Section Previews By the Numbers: 4A, 5A, 6A, 7A, 8A
The section previews that follow are determined by the computer ratings found on the Team Rankings page. Each value represents the percent chance a team reaches that round of the tournament. The final column represents how many tournaments would need…
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Continue ReadingThe section previews that follow are determined by the computer ratings found on the Team Rankings page. Each value represents the percent chance a team reaches that round of the tournament. The final column represents how many tournaments would need to played for that team to win it once.
Section 4A
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Mayer Lutheran | 100 | 100 | 99.999993 | 93.09 | 69.29 | 1.44 |
2 | Heritage Christian | 100 | 100 | 99.99996 | 94.94 | 23.66 | 4.23 |
3 | Lester Prairie/Holy Trinity | 100 | 100 | 99.99999 | 5.06 | 0.14 | 701.38 |
4 | Legacy Christian | 100 | 100 | 90.98 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 406645039948.48 |
9 | Hope Academy | 100 | 98.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 29758302706436 |
5 | United Christian Academy | 100 | 93.09 | 2.11 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 350777296465327 |
7 | West Lutheran | 100 | 93.44 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 29930662291885500 |
8 | Liberty Classical | 100 | 1.99 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1634621280361779968 |
13 | Trinity School | 99.9995 | 6.91 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2.8103079024187E+19 |
10 | PACT | 100 | 6.56 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 5.3716614550765E+21 |
6 | Avail Academy | 100 | 99.62 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1.5579870274464E+24 |
11 | Community of Peace | 72.9 | 0.07 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | -2.2876695219287E+19 |
14 | High School for the Recording Arts | 27.10 | 0.3 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 6.7129059061602E+19 |
12 | International School | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | -3.9234660002406E+34 |
15 | Lincoln International | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Heritage Christian is the biggest favorite of the 32 sections in Minnesota. If they do not win section 4A, something crazy has definitely happened. Even had they not be granted a double by to the quarterfinals, the bottom half of the section is not good enough to make a dent in their insanely great chance to get back to state.
The Contenders
Mayer Lutheran received the 5 seed and did not secure a double bye. The only downfall about that considering they are given a 100% chance to win that game is that you bring in the possibility of injury. Also, this section goes through Heritage Christian no matter what, so it doesn’t really matter when you play them because you will have to beat them. CHOF should in all likelihood be playing in the section final, so they also count as a contender.
The Sleepers
Cristo Rey Jesuit received the 3 seed and although they are only given the seventh best chance to win it all, and will not be favored by the computer in their first game, they have beaten their likely first opponent three times already. Therefore, if they can do it a fourth, they put themselves in a position to win one more game to get to the section final.
My Pick: Heritage Christian
Section 5A
Seed | Team | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W2 | Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa | 100 | 99.68 | 87.40 | 55.32 | 55 | 1.8 |
W1 | Walker-Hackensack-Akeley | 100 | 99.84 | 89.77 | 40.60 | 40.09 | 2.5 |
W3 | Pine River-Backus | 100 | 97.28 | 12.56 | 3.05 | 2.89 | 35 |
E5 | Upsala | 100 | 88 | 58.99 | 50.19 | 0.86 | 116 |
W4 | Sebeka | 100 | 72.96 | 8.79 | 0.95 | 0.85 | 117 |
E1 | East Central | 100 | 89.73 | 37.48 | 29.31 | 0.2 | 510 |
W5 | Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg | 100 | 27.04 | 1.44 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1670 |
E6 | Barnum | 100 | 53.25 | 36.92 | 9.16 | 0.03 | 3307 |
E2 | Ogilvie | 100 | 81.09 | 32.39 | 5.14 | 0.01 | 8961 |
E3 | Braham | 100 | 46.75 | 27.45 | 4.64 | 0.01 | 11541 |
E8 | Swanville | 94.56 | 10.23 | 1.61 | 0.68 | <0.01 | 112222 |
E4 | Onamia | 100 | 12 | 1.92 | 0.72 | <0.01 | 135693 |
W7 | Browerville/Eagle Valley | 99.9997 | 0.32 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 357331 |
W6 | Verndale | 100 | 2.72 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 990697 |
E7 | Hinckley-Finlayson | 98.65 | 18.9 | 3.25 | 0.16 | <0.01 | 2232691 |
W8 | Nevis | 88.33 | 0.16 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 27850279 |
E9 | Isle | 5.44 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 28527302826 |
W9 | Bertha-Hewitt | 11.67 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1000924274189 |
E10 | McGregor | 1.35 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1543171237916060 |
W10 | Laporte | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Menahga comes in with just one defeat on the season, and that was to the top rated team in AA Eden Valley-Watkins. Although they do have challengers in the section, it is hard to pick against Menahga since they beat both Pine River-Backus and Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa already.
