State Tournament Previews By the Numbers: AA and A
The State Tournaments get underway on Wednesday. Here’s what the computer has to say about the Class AA and A tournaments. Class AA SeedTeamSemisFinalChamp1 in ??? 1Rochester Lourdes98.6177.7556.11.8 2Sauk Centre85.1747.8717.845.6 RD "6"Duluth Marshall52.1526.279.0311 4Pelican Rapids62.9415.817.4513 3New London-Spicer47.8522.97714 5Waseca37.066.392.2744 RD "7"Providence…
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Continue ReadingThe State Tournaments get underway on Wednesday. Here’s what the computer has to say about the Class AA and A tournaments.
Class AA
Seed | Team | Semis | Final | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rochester Lourdes | 98.61 | 77.75 | 56.1 | 1.8 |
2 | Sauk Centre | 85.17 | 47.87 | 17.84 | 5.6 |
RD "6" | Duluth Marshall | 52.15 | 26.27 | 9.03 | 11 |
4 | Pelican Rapids | 62.94 | 15.81 | 7.45 | 13 |
3 | New London-Spicer | 47.85 | 22.97 | 7 | 14 |
5 | Waseca | 37.06 | 6.39 | 2.27 | 44 |
RD "7" | Providence Academy | 14.83 | 2.89 | 0.32 | 312 |
RD "8" | Concordia Academy | 1.39 | 0.05 | <0.01 | 51813 |
Favorite: Rochester Lourdes
The Eagles are currently on a 16 game winning streak, with 13 of those wins by double digits. Winning in Section 1AA is quite an accomplishment, as the other top teams in that section are quite strong. Lourdes elevated themselves to the #1 rating here shortly after their 19-point win over Burnsville in the Rochester Rotary Tournament and stayed there the remainder of the season.
Contenders: Sauk Centre, Duluth Marshall, Pelican Rapids, New London-Spicer, Waseca
Sauk Centre is back at the State Tournament after two victories over quality opponents in Section 6AA. Both Pine City and Albany had a good chance to represent the section at state, but the Mainstreeters dispatched both by double-digits.
Duluth Marshall is representing Section 7AA this year. The Hilltoppers avoided a revenge rematch with Proctor was upset by Virginia, but you don’t worry about how you get there when it’s your first State Tournament appearance in 20 years.
Pelican Rapids is currently 29-0, and if the Bracketology rating was seeding the State Tournament, the Vikings would be the #1 seed. They are rated as the fourth best team in the tournament according to our own ratings, but their undefeated record in a region of the state with high quality teams was more impressive than most would think.
New London-Spicer is nothing if not consistent. Most of their games this season ended with them scoring in the high 50s to mid 60s, and their opponent somewhere in the 30s. With the increase in competition, they probably won’t attain that type of victory, but you can count on a consistent performance on both ends of the floor.
Waseca was never a high scoring team this year, but they have doubled down on defense to end the year. They have won their last five games while scoring an average of 45.8 points per game. The first round battle with Pelican Rapids could be a first to 40 wins.
Sleepers: Providence Academy
The Lions chances would be higher if not for a few surprising results during the regular season. They won all their games in the Section 5AA tournament by double digits and appear to be playing their best basketball right now.
Long Shots: Concordia Academy
The Beacons dethroned defending champion Minnehaha Academy in the Section final and have the offensive firepower to hang with anyone. However, the are by far the lowest rated out of the eight remaining teams and would need to play their best game to give themselves a chance to move on.
Analysis
There are a few teams in this tournament with recent tournament success, and a few teams with star power. The depth in this tournament is solid as six teams are given a reasonable chance to win while the sleeper team is playing as good as anybody. I’m going to go with the biggest star and a great supporting cast and pick Alyssa Ustby Alyssa Ustby 6'2" | CG Rochester Lourdes | 2020 State MN and the favorite Rochester Lourdes Eagles to come out on top.
Class A
Seed | Team | Semis | Final | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2 | Cromwell-Wright | 94.74 | 84.22 | 76.93 | 1.3 |
1 | Minneota | 93.1 | 55.79 | 8.93 | 11 |
3 | Henning | 97.51 | 14.1 | 8.47 | 12 |
5 | Heritage Christian | 60.34 | 28.51 | 3.64 | 27 |
4 | Waterville-Elysian-Morristown | 39.66 | 15.07 | 1.34 | 74 |
RD "7" | Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa | 5.26 | 1.67 | 0.7 | 143 |
RD "8" | Red Lake | 6.9 | 0.63 | 0.01 | 10440 |
RD "6" | Fillmore Central | 2.49 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 146200 |
Favorite: Cromwell-Wright
Cromwell-Wright started the season with a two point loss to Minneota, which kept them from receiving the #1 seed. After that, they played their conference schedule, which is mostly weak, but also challenged themselves by playing the best northeast Minnesota has to offer. They racked up win after win, including two against AA state participant Duluth Marshall, with the only loss coming to AAA state participant Hermantown by just two points.
Contenders: Minneota, Henning, Heritage Christian, Waterville-Elysian-Morristown
Minneota is a returning champion ready to defend their crown as the #1 seed. Once again, southwest Minnesota does not provide the Vikings with a ton of competition as the only single digit game outside of the first game of the season against Cromwell-Wright, was a one point win against Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa.
Henning is the top class A team in Strength of Record, but they are lacking a marquee victory that the top two seeds have. Rated as the second best team in the tournament they will get a chance to prove their worth.
Heritage Christian knocked off a solid Mayer Lutheran squad to return to the State Tournament. The Eagles are rated as the fourth best team, but are seventh of the eight teams in Strength of Record.
Waterville-Elysian-Morristown picked up solid wins all season against high level class A and AA competition. That is the reason for the third best Strength of Record in the tournament. A brutal path to the title drops their chances to win it all.
Sleepers: Belgrade-Brooten-Elrosa
A certain someone noted in December that the Jaguars could be a top eight team in class A even though they had a 4-6 record at the time. BBE is a dangerous team who has played a consistently tough schedule all season long, including a one point loss to Minneota.
Long Shots: Red Lake, Fillmore Central
Red Lake started the season 4-8, with four of those losses to fellow Section 8A teams. They then rattled of 17 wins in 18 games which included avenging three of those four losses in the section playoffs.
Fillmore Central was the surprise winner of Section 1A, although anyone other than Blooming Prairie coming out of that section would have been a surprise. The competition doesn’t get any easier for the Falcons, but if their effort against the Awesome Blossoms is any indication they are ready to put up a fight.
Analysis
Five teams are given a good chance to win and the sixth lost to the top seed by one point earlier in the season. My thought is that we are headed towards a rematch of the first game of the season between Minneota and Cromwell-Wright. I believe it will be another tight matchup but that the #2 seeded Cardinals will come away with the championship.