By the Numbers: Will they Finish Undefeated?

<a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/maryland/rankings/team-rankings/">Team Ratings</a> There are three undefeateds left in the state. One in AAAA, AAA, and AA respectively. This week we will take a look at how likely each of them are to finish undefeated. For enjoyment, we will include class A Hills-Beaver Creek, who is currently undefeated against Minnesota teams. Teams will be listed in order of most likely to least likely to finish undefeated. <strong>Marshall</strong> <ul> <li>Percent chance to finish undefeated = 84.52% (does not include a game with Waseca or the Big South Championship game)</li> <li>Toughest game remaining: 2/8 vs. Waconia (87% chance to win)</li> <li>Most likely record to finish the season: 21-0 (vs. MN teams only)</li> </ul> <strong>Hills-Beaver Creek</strong> <ul> <li>Percent chance to finish undefeated = 83.33%</li> <li>Toughest game remaining: 2/11 at Adrian-Ellsworth (88% chance to win)</li> <li>Most likely record to finish the season: 18-0 (vs. MN teams only)</li> </ul> <strong>Pelican Rapids</strong> <ul> <li>Percent chance to finish undefeated = 71.59%</li> <li>Toughest game remaining: 2/21 vs. Perham (84% chance to win)</li> <li>Most likely record to finish the season: 25-0</li> </ul> <strong>Hopkins</strong> <ul> <li>Percent chance to finish undefeated = 67.07%</li> <li>Toughest game remaining: at Wayzata (84% chance to win)</li> <li>Most likely record to finish the season: 24-0 (vs. MN teams only)</li> </ul> All four teams are more likely than not to finish the season undefeated against Minnesota teams. Hopkins has the toughest road for two reasons, they are the only team with six games remaining, and their remaining schedule includes road games against the #2 and #3 teams in the state. However, the percent chance that all four finish undefeated is only 33.8%. Don't be surprised to see one of these teams drop a game down the stretch, even though they are all favored to win the rest of their games. <strong>Biggest Upset</strong> This section will feature the most unlikely winners. The ratings at the time of the game are used to determine who goes here. Hayfield 44, Waterville-Elysian-Morristown 36 (0.16% chance of upset) This was just the second loss of the season for the Buccaneers. Meanwhile, the Vikings pick up a big win for section positioning. Honorable Mention: Minneapolis Southwest 47, Benilde-St. Margaret's 39 (1.06%), Hope Academy 63, West Lutheran 44 (2.91%) <strong>Biggest Gainers</strong> This section will be reserved for the teams that move up the rankings the most. A – Grand Meadow (previously Class A #76, currently #65) <ul> <li>Wins – A #59 Southland (49-23), A #42 Fillmore Central (44-42)</li> <li>Losses – AA #10 Goodhue (58-17)</li> </ul> AA – Fergus Falls (previously Class AA #10, currently #2) <ul> <li>Wins – AAA #48 Detroit Lakes (79-38), AAA #14 Willmar (81-53)</li> <li>Losses – none</li> </ul> AAA – Monticello (previously Class AAA #35, currently #30) <ul> <li>Wins – AAA #41 North Branch (61-38), AAA #32 Princeton (61-48), AA #29 Minnehaha Academy (60-50)</li> <li>Losses – none</li> </ul> AAAA – Buffalo (previously Class AAAA #33, currently #28) <ul> <li>Wins – none</li> <li>Losses – AAAA #4 Chaska (57-37), AAAA #2 Wayzata (64-51)</li> </ul> <strong>Biggest Fallers</strong> This section will include the teams that fell down the rankings the most. A – Red Lake County Central (previously Class A #22, currently #33) <ul> <li>Wins – none</li> <li>Losses – A #35 Fosston (61-52), A #31 Red Lake Falls (55-49)</li> </ul> AA – Tri-City United (previously Class AA #44, currently #54) <ul> <li>Wins – AA #65 Sibley East (71-62)</li> <li>Losses – AA #43 Southwest Christian (48-46)</li> </ul> AAA –New Ulm (previously Class AAA #25, currently #33) <ul> <li>Wins – AA #100 Blue Earth (71-49), AAA #51 Faribault (72-64)</li> <li>Losses – none</li> </ul> AAAA – Eastview (previously Class AAAA #30, currently #34) <ul> <li>Wins – none</li> <li>Losses – AAAA #14 Shakopee (41-30), AAAA #33 Eagan (49-34)</li> </ul> <strong>Highest Scoring Games</strong> Offense was on fire this week with the per game average at 107.9 points. The season average shoots up to 106.4 points per game. <ul> <li>Windom 95, Jackson County Central 91</li> <li>Blaine 92, Centennial 86 (3 OT)</li> <li>NRHEG 97, Triton 79</li> <li>Worthington 107, Jackson County Central 63</li> <li>Moose Lake-Willow River 87, Aitkin 78</li> </ul> <strong>Predictions</strong> Each week I will list the computer predictions for some of the more interesting games around the state. These predictions may change as the week goes on due to the outcomes of previous games. All games that I am aware of each day are predicted on Twitter (@MNBBRatings). Monday <ul> <li>Proctor @ Cromwell-Wright (Proctor 56-52)</li> <li>Orono @ Heritage Christian (Orono 58-57)</li> </ul> Tuesday <ul> <li>New Prague @ Hutchinson (Hutchinson 66-61)</li> <li>Wayzata @ Eden Prairie (Wayzata 76-72)</li> <li>Apple Valley @ Lakeville South (Apple Valley 60-58)</li> </ul> Thursday <ul> <li>Totino-Grace @ Spring Lake Park (Spring Lake Park 61-58)</li> <li>Centennial @ Elk River (Elk River 63-54)</li> </ul> Friday <ul> <li>Goodhue @ Lake City (Lake City 62-57)</li> <li>Roseau @ Duluth Marshall (Duluth Marshall 85-79)</li> <li>Shakopee @ Prior Lake (Shakopee 67-61)</li> </ul> Saturday <ul> <li>Holy Angels @ Chanhassen (Holy Angels 86-80)</li> <li>Cromwell-Wright @ Mountain Iron-Buhl (Mountain Iron-Buhl 69-65)</li> <li>Becker @ Alexandria (Becker 66-58)</li> <li>Hawley vs. Henning (Hawley 53-50)</li> </ul>