Section Previews By the Numbers: AAA
The section previews that follow are determined by the computer ratings found on the Team Rankings page. Each value represents the percent chance a team reaches that round of the tournament. Section 1AAA SeedTeamSemisFinalsChamp1 in ??? 1Red Wing1008345.052.2 3Kasson-Mantorville99.2478.644.82.2 2Austin96.9121.35.9617…
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Continue ReadingThe section previews that follow are determined by the computer ratings found on the Team Rankings page. Each value represents the percent chance a team reaches that round of the tournament.
Section 1AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Red Wing | 100 | 83 | 45.05 | 2.2 | ||
3 | Kasson-Mantorville | 99.24 | 78.6 | 44.8 | 2.2 | ||
2 | Austin | 96.91 | 21.3 | 5.96 | 17 | ||
5 | Byron | 73.59 | 15.58 | 4.08 | 25 | ||
4 | Albert Lea | 26.41 | 1.42 | 0.11 | 915 | ||
6 | Winona | 0.76 | 0.06 | <0.01 | 73164 | ||
7 | Faribault | 3.09 | 0.05 | <0.01 | 85232 |
The Favorite
Kasson-Mantorville is a surprise favorite as the third seed. They have played many of the same teams as their section counterparts, and have been successful with a 5-1 record in those games. The lone loss came to the top seeded Red Wing.
The Contenders
Red Wing and Austin are the other top contenders. Red Wing benefits from the first round bye only due to the rest they will receive as the bottom of the section is not strong. They do not benefit from having to face Austin in the semifinals as the computer sees them as a strong opponent than Northfield.
The Sleepers
Since Austin is a contender, I wouldn’t feel comfortable naming them as a sleeper, although they would fit the bill better than any other team in the section.
My Pick: Red Wing
Section 2AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Marshall | 97.25 | 63.86 | 45.86 | 2.2 | ||
2 | Waconia | 96.96 | 79.33 | 30.39 | 3.3 | ||
4 | Hutchinson | 82.11 | 32.47 | 20.06 | 5 | ||
5 | St. Peter | 17.89 | 3.4 | 1.41 | 71 | ||
6 | Worthington | 45.53 | 10.12 | 1.25 | 80 | ||
3 | Mankato West | 54.47 | 9.9 | 0.96 | 104 | ||
8 | New Ulm | 2.75 | 0.28 | 0.05 | 2099 | ||
7 | Mankato East | 3.04 | 0.64 | 0.02 | 6420 |
The Favorite
Waseca is rated as the top team in AAA and the favorite in the section. In a section as deep as 2AAA, the first round bye is a massive advantage. While other quality teams knock each other out, they get to sit back and watch.
The Contenders
Marshall and New Ulm enter with similar chances with each team’s major hurdle being Waseca. Mankato West also has a chance but faces what the computer believes is an extremely difficult route.
The Sleepers
Worthington is actually given a small, but somewhat legitimate chance to reach the finals. They face a difficult path to get there, but everyone in this section faces a difficult path.
My Pick: Waseca
Section 3AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Simley | 99.999995 | 94.73 | 45.37 | 2.2 | ||
3 | St. Paul Como Park | 97.88 | 57.54 | 33.42 | 3 | ||
2 | St. Croix Lutheran | 99.53 | 42.35 | 20.89 | 4.8 | ||
4 | Henry Sibley | 99.35 | 5.27 | 0.32 | 310 | ||
6 | Visitation | 2.12 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 17007 | ||
7 | South St. Paul | 0.47 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 1606092 | ||
5 | St. Paul Highland Park | 0.65350973464667 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 693418091 | ||
8 | St. Paul Harding | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 4950859256772042 |
The Favorite
Holy Angels is the favorite, piggy backing on their strong start to the season. They have not played as well to finish the season but it is hard to bet against the Stars in the section tournament.
The Contenders
Simley has had an impressive season, capped by winning the Metro East Conference over Hill-Murray. The problem with being the two seed in this section is you will have to beat both quality teams in the section to win it. St. Croix Lutheran is the third quality team in this section and they do have a fighter’s chance, but they face the same problem as Simley in that they will need to win two tough games.
The Sleepers
This section is sleeperless, but St. Paul Highland Park has the best of an upset by seed.
My Pick: Simley
Section 4AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | DeLaSalle | 99.999996 | 88.06 | 83.36 | 1.2 | ||
4 | Totino-Grace | 88.4 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 12 | ||
2 | Hill-Murray | 99.4 | 75.22 | 7.18 | 14 | ||
3 | Mahtomedi | 74.64 | 20.44 | 0.92 | 108 | ||
5 | St. Anthony Village | 11.6 | 0.35 | 0.13 | 787 | ||
6 | Fridley | 25.36 | 4.3 | 0.11 | 918 | ||
7 | Columbia Heights | 0.6 | 0.03 | <0.01 | 2197050 | ||
8 | Minneapolis Edison | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 557152024796630 |
The Favorite
DeLaSalle has flipped a switch of late and is playing some really good basketball. The path as the two seed is more difficult, but if the Islander team of the past few weeks continues to show up it shouldn’t be a problem.
The Contenders
Hill-Murray has spent the majority of the season as the top rated team in this section by the computers, only to have DeLaSalle take it over at the end of the season. They did earn the one seed, which is a benefit in this section due to the quality of the top three teams. St. Paul Como Park is dangerous. They are capable of beating both of the top two teams, but the question is did the lack of competition in the St. Paul City Conference hold them back this year?
