Section Previews By the Numbers: AAAA
The section previews that follow are determined by the computer ratings found on the Team Rankings page. Each value represents the percent chance a team reaches that round of the tournament. The final column represents how many tournaments would need…
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Continue ReadingThe section previews that follow are determined by the computer ratings found on the Team Rankings page. Each value represents the percent chance a team reaches that round of the tournament. The final column represents how many tournaments would need to played for that team to win it once.
Section 1AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Farmington | 99.95 | 97.24 | 79.53 | 1.3 |
3 | New Prague | 99.53 | 86.92 | 19.36 | 5.2 |
2 | Rochester Mayo | 94.78 | 12.96 | 0.68 | 147 |
5 | Lakeville South | 53.95 | 1.98 | 0.35 | 284 |
4 | Rochester John Marshall | 46.05 | 0.77 | 0.08 | 1287 |
7 | Northfield | 5.22 | 0.07 | <0.01 | 257431 |
6 | Owatonna | 0.47 | 0.04 | <0.01 | 587526 |
8 | Rochester Century | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3265287 |
The Favorite
Farmington spent most of the season as the third undefeated in AAAA, but they finished 7-4 in their last 11 games. Fortunately for them, none of the four losses came to section opponents where they finished 7-0 on the season.
The Contenders
Lakeville North can put up points and in the section tournament it just takes a team to get hot for a couple games to make a run. Two double digit losses to top seed Farmington are cause for concern but a capable offense can make it work for one game.
The Sleepers
Lakeville South, on the other hand, has losses to Farmington by 5 and 10 points. The computer only gives them about a 10% chance to make the finals, but they should be able to build on their experiences to play a competitive game with Farmington.
My Pick: Farmington
Section 2AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Chaska | 99.66 | 87.15 | 47.13 | 2.1 |
2 | Eden Prairie | 94.88 | 61.96 | 34.27 | 2.9 |
3 | Minnetonka | 93.08 | 36.67 | 15.37 | 6.5 |
5 | Edina | 51.57 | 8.04 | 2.21 | 45 |
4 | Shakopee | 48.43 | 4.8 | 0.89 | 112 |
6 | Prior Lake | 6.92 | 0.71 | 0.07 | 1505 |
7 | Chanhassen | 5.12 | 0.66 | 0.06 | 1667 |
8 | Bloomington Jefferson | 0.34 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 855413 |
The Favorite
Eden Prairie is the number one seed here and will have to be beaten at home for their season to end. The only section that plays both the semifinals and the finals at the home of the top remaining seed gives the Eagles a much more significant edge than they would have had otherwise.
The Contenders
Chaska is the biggest threat to the Eagles title hopes. If someone else knocks off Eden Prairie, then Chaska is in line to host, which will give them a significant edge. Shakopee is not to be taken lightly either as they finished 5-1 against section opponents, although the two teams they didn’t play were Eden Prairie and Minnetonka.
The Sleepers
Minnetonka may only be 9-16, but they played a one possession game at Eden Prairie to end the season and finished just 3-8 in games decided by 10 points or less. The computer gives them the third best chance to win the deepest section in AAAA.
My Pick: Chaska
Section 3AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rosemount | 99.69 | 85.72 | 55.44 | 1.8 |
2 | Lakeville North | 98.24 | 66.2 | 30.2 | 3.3 |
3 | Burnsville | 82.7 | 30.81 | 9.92 | 10 |
4 | Apple Valley | 79.49 | 12.86 | 3.8 | 26 |
6 | Eagan | 17.3 | 2.88 | 0.38 | 266 |
5 | Eastview | 20.5 | 1.4 | 0.22 | 450 |
7 | Hastings | 1.76 | 0.12 | <0.01 | 37179 |
8 | Park of Cottage Grove | 0.31 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 251270 |
The Favorite
Eastview is down a little from last year’s juggernaut, but they still finished 21-5 and come away with better than a coin flip’s chance to go to state. Although Burnsville or Henry Sibley could provide a semifinal challenge, the bigger challenge awaits in the finals with the most likely opponents being Apple Valley or Rosemount.
The Contenders
Rosemount is on a heater right now, having won eight in a row including wins over Farmington, Eastview, and Apple Valley. They should come in knowing they have a chance having beaten both of the higher seeds already. Apple Valley has dipped a little at the end of the season, losing three of five, but they have shown the ability to compete at a high level.
The Sleepers
Burnsville has made a big jump from last year and earned the four seed. A tough first round game against Henry Sibley could be the end but the Blaze could also challenge Eastview for a spot in the finals.
My Pick: Eastview
Section 4AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Stillwater | 99.99999999995 | 94.47 | 88.95 | 1.1 |
3 | White Bear Lake | 99.04 | 52.83 | 4.31 | 23 |
2 | East Ridge | 97.83 | 47.07 | 4.13 | 24 |
4 | Woodbury | 68.51 | 4.12 | 2.01 | 50 |
5 | Cretin-Derham Hall | 31.49 | 1.42 | 0.59 | 169 |
7 | Tartan | 2.17 | 0.07 | <0.01 | 464446 |
6 | St. Paul Central | 0.96 | 0.03 | <0.01 | 1138782 |
8 | North St. Paul | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Stillwater is a huge favorite to represent 4AAAA at the state tournament. They have separated themselves at the end of the year as the third best team in the state behind Hopkins and Wayzata. The already huge advantage Stillwater has is emphasized by the top half of the bracket being weaker than the bottom.
