By the Numbers: Is Defensive Points Per Game a Fraud?
Two weeks ago, the teams that scored the most points per game were highlighted. It takes skill to score points on a consistent basis, even if you are playing against a poor schedule. On the other side of the aisle…
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Continue ReadingTwo weeks ago, the teams that scored the most points per game were highlighted. It takes skill to score points on a consistent basis, even if you are playing against a poor schedule. On the other side of the aisle is defense. What do most of the teams allowing the least points per game have in common? The answer is a weak schedule. There are a few teams who have played a solid schedule and place an actual emphasis on getting stops (or playing at a slow pace, but that is a different animal), but for the most part teams allow fewer points when they play more offensively challenged teams.
In Class A, North Lakes Academy tops the list, allowing 34.25 points per game. While they have shown improvement this year, their schedule currently ranks 140th out of 148 Class A teams. In second place is Cromwell-Wright, allowing 34.3 points per game. The top-rated team in the class has played some tough competition, namely Minneota and Duluth Marshall, but their schedule still ranks 70th.
Class AA defense are led by Spectrum. The Sting only allow 34.1 points per game, but are currently playing the 120th ranked schedule out of 130 Class AA teams. Second on the list is Nova Classical Academy, allowing only 35 points per game. Here’s the kicker, their schedule ranks dead last in Class AA at 130th.
In the larger classes, it is more difficult to mask defensive deficiencies with a weak schedule, although not impossible. Simley leads Class AAA is allowing on 38.7 points per game, but have done so against the 13th ranked schedule out of 62 teams. Willmar is second in AAA at 39.75 points per game, against the 27th ranked schedule.
Class AAAA is definitely the most mixed bag of results. Elk River paces the big schools allowing just 45 points per game while competing against the 20th ranked schedule out of 62 teams in AAAA. Minneapolis Southwest, playing the weakest schedule in all of AAAA is second in points allowed at 45.2 points per game. Brainerd (47.7 ppg, 42nd of 62), Shakopee (48.5 ppg, 21st of 62), Blaine (48.72 ppg, 44th of 62), and Minneapolis South (48.75 ppg, 59th of 62) round out the top six.
If you want to watch a team that is good at defense, I would recommend against looking at the number of points per game allowed. Only one team out of the twelve listed plays a schedule in the top 25% of their class. If I wanted to watch defense, there are plenty of teams that can play it well, but the points per game and schedule strength numbers tell me to go check out Simley.
Biggest Upset
This section will feature the most unlikely winners. When the preseason ratings are involved, the unlikely winners have a chance to be the better team, but we use the ratings at the time of the game to determine who goes here.
United Christian Academy 47, West Lutheran 46 (0.12% chance of upset)
While the records were similar, the competition was not. West Lutheran’s schedule was much more challenging and they were mostly competitive. United Christian did well to win the close game.
Honorable Mention: Manakto East 67, Hutchinson 58 (0.41%), St. Cloud Apollo 50, Rocori 46 (1.84%)
Biggest Gainers
This section will be reserved for the teams that move up the rankings the most.
A – Rothsay (previously Class A #99, currently #77)
- Wins – AA #98 Thief River Falls (56-40)
- Losses – AA #68 Dilworth-Glyndon-Felton (79-72), A #82 Battle Lake (49-48 OT)
AA – Holdingford (previously Class AA #64, currently #26)
- Wins – AA #104 Kimball (63-27), AA #14 Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial (69-64), AA #54 Howard Lake-Waverly-Winsted (73-51), AA #28 Melrose (65-51)
- Losses – none
AAA – Mankato West (previously Class AAA #26, currently #13)
- Wins – AAA #9 St. Peter (61-45), AAAA #23 Eastview (53-38), AAAA #31 Rochester John Marshall (59-58 OT)
- Losses – AAA #2 Marshall (67-54)
AAAA – Rochester Mayo (previously Class AAAA #45, currently #34)
- Wins – AAAA #29 Lakeville South (55-53), AAAA #51 Northfield (68-54), AAA #20 Kasson-Mantorville (65-49)
- Losses – AA #19 Stewartville (65-55)
Biggest Fallers
This section will include the teams that fell down the rankings the most.
A – Ortonville (previously Class A #67, currently #107)
- Wins – none
- Losses – A #100 Renville County West (58-39), A #30 Wheaton/Herman-Norcross (54-29), A #29 Underwood (76-25)
AA – Rockford (previously Class AA #16, currently #45)
- Wins – AAA #44 Rocori (75-60)
- Losses – AA #61 Foley (74-62), AA #55 Milaca (67-54)
AAA – Hibbing (previously Class AAA #34, currently #42)
- Wins – AA #103 International Falls (62-43)
- Losses – AAAA #41 Eagan (57-50), AAA #43 Richfield (56-50)
AAAA – Minneapolis South (previously Class AAAA #29, currently #43)
- Wins – AAAA #46 Hastings (67-55), AAAA #49 Mounds View (48-38)
- Losses – AAAA #28 Rogers (78-57), AAAA #45 Woodbury (64-49)
Highest Scoring Games
The offense exploded over the holidays with an average total per game of 108.7 points. Apparently rest and relaxation is good for the offenses. The season average is 106.2 points per game.
- Hopkins 97, Park Center 79
- Marshall 101, Windom 66
- Sauk Centre 85, Roseau 79
- New Ulm 87, Fridley 76
- Pipestone 92, Jackson County Central 71
Predictions
Each week I will list the computer predictions for some of the more interesting games around the state. These predictions may change as the week goes on due to the outcomes of previous games. All games that I am aware of each day are predicted on Twitter (@MNBBRatings).
Monday
- Belle Plaine @ Glencoe-Silver Lake (Belle Plaine 59-52)
Tuesday
- Minnetonka @ Eden Prairie (Eden Prairie 70-63)
- Waconia @ Holy Family (Waconia 73-70)
- Elk River @ Park Center (Park Center 78-65)
- Holdingford @ Royalton (Royalton 56-54)
Thursday
- Jordan @ Mayer Lutheran (Jordan 66-62)
- Totino-Grace @ Rogers (Rogers 66-63)
Friday
- Eden Prairie @ Wayzata (Wayzata 79-65)
- Shakopee @ Burnsville (Shakopee 58-57)
- Apple Valley @ Eastview (Apple Valley 58-57)
- Hutchinson @ New Prague (Hutchinson 68-65)
Saturday
- Chaska @ Maple Grove (Chaska 69-60)