Section Previews By the Numbers: 4AA, 5AA, 6AA, 7AA, 8AA
The section previews that follow are determined by the computer ratings found on the Team Rankings page. Each value represents the percent chance a team reaches that round of the tournament. The final column represents how many tournaments would need…
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Continue ReadingThe section previews that follow are determined by the computer ratings found on the Team Rankings page. Each value represents the percent chance a team reaches that round of the tournament. The final column represents how many tournaments would need to played for that team to win it once.
Section 4AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Minnehaha Academy | 100 | 100 | 99.9997 | 99.98 | 81.02 | 1.2 |
3 | Concordia Academy | 100 | 100 | 99.996 | 99.28 | 18.98 | 5.3 |
2 | St. Paul Humboldt | 100 | 100 | 95.993 | 0.72 | <0.01 | 153320 |
5 | New Life Academy | 100 | 99.9995 | 56.81 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 730960 |
4 | Cristo Rey Jesuit | 100 | 100 | 43.19 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 13797546 |
9 | St. Agnes | 100 | 87.85 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2863847595 |
7 | Mounds Park | 100 | 99.25 | 4.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2954277246 |
11 | St. Croix Prep | 100 | 57.42 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 31040704134 |
6 | St. Paul Academy | 100 | 42.58 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 845697065078 |
8 | North Lakes | 100 | 12.15 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3215325645644600 |
10 | Twin Cities Academy | 99.9998 | 0.75 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3331268832598750208 |
12 | Nova Classical | 63.62 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
13 | St. Paul Johnson | 36.38 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
15 | St. Paul Washington | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
14 | Hiawatha Collegiate | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Minnehaha Academy gets a double bye in a weak section (minus Concordia Academy) which makes them a near lock to be playing in the championship game. It really comes down to whether or not they can beat the one team in their section that can compete with them.
The Contenders
Concordia Academy doesn’t have the near certainty that Minnehaha has to reach the finals, but they aren’t far behind. The Beacons should be in the championship game, the tough part will be winning it.
The Sleepers
New Life Academy and St. Croix Prep are underseeded according to the computers, but it actually helps St. Croix Prep. The computer gives them a more than 95% chance to reach the semifinals, where they avoid Minnehaha by being on the other half. Concordia is no slouch, but if I got to pick who to play, I’d choose the Beacons.
My Pick: Minnehaha Academy
Section 5AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Providence Academy | 100 | 100 | 83.63 | 46.72 | 30.58 | 3.3 |
5 | Holy Family | 100 | 96.11 | 92.35 | 48.72 | 30.08 | 3.3 |
2 | Watertown-Mayer | 100 | 97.89 | 95.02 | 65.4 | 28.71 | 3.5 |
3 | Rockford | 100 | 99.99995 | 53.18 | 19 | 5.46 | 18 |
6 | Annandale | 100 | 99.98 | 46.82 | 15.2 | 3.9 | 26 |
9 | Southwest Christian | 100 | 46.43 | 8.28 | 2.25 | 0.69 | 144 |
8 | Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted | 100 | 53.57 | 8.09 | 1.97 | 0.53 | 187 |
12 | Maple Lake | 100 | 3.89 | 2.66 | 0.15 | 0.01 | 8547 |
10 | Maranatha Christian | 100 | 74.48 | 3.4 | 0.29 | 0.01 | 9432 |
4 | Blake | 100 | 99.9 | 4.99 | 0.19 | 0.01 | 9702 |
15 | Dassel-Cokato | 100 | 2.11 | 1.3 | 0.1 | <0.01 | 30965 |
7 | Minneapolis North | 100 | 25.52 | 0.27 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 2103672 |
11 | Breck | 100 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 243017766782444 |
13 | Brooklyn Center | 100 | 0.1 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 57872940145363200 |
14 | Minneapolis Henry | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
16 | Metro Schools College Prep | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Holy Family is the top seed and favorite in section 5AA. The bye is not a huge benefit due to the low quality teams at the bottom of the section, but they do get the more favorable side of the bracket. The Fire will get Providence Academy or Minneapolis North in the semis and although the computer is down on the Polars, they do have a nice win over Pequot Lakes and only lost to Eden Prairie by 9 so that proves they can hang with good teams.