The Contenders
Pine River-Backus is on a roll. They pushed Menahga early in the season, regrouped, suffered three straight losses to quality competition, and then went on a tear. If they can get past Menahga, they’ll be a favorite in the championship game. BBE has the fortunate luck of playing in the south half of the bracket, which is weaker at the top than the north.
The Sleepers
Kerkhoven-Murdock-Sunburg is the fifth seed in the south, but has the sixth best chance overall to win the section. If they can somehow get past BBE in the quarterfinals, they will have about a 25% chance to actually be playing for a chance to go to state.
My Pick: Menahga
Section 6A
Seed | Team | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N1 | Henning | 100 | 99.36 | 93.30 | 87.08 | 82.31 | 1.2 |
S1 | West Central | 100 | 98.89 | 82.25 | 61.6 | 8.03 | 12 |
N2 | Underwood | 100 | 93.79 | 61.07 | 6.92 | 4.43 | 23 |
N3 | Park Christian | 100 | 72.92 | 30.14 | 2.36 | 1.27 | 79 |
N4 | Ada-Borup | 100 | 62.42 | 4.44 | 2.19 | 1.27 | 79 |
S3 | Parkers Prairie | 100 | 66.73 | 41.08 | 14.54 | 0.9 | 111 |
S2 | Hancock | 100 | 87.52 | 39.34 | 11.51 | 0.55 | 181 |
N5 | New York Mills | 100 | 37.58 | 2.18 | 1 | 0.55 | 182 |
S6 | Wheaton/Herman-Norcross | 100 | 33.27 | 17.75 | 5.17 | 0.25 | 396 |
S4 | Brandon/Evansville | 100 | 75.72 | 15.15 | 6.37 | 0.24 | 409 |
N6 | Lake Park-Audubon | 100 | 27.08 | 7.72 | 0.43 | 0.17 | 593 |
S5 | Clinton-Graceville-Beardsley | 100 | 24.28 | 2.52 | 0.65 | 0.01 | 9211 |
N7 | Mahnomen/Waubun | 95.79 | 6.2 | 1.08 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 29399 |
S7 | Battle Lake | 100 | 12.48 | 1.83 | 0.16 | <0.01 | 65208 |
N9 | NCE/U-H | 47.43 | 0.31 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 107482 |
N8 | Rothsay | 52.57 | 0.33 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 155995 |
S8 | Ashby | 96.67 | 1.11 | 0.08 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 8448310 |
N10 | Hillcrest Lutheran | 4.20 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 70513824519 |
S9 | Ortonville | 3.33 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 282483341266387 |
The Favorite
Pelican Rapids has a shade under 50% chance to win the section, which is remarkable due to the fact that Ada-Borup and Parkers Prairie have spent the entire season in the top 15 and West Central has been just outside of it. The biggest hurdle is the rematch with Ada-Borup, but the section final won’t be easy as the south could send one of four solid teams.
The Contenders
Alongside Pelican Rapids, the main contenders are Ada-Borup, Parkers Prairie, and West Central. Ada-Borup has been there before, and the numbers say that they are the biggest threat to the Vikings. One of the two losses the Panthers of Parkers Prairie suffered was a close one to Ada-Borup, so they demonstrated the ability to play state tournament level basketball. West Central has six losses, but five of those six are by 10 points or less and three of them are to highly rated teams.
The Sleepers
If you want to beat Clinton-Graceville-Beardsley, you will have a to grind out a win. They have eight wins while scoring 50 points or less, so you know their defense is solid. Underwood made their way to the section final game last year with a pair of upsets and are capable of the same this year.