The Sleepers
St. Anthony Village has shown the ability to beat good teams with a victory of Benilde-St. Margaret’s on the year. They have the unfortunate task of beating all three of the section’s giants to accomplish the ultimate goal.
My Pick: DeLaSalle
Section 5AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Becker | 100 | 78.77 | 70.51 | 1.4 | ||
4 | Willmar | 88.23 | 20.28 | 15.16 | 6.6 | ||
2 | Big Lake | 97.29 | 56.23 | 8.82 | 11 | ||
3 | Monticello | 91.61 | 42.32 | 5.08 | 20 | ||
5 | Zimmerman | 11.77 | 0.95 | 0.39 | 256 | ||
6 | Rocori | 8.39 | 1.26 | 0.04 | 2582 | ||
7 | St. Francis | 2.71 | 0.19 | <0.01 | 59164 |
The Favorite
Becker jumped over Willmar late in the season to claim the spot of favorite in the section. Playing the extra game doesn’t hurt their chances much as Rocori should not provide much of a challenge in round one.
The Contenders
Willmar beat Becker early in the season, but that seems like ages ago. The Cardinals started the season so strong but stumbled a few times down the stretch including a game against their potential round opponent St. Cloud Apollo.
The Sleepers
Big Lake and St. Cloud Apollo are given similar chances but in order to get to the promised land they will probably need to defeat both of the top teams in the section.
My Pick: Becker
Section 6AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Holy Angels | 97.78 | 84.06 | 67.74 | 1.5 | ||
2 | Orono | 97.58 | 74.41 | 22.22 | 4.5 | ||
4 | Benilde-St. Margarets | 99.98 | 15.54 | 6.76 | 15 | ||
3 | Richfield | 69.12 | 18.68 | 2.54 | 39 | ||
6 | Delano | 30.88 | 6.66 | 0.66 | 150 | ||
8 | Mound-Westonka | 2.22 | 0.4 | 0.06 | 1549 | ||
7 | Bloomington Kennedy | 2.42 | 0.26 | 0.01 | 18359 | ||
5 | Minneapolis Roosevelt | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 74693290123 |
The Favorite
Robbinsdale Cooper began the season slow, but who can blame them? They finished the season with the toughest schedule in AAA and the majority of it was front loaded. They get the bye and avoid the other two strong teams in the section.
The Contenders
Waconia has a slightly higher chance than Benilde-St. Margaret’s due to the fact that the semifinals of this section are played at the high seed. The three teams are about as even as you get, so it shows the huge benefit of getting the top seed to avoid the other two.
The Sleepers
Mound Westonka has shown some promise this season and been competitive with some high quality teams. To do it in back to back games would be an impressive feat.
My Pick: Robbinsdale Cooper
Section 7AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Hermantown | 99.999 | 88.46 | 79.26 | 1.3 | ||
3 | Hibbing | 93.16 | 63.43 | 10.44 | 9.6 | ||
4 | Grand Rapids | 92.84 | 11.41 | 6.37 | 16 | ||
2 | Princeton | 74.68 | 28.49 | 3.46 | 29 | ||
7 | Cloquet | 25.32 | 6.1 | 0.38 | 261 | ||
6 | Chisago Lakes | 6.84 | 1.98 | 0.06 | 1540 | ||
5 | North Branch | 7.16 | 0.14 | 0.02 | 4330 | ||
8 | Duluth Denfeld | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 31726979625 |
The Favorite
Hibbing has two losses, both to Grand Rapids by four points. They made their rise beating a bunch of teams that they should beat. According to the computer that is going to be the case in the section as well, but much easier said than done.
The Contenders
Grand Rapids played the third most difficult schedule in all of AAA. They took some lumps because of it, but they won’t face teams of that quality here. Plus, the section goes through them until someone else can take it from them.
The Sleepers
Hermantown has losses. Lots of them. But the computer still gives them a good chance to win it all. They have been reasonably competitive with the top of the section, but haven’t been able to turn it into wins.
My Pick: Grand Rapids
Section 8AAA
Seed | Team | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Alexandria | 99.91 | 96.12 | 69.44 | 1.4 | ||
2 | Bemidji | 99.53 | 82.25 | 28.09 | 3.56 | ||
3 | Sartell-St. Stephen | 79.68 | 15.68 | 1.81 | 55 | ||
5 | St. Cloud Tech | 46.38 | 2.32 | 0.37 | 268 | ||
4 | Detroit Lakes | 53.62 | 1.55 | 0.17 | 592 | ||
6 | Sauk Rapids-Rice | 20.32 | 2.04 | 0.12 | 834 | ||
8 | Little Falls | 0.09 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 328514 | ||
7 | St. Cloud Apollo | 0.47211951342645 | 0.032282067381465 | <0.01 | 446322 |
The Favorite
Alexandria was undefeated through a large portion of the season but then slipped up three times in a row. They did defeat Fergus Falls in both of their matchups this season.
The Contenders
Fergus Falls is the only serious contender to Alexandria. They are hoping the adage of it is difficult to beat a team three times in one season rings true.
The Sleepers
Bemidji is given a much better chance than I expected considering they need to defeat both Fergus Falls and Alexandria. The Lumberjacks have the offense, but will their defense hold up.
My Pick: Fergus Falls