The Contenders
Maranatha Christian Academy comes in with the second best chance according to the computer. They were steadily climbing the ratings until they thrashed Mountain Iron-Buhl and skyrocketed to the middle of the top ten. Annandale is as solid as they get on both ends of the floor and will be a tough out for anybody who wants to win this section. Providence Academy has also played some bigger schools and competed so they will be battle tested for tournament time.
The Sleepers
Watertown-Mayer as the seven seed has the fifth best chance to reach the semifinals. To do so they will need to beat Annandale, who they recently took to overtime.
My Pick: Annandale
Section 6AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Sauk Centre | 100 | 99.995 | 98.62 | 70.72 | 47.79 | 2.1 |
1 | Albany | 100 | 99.93 | 94.87 | 66.73 | 29.42 | 3.4 |
3 | Pine City | 100 | 99.998 | 91.04 | 28.79 | 13.8 | 7.2 |
4 | Royalton | 100 | 99.98 | 68.78 | 25.52 | 7.6 | 13.2 |
5 | Holdingford | 100 | 98.04 | 31.19 | 7.08 | 1.21 | 82.7 |
6 | Melrose | 100 | 68.4 | 6.6 | 0.31 | 0.03 | 3567 |
8 | Milaca | 100 | 59.06 | 3.02 | 0.36 | 0.02 | 5821 |
9 | Foley | 100 | 40.94 | 2.05 | 0.24 | 0.01 | 8955 |
11 | St. Cloud Cathedral | 100 | 31.6 | 2.37 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 15865 |
7 | Pierz | 100 | 97.6 | 1.38 | 0.09 | <0.01 | 32392 |
12 | Osakis | 100 | 1.96 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 45151428 |
16 | Kimball | 100 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 54059922227 |
10 | Spectrum | 100 | 2.4 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 90327858132 |
15 | Long Prairie-Grey Eagle | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 3940635206913 |
13 | Mora | 100 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 25912725348825 |
14 | Rush City | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 127775180520494000 |
The Favorite
No surprise that Sauk Centre is the favorite to head to state for the fifth time in a row. Until somebody can knock them off, it will be their section to lose. Although there are some quality teams in this section, there is something about a program that has “been there, done that” that makes them hard to pick against.
The Contenders
This is the third straight year that Rush City has entered the section tournament with one or fewer losses. Is this the year they finally pull through and make it to state? The computer says they have about a one in six chance to do so. St. Cloud Cathedral played Sauk Centre to an eight point game at the beginning of the season and are given about a 7% chance to go to state. Although they have lost four of their last seven, Albany is a team that is really hitting its stride, as those four losses came to teams seeded first or second in their respective sections.
The Sleepers
Pine City only has around a 1.5% chance to win the whole tournament, but they are a team that can get hot from deep and beat just about anybody.
My Pick: Sauk Centre
Section 7AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2, 1 | Proctor | 100 | 100 | 93.08 | 90.8 | 54.87 | 1.8 |
2, 2 | Duluth Marshall | 100 | 99.95 | 80.13 | 73.84 | 39.4 | 2.5 |
2, 3 | Mesabi East | 100 | 99.55 | 19.86 | 14.74 | 3.31 | 30 |
1, 1 | Esko | 100 | 100 | 97.15 | 11.4 | 1.2 | 83 |
2, 4 | Virginia | 100 | 99.86 | 6.92 | 5.12 | 0.87 | 115 |
1, 2 | Pequot Lakes | 100 | 99.65 | 78 | 3.72 | 0.33 | 300 |
1, 3 | Crosby-Ironton | 100 | 99.2 | 21.99 | 0.36 | 0.01 | 8578 |
1, 5 | Pillager | 100 | 70.87 | 2.44 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 718088 |
1, 4 | Moose Lake-Willow River | 100 | 29.13 | 0.41 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 19574476 |
2, 6 | Eveleth-Gilbert | 100 | 0.45 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 877265401 |
2, 7 | International Falls | 100 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 45119634206 |
1, 7 | Aitkin | 100 | 0.35 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 74716364829 |
2, 5 | Greenway | 100 | 0.14 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2907402937104 |
1, 6 | Two Harbors | 100 | 0.8 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 8048016007265 |
The Favorite
Proctor is the favorite in a section that is quite top heavy. There are seven teams at the top that should provide for a fun finish, but not much for a middle or bottom. The Rails are slight favorites over Esko even though the Eskomos won the only meeting between the two. Proctor does have the easier path to the semifinals, but will face a tougher matchup to get to the finals.