My Pick: Pelican Rapids
Section 7A
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Cromwell-Wright | 100 | 100 | 99.9994 | 99.995 | 69.46 | 1.4 |
2 | Mountain Iron-Buhl | 100 | 100 | 99.9991 | 80.69 | 28.41 | 3.5 |
3 | Cherry | 100 | 99.9999999 | 99.95 | 19.31481747689 | 2.14 | 47 |
4 | Ely | 100 | 99.16 | 88.08 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 62035523 |
9 | Floodwood | 100 | 68.13 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 6823766496 |
5 | Chisholm | 100 | 66.62 | 8.46 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 104037561290 |
8 | South Ridge | 100 | 31.87 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 194723345153 |
12 | North Woods | 100 | 33.38 | 3.35 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 489612095894 |
11 | Deer River | 100 | 45.26 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 773399341181 |
6 | Littlefork-Big Falls | 100 | 54.74 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1266453844050 |
7 | Cook County | 100 | 71.12 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 141320816389936 |
10 | Carlton | 100 | 28.88 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 450692254141506 |
13 | Bigfork | 100 | 0.84 | 0.11 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 16987478604883500 |
14 | Hill City/Northland | 99.25 | 1.4 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
16 | Nashwauk-Keewatin | 99.52 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
17 | Northeast Range | 0.48 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
18 | Wrenshall | 54.86 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
15 | Silver Bay | 45.14 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
19 | Fond du Lac Ojibwe | 0.75 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Mountain Iron-Buhl is the darling of the computer. So much so that even five losses, including two by 20+ points, didn’t dethrone them from their position atop Class A. The computer gives them around a 60% chance to win the section which will most likely hinge on the outcome of one game.
The Contenders
Cromwell-Wright is the one seed in the section and rated as the third best team in the state by the computer. They split with MIB in the regular season, who gave them their only loss on December 28. It’s hard to argue with how they have been playing of late and given that they have a 99% chance to be in the title game, they have a very good chance to win.
The Sleepers
Anybody other than the top two seeds qualify as sleepers in this section as they are head and shoulders above the rest. Cherry has had a very nice season, spending most of it in the top ten of the computer ratings before settling in at 14th. They have a 96% chance to reach the semifinals where if they can upset MIB, will give them all the confidence they need going into the section finals.
My Pick: Cromwell-Wright
Section 8A
Seed | Team | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
W1 | Warren-Alvarado-Oslo | 100 | 76.89 | 47.39 | 35.62 | 30.59 | 3.3 |
W4 | Badger/Greenbush-Middle River | 100 | 80.64 | 38.14 | 26 | 21.03 | 4.8 |
E2 | Red Lake | 100 | 98.7 | 62.1 | 42.98 | 12.12 | 8.3 |
W3 | Sacred Heart | 100 | 57.01 | 37.03 | 12.55 | 9.06 | 11 |
W6 | Stephen-Argyle | 100 | 42.99 | 28.53 | 10.27 | 7.51 | 13 |
E1 | Fosston | 100 | 95.94 | 73.22 | 29.4 | 4.61 | 22 |
E3 | Cass Lake-Bena | 100 | 87.4 | 36.18 | 21.85 | 4.46 | 22 |
W8 | Kittson County Central | 96.57 | 23.06 | 10.18 | 5.92 | 4.42 | 23 |
W2 | Red Lake County Central | 100 | 67.2 | 25.07 | 6.26 | 3.87 | 26 |
W5 | Red Lake Falls | 100 | 19.36 | 4.29 | 1.73 | 1.03 | 97 |
W7 | Northern Freeze | 99.16 | 32.79 | 9.37 | 1.65 | 0.92 | 108 |
E4 | Clearbrook-Gonvick | 100 | 71.94 | 20.9 | 4.65 | 0.34 | 297 |
E5 | Blackduck | 100 | 28.06 | 4.98 | 0.67 | 0.02 | 4216 |
E6 | Goodridge/Grygla | 100 | 12.6 | 1.67 | 0.4 | 0.02 | 6509 |
E9 | Win-E-Mac | 73.79 | 3.73 | 0.87 | 0.06 | <0.01 | 110433 |
W9 | Fertile-Beltrami | 3.43 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2877011 |
E7 | Lake of the Woods | 100 | 1.30 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 14472142 |
E8 | Kelliher/Northome | 26.21 | 0.33 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 51712880 |
W10 | Climax/Fisher | 0.84 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 8863650923 |
The Favorite
Stephen-Argyle spent most of the season undefeated and is a strong favorite in section 8A. The only concern moving forward for the Storm is that the west half of the bracket is tougher than the east.
The Contenders
Red Lake has a great chance to represent the east half in the section final and their toughest competition will be the winner of Fosston and Cass Lake-Bena should those two teams play. They also played a tight game against Stephen-Argyle in December so if a few bounces go the other way, the Warriors could be headed back to state.
The Sleepers
Northern Freeze is the 7 seed in the west, but has the eighth best chance to win the section according to the computer. They are more than capable of competing with the top of the section and when the games are close, anything can happen.
My Pick: Stephen-Argyle