By the Numbers: Bracketology Part II

Todd Goudy

January 26, 2020 @ 09:30 PM

Team Ratings With last week's Bracketology, we focused on the hypotheticals. Those are great, but as of now, they are not happening. This week we switch into the real deals. Each of the 32 sections will have a “current” Bracketology. This is based on the same formula as last week, with 1/3 coming from the team's rating and 2/3 coming from their Strength of Record. A quick reminder of what this Bracketology does not take into consideration, head-to-head results. It factors in all scores to all games, so if two teams are close in Bracketology rating, there is no tiebreakers. Your team may be behind a team that it beat during the season, but that only affects seeding as much as it affects a team's rating and Strength of Record. If your team does not fall where you think they will or should fall, please understand two things: 1) these will change based on the results of every game played, and we have somewhere in the neighborhood of 1500 games remaining in the regular season. 2) I'm just doing this for fun and the numbers that are used work differently than humans and differently than the QRF. Each link will include different tabs for the 64-team hypothetical bracket as well as the current bracketology for all eight sections. Enjoy! Class A Bracketology Class AA Bracketology Class AAA Bracketology Class AAAA Bracketology All Class 64 Team Hypothetical Biggest Upset This section will feature the most unlikely winners. When the preseason ratings are involved, the unlikely winners have a chance to be the better team, but we use the ratings at the time of the game to determine who goes here. Hancock 46, Melrose 43 (1.45% chance of upset) Melrose had won seven of their last eight while Hancock had lost five of their last six. Honorable Mention: St. Paul Humboldt 64, St. Paul Central 56 (2.46%), Monticello 35, Willmar 32 (2.91%) Biggest Gainers This section will be reserved for the teams that move up the rankings the most. A – New Ulm Cathedral (previously Class A #105, currently #90)

Wins – none
Losses –AA #93 Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop (51-41), A #26 Springfield (62-48)

AA – Jackson County Central (previously Class AA #69, currently #55)

Wins – AA #24 Lake Cyrstal-Wellcome Memorial (87-71)
Losses – AA #58 Redwood Valley (81-69)

AAA – Waconia (previously Class AAA #9, currently #6)

Wins – AAA #28 New Ulm (90-69), AAA #4 Hutchinson (71-66)
Losses – none

AAAA – Duluth East (previously Class AAAA #50, currently #46)

Wins – AAA #7 Hermantown (63-54), AAAA #58 Minneapolis Southwest (68-43)
Losses – none

Biggest Fallers This section will include the teams that fell down the rankings the most. A – Pine River-Backus (previously Class A #13, currently #29)

Wins – A #135 Laporte (59-13), A #124 Isle (81-29)
Losses – A # Blackduck (69-46)

AA – Moose Lake-Willow River (previously Class AA #75, currently #88)

Wins – A #67 East Central (65-53)
Losses – AA #98 Greenway (62-48)

AAA – St. Cloud Tech (previously Class AAA #38, currently #43)

Wins – AAA #55 St. Cloud Apollo (68-32), AAA #47 Sauk Rapids-Rice (68-58)
Losses – AAA #45 Rocori (57-55)

AAAA – Blaine (previously Class AAAA #20, currently #25)

Wins – AAAA #26 Champlin Park (64-59)
Losses – AAAA #27 Andover (64-60)

Highest Scoring Games A reasonably high scoring week coming of off Snowrmageddon last weekend with the per game average at 107.2 points. The season average is back up to what it was prior to last week at 106.1 points per game. Hopkins is the first team to appear on this list twice with both being wins.

Hopkins 88, St. Michael-Albertville 80
Park Center 90, Rogers 77
Hopkins 87, Wayzata 77
Waconia 90, New Ulm 69
Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial 87, Jackson County Central 71

Predictions Each week I will list the computer predictions for some of the more interesting games around the state. These predictions may change as the week goes on due to the outcomes of previous games. All games that I am aware of each day are predicted on Twitter (@MNBBRatings). Monday