The Contenders
Esko has a one in three chance to cut down the nets and has had the most success against the rest of the section among the rest of the contenders. Pequot Lakes is given the third best chance to win it all but has struggled to beat section teams going just 4-4. Duluth Marshall is going to score points, but the question is how many will they give up? Crosby-Ironton has had success against the top of the section collecting four wins over the rest of the top tier. Mesabi East is the defending champion but it will require a strong effort to get back to state as they went just 2-3 against the rest of the contenders in the section.
The Sleepers
Aitkin is the last team included in the top tier, so they are the sleeper. As a four seed, they face a difficult path, but they have shown an ability to compete and with the top of the section. Of their five losses to the top six teams in the section, four of them are by fewer than eight points.
My Pick: Proctor
Section 8AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Fergus Falls | 100 | 99.01 | 95.16 | 67.15 | 44.01 | 2.3 |
S2 | Pelican Rapids | 100 | 95.28 | 57.81 | 39.79 | 19.12 | 5.2 |
N2 | Roseau | 100 | 98.71 | 69.9 | 26.22 | 12.82 | 7.8 |
N1 | Hawley | 100 | 99.9999998 | 81 | 32.44 | 11.73 | 8.5 |
N3 | Crookston | 100 | 94.68 | 41.23 | 25.12 | 10.22 | 9.8 |
S3 | Perham | 100 | 72.68 | 24.15 | 5.24 | 1.56 | 64 |
S5 | Frazee | 100 | 43.47 | 8.87 | 1.26 | 0.18 | 560 |
S4 | Menahga | 100 | 56.53 | 10.13 | 1.23 | 0.15 | 660 |
S6 | Breckenridge | 100 | 27.32 | 5.9 | 0.79 | 0.14 | 709 |
N5 | Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton | 100 | 78.37 | 4.21 | 0.56 | 0.05 | 2107 |
S7 | Barnesville | 100 | 4.72 | 0.61 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 9845 |
N6 | East Grand Forks | 100 | 5.32 | 0.34 | 0.05 | <0.01 | 30060 |
S8 | Wadena-Deer Creek | 92.98 | 0.98 | 0.4 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 140925 |
N4 | Park Rapids | 100 | 21.63 | 0.22 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 1174980 |
N7 | Thief River Falls | 100 | 1.29 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 11862694 |
S9 | Staples-Motley | 7.02 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2195501385 |
N8 | Warroad | 64.82 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
N9 | Bagley | 35.18 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | N/A |
The Favorite
Roseau is the favorite in the northwest section 8AA. They are a perennial power that has made it more of a surprise when they don’t go to state than when they do. With about a two out of three chance to go again this year is no different.
The Contenders
East Grand Forks is the biggest challenger by far to the Rams. The way the section is bracketed puts these two northern half teams on opposite sides of the bracket and they should meet in the finals. An interesting note, Park Rapids is the top seeded team in the south but has only the seventh best chance to represent the section at state. They are even behind Crookston who is the fifth seed from the north.
The Sleepers
Take your pick. Breckenridge, Hawley, Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton, and Crookston all have similar chances to win the section. Breckenridge and Hawley get the edge due to the higher likelihood that they reach the semifinals. This section is full of interesting data though, because DGF and Crookston have better chances to make it to the section finals.
My Pick: Roseau