @ St. Michael-Albertville L 34-72 (50-82)
- 1/19 @ Willmar L 59-72 (48-72)
AAAA – Moorhead (last week Class AAAA #22, currently #25)
- 1/15 vs. Fergus Falls L 52-73 (68-57)
- 1/18 vs. Stillwater L 48-81 (65-78)
- 1/19 vs. Elk River L 41-56 (57-58)
Highest Scoring Games
Average total in games this week was 104.8 points. No especially high scoring games this week as 158 points in an overtime game tops the chart.
- Esko 82, Pequot Lakes 76 (OT)
- Duluth Marshall 93, Moose Lake-Willow River 64
- Triton 81, Byron 76
- Charles 82, Rushford-Peterson 74
- Hopkins 91, Eden Prairie 61
Predictions for Next Week
Predictions can be found on Twitter (@MNBBRatings) so they are accurate throughout the week. Remember, they change throughout the week based on the results from earlier in the week. I will still put a few games in the column, but the mass of predictions can be found on Twitter.
Monday
- Mountain Iron-Buhl at Cromwell-Wright (Mountain Iron-Buhl 69-55 PEV: 76.4)
Tuesday
- Benilde-St. Margaret’s at St. Louis Park (Benilde-St. Margaret’s 62-57 PEV: 83.5)
- Stillwater at Forest Lake (Stillwater 66-62 PEV: 86.7)
- Prior Lake at Lakeville North (Prior Lake 83-80 PEV: 87.1)
- Willmar at Alexandria (Alexandria 56-54 PEV: 85.2)
- Wayzata at St. Michael-Albertville (Wayzata 66-62 PEV: 87.6)
- Red Wing at Mankato West (Mankato West 64-62 PEV: 79.7)
Thursday
- Esko at Cromwell-Wright (Cromwell-Wright 57-54 PEV: 81.2)
- Cloud Apollo at Big Lake (Big Lake 77-75 PEV: 76.9)
Friday
- Waconia at Holy Family (Holy Family 73-65 PEV: 81.4)
- Hill-Murray at Simley (Hill-Murray 51-49 PEV: 81.8)
- Apple Valley at Prior Lake (Apple Valley 78-75 PEV: 89.0)
- Lakeville South at Lakeville North (Lakeville North 64-60 PEV: 80.2)
Saturday
- Worthington at Redwood Valley (Redwood Valley 83-80 PEV: 73.5)
- Duluth Marshall at Royalton (Duluth Marshall 71-70 PEV: 73.0)