The Contenders
Cretin-Derham Hall has had two cracks at Stillwater so far this year and they have come away with two single digit losses. If you can play with a team, you have the chance to beat them although it will require a strong effort.
The Sleepers
White Bear Lake has already defeated Cretin-Derham Hall once this year, so don’t be surprised if it happens again and the Bears find themselves in the section final.
My Pick: Stillwater
Section 5AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Park Center | 99.66 | 83.98 | 66.74 | 1.5 |
2 | Centennial | 92.28 | 78.6 | 24.25 | 4.1 |
4 | Spring Lake Park | 66.44 | 11.28 | 5.2 | 19 |
5 | Champlin Park | 33.56 | 4.72 | 1.98 | 50 |
3 | Roseville | 84.91 | 16.78 | 1.54 | 65 |
7 | Osseo | 7.72 | 3.45 | 0.24 | 420 |
6 | Mounds View | 15.09 | 1.17 | 0.04 | 2683 |
8 | Irondale | 0.34 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 275223 |
The Favorite
Park Center is the top seed and that benefits them in that they get to avoid Centennial and Roseville until the finals.
The Contenders
This is a three horse race as Roseville and Centennial join Park Center at the top. The potential semifinal between Roseville and Centennial will be a high level game with the winner heading to the section final with confidence.
The Sleepers
If Champlin Park gets out of round one against Spring Lake Park, they actually have a better chance than an of the bottom five seeds to get to the final.
My Pick: Centennial
Section 6AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hopkins | 99.9999999991 | 99.52 | 84.54 | 1.2 |
2 | Wayzata | 99.95 | 91.05 | 15.24 | 6.6 |
3 | St. Louis Park | 99.86 | 8.95 | 0.19 | 520 |
5 | Robbinsdale Cooper | 82.51 | 0.48 | 0.03 | 3865 |
4 | Minneapolis South | 17.49 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3579681 |
7 | Robbinsdale Armstrong | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 237625816 |
6 | Minneapolis Southwest | 0.14 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 116588706832 |
8 | Minneapolis Washburn | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 710437152134977920 |
The Favorite
Hopkins has had the most dominant season that I have seen since I started the ratings 4 years ago and this includes all classes. They just finished the regular season with a 21 point win over the clear cut second best team in the state. I think that defines the term favorite.
The Contenders
Between Hopkins and Wayzata, they account for 99.2% of the probability to go to state. This speaks to the high level of basketball these teams are playing as there are other solid teams in the section.
The Sleepers
St. Louis Park and Robbinsdale Armstrong have had a very successful seasons and in a different section, things would look more optimistic. Unfortunately for both teams, they are stuck with the two towers looming in the semifinals.
My Pick: Hopkins
Section 7AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Blaine | 92.48 | 65.01 | 37.84 | 2.6 |
1 | Andover | 100 | 65.15 | 35.47 | 2.8 |
3 | Forest Lake | 71.92 | 25.67 | 10.09 | 9.9 |
4 | Cambridge-Isanti | 66.39 | 23.89 | 9.93 | 10 |
5 | Anoka | 33.61 | 10.96 | 4.21 | 24 |
6 | Duluth East | 28.08 | 7.45 | 2.16 | 46 |
7 | Coon Rapids | 7.52 | 1.88 | 0.29 | 343 |
The Favorite
Forest Lake is the heaviest of favorites in AAAA with around an 88% chance to head to state. The closest of the six section games they played was a 22 point win over the 8 seed Duluth East.
The Contenders
It’s hard to call teams contenders when there is one team with an 88% chance of advancing, but we’ll go with Andover here. The computer likes them as a slight favorite over Cambridge-Isanti to get to the section final.
The Sleepers
Typically I wouldn’t call a 2 seed a sleeper, but it feels like everyone not named Forest Lake is a sleeper in this section. If you told me Cambridge-Isanti would have a greater than 4% chance of going to state at the beginning of the year, I would’ve said they had a heck of a year.
My Pick: Forest Lake
Section 8AAAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | STMA | 100 | 94.67 | 85.95 | 1.2 |
2 | Maple Grove | 97.28 | 58 | 7.74 | 13 |
3 | Elk River | 89.58 | 40.21 | 4.41 | 23 |
4 | Moorhead | 61 | 3.33 | 1.14 | 87 |
5 | Rogers | 39 | 2.01 | 0.71 | 142 |
6 | Buffalo | 10.42 | 1.54 | 0.05 | 2019 |
7 | Brainerd | 2.72 | 0.24 | <0.01 | 37625 |
The Favorite
St. Michael-Albertville looks to return to the state tournament for the first time in three years. They have a great chance to do so as they have beaten their top five contenders in the section.
The Contenders
Maple Grove lost to STMA in their first game of the season, then laid an egg against Chaska. Since then, the Crimson have been a top 10 team in AAAA. The computer gives them over a 20% chance to win the section, which is more than a glimmer of hope.
The Sleepers
Elk River has played both Maple Grove and STMA to close losses this season, so although it will be difficult, don’t completely count out the Elks.
My Pick: St. Michael-Albertville