It’s time for the Prep Girls Hoops fall prospect rankings

“Rankings don’t matter!” How many times have you heard someone around basketball say that? I hear it a lot. The folks who make such claims obviously don’t have access to our website data which make it oh-so-obvious that rankings do matter – at least to the coaches, AAU club directors, players, families and fans who subscribe to Prep Girls Hoops. Month after month, year after year our rankings content is the most-viewed information we put out. That’s why we do our darndest to get it right.

It’s time for the fall prospect rankings update, the time of year when we add a few names to the senior and junior class rankings and shuffle the deck a little. We’ll also expand the sophomore class by another 25 prospects to 125. And of course it’s time for the first release of this year’s Freshmen 50, the initial ranking of the class of 2024.

Welcome to the class of 2024

We have put a ton of time into sorting out this year’s freshmen. It was a little different this time around because a number of potential top 50 prospects did not play this summer due to the COVID-19 pandemic. To ensure a level playing field, and offer the most opportunity to those who did participate, we decided not to include anyone who opted out. Once those prospects resume playing they will be evaluated like everyone else and will be placed appropriately.

On Thursday we offered you a little sneak preview of the freshmen class rankings and released eight of the 50 prospect names in advance. Early congratulations went to Kadence Hesse Kadence Hesse 5'10" | PG Sleepy Eye | 2024 State MN (Sleepy Eye), Emma Frost Emma Frost 5'11" | SF Andover | 2024 State MN (Andover), Norah Danielson Norah Danielson 6'0" | SF Delano | 2024 State MN (Delano), Cece McNair Cece McNair 6'2" | PF Prior Lake | 2024 State MN (Prior Lake), Kayla Christy Kayla Christy 6'0" | PF Elk River | 2024 State MN (Elk River), Kiera O’Rourke Kiera O’Rourke 6'0" | CG Holy Angels | 2024 State MN (Holy Angels), Daviney Dreckman Daviney Dreckman 5'8" | CG New Ulm | 2024 State MN (New Ulm) and Julia Thoms Julia Thoms 5'11" | PG Prior Lake | 2024 State MN (Prior Lake). The remaining 42 names will be published on the weekend.

Here are a few facts about this year’s Freshmen 50:

• The pool of talented prospects in Greater Minnesota continues to grow and 20% of the players are from beyond the 7-county Twin Cities region. They hail from St. Peter, New Ulm and Sleepy Eye in the South, to Mountain Iron and Chisholm in the North, plus Royalton and Perham in between.
• Six of the 50 prospects are from private schools, including Benilde-St. Margaret’s, St. Croix Lutheran, Minnehaha Academy, Totino-Grace, Holy Angels and Holy Family.
• Large schools still dominate with more than 35 players competing on behalf of big 4A programs.
• The suburbs continue to pump out the most players. Only one prospect in this year’s class is from Hopkins. Minnetonka, Eastview, Prior Lake and Andover lead the way with three players apiece while there are two each from Maple Grove, Delano, Shakopee and Spring Lake Park.
• There are 14 different AAU clubs represented among the top 2024s. Using the players’ intended 2021 teams as a reference, Minnesota Fury UAA leads the way with nine players while the club’s Premier (formerly Yellow) squad has six. There are eight players from North Tartan, six from the Suns, four from the Stars and three each from the Metro Stars and FBC North.
• Perhaps most interestingly, 11 of the top 50 freshmen stand 6’0 or taller with another 16 measuring in at 5’10 or 5’11. Just one ranked prospect is under 5’7.

How do the rankings work?

In 2018 we revamped the format for Minnesota’s prospect rankings, reducing the overall number of players ranked in any given class to 150. We wanted it to become a more exclusive club, a tougher challenge to pursue, and a greater accomplishment to achieve. The number 150 was also important because that is about how many Minnesota girls make it to college basketball in an average year.

Players are officially ranked for the first time in the fall of their freshman year. The prior spring we publish a watch list of 20 names listed in alphabetical order. Six months later we are announcing the Freshmen 50. Not surprisingly, 19 of those 20 players made the grade. The only one missing is Katie Vasecka Katie Vasecka 6'1" | CG South Dakota | 2024 MN , formerly of New Prague, who recently moved to South Dakota. That means she is no longer eligible to be ranked in Minnesota which is unfortunate. She would have been #2.

There’s no doubt that rankings are popular. They can also be controversial. Everyone wants to know who decides whether or not a player makes the list and what the standards are. There is one important criteria that gets misunderstood every single time we update the rankings. That’s why we issue a reminder ahead of time and put it in big, bold type:

OUR RANKINGS ARE ABOUT COLLEGE POTENTIAL, NOT CURRENT PERFORMANCE.

That is the most important thing to know. Determining who the best players are today is challenging enough but trying to figure out who will be the best collegiate players four years from now can be very difficult. That’s why we put so much time and effort into it. Here’s a few things to know.

• Size matters. Everyone is looking for height and length and it is in short supply. That’s why 6’1 girls are ranked higher than 5’6 girls for the most part, even if their current play may not warrant that differentiation. Small guards are a dime a dozen and they need to be super-skilled like Minnesota commit Katie Borowicz Katie Borowicz 5'6" | PG Roseau | 2021 State MN of Roseau to earn a high ranking.
• Geography matters. If you live in Northern Minnesota or the far Southwestern part of the state, play at a small school that rarely travels and don’t play AAU basketball you’re going to have a tough time making the list. At least initially. If you want exposure you need to commit to getting it which means putting the miles on mom’s minivan. The Borowicz example applies here, too, since Roseau to Bloomington is a 700-mile round trip.
• You can’t buy your way on the list. The exposure opportunities provided by the Prep Girls Hoops Top 250 Expo, the Minnesota Fall Exclusive and the Recruit Me platform are great ways for players to market themselves and gain visibility but they won’t guarantee you a spot in the rankings. I love a good steak and a cold beer but offering to purchase me one isn’t going to help your kid’s ranking.
• We are always watching. I personally saw more than 170 high school teams last season. We watch every AAU event and showcase, attend practices and training sessions and talk to a ton of people. Over the past few years we have developed a network of basketball folks around Minnesota who are watching on our behalf, too.
• We have a diverse group of evaluators, and we get new people to review the information every time we update the rankings. Among the participants are current and former AAU, high school and college coaches from all levels. Everyone involved is granted anonymity and that’s what makes it so effective. You’d be amazed how blunt coaches are about their own players when they know it will be kept on the down low!

There are a lot of things we look for when evaluating players. Beyond height and length we’re seeking natural athleticism, skill development, court vision, innate understanding of the game, teamwork, body language, plus leadership and communication skills. We’re also on the lookout for ornery parents who can do more to hurt their child’s college opportunity than they can possibly fathom. Pro tip: Sending a nasty email to the Prep Girls Hoops scout because he hasn’t written about your 8th grader yet probably isn’t going to help you in the long run. My tolerance level for bullying parents and general ignorance diminishes by the year.

Having said all that, our approach to prospect rankings works very well for the most part. Is it perfect? Of course not. We make mistakes. We miss players in the first ranking of a class. And sometimes things don’t pan out the way we expect. That’s life. We know there will be plenty of disappointed players and parents when the first group of 2024s is released. In reality, the next 20 players on the list could just have easily been included and they will probably make the cut when we grow it to 75 players this winter. In the meantime they should keep their noses to the grindstone and their eyes on the prize because we will be watching.