Winter rankings update: How we rate the prospects

By the time your player reaches her senior year, it’s old hat – you know how the rankings process works, you are used to the ups and downs on the bumpy road to college basketball and you have come to accept that no evaluation process is perfect. For those who are new to the Prep Girls Hoops ranking process – about 20 percent of our audience at any given time – it can be stressful. That’s why we always begin the release of the updated rankings by offering a helpful primer. With the 2022 rankings ready for release, this is our reminder of how it all works.

10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT THE PROSPECT RANKINGS

Minnesota’s Prep Girls Hoops prospect rankings are compiled by our writers with input from high school, club and college coaches who watch Minnesota girls basketball on a regular basis. We may not always get it right but we do try our darndest. If we fail it isn’t from lack of effort. We also try really hard to be fair but we’re human. In the end we know some folks will not be happy, and that’s OK. Rankings are updated three times a year, in September, February and June. Here are 10 things to know about how we do it.

#1. There are a lot of people involved – We always involve a variety of folks in reviewing draft rankings and contributing names and evaluations of new prospects. Just as importantly, it’s not the same people every time. We try to switch it up to provide different perspectives.

#2. All evaluators are granted anonymity – That’s so they can say what they really think about a player‘s potential without repercussions. I am the only one involved who knows exactly which people are participating at any given time and I never share that information with anyone else.

#3. Participants come from a variety of perspectives – We have current and former AAU coaches, current and former high school coaches, long-time basketball observers, as well as college coaches. There are males and females; people of various ethnic and racial backgrounds; urban and rural folks; and an age range from early 20s to the 70s.

#4. We watch a ton of basketball – One of the good things to come out of the COVID-19 pandemic is the proliferation of livestreaming. This has allowed us to watch more players than ever, which has been particularly beneficial to kids who live in far-flung corners of Minnesota. Suddenly being way up on the Canadian border is less of a hindrance than it used to be.

#5. Nobody gets paid for their involvement – The evaluators do not get paid and, unlike some rankings/recruiting services, players cannot pay for a place in the rankings, either. When college coaches look at our list they know that everyone has earned their way in.

#6. College coaches have a lot of influence – If there is no clear consensus on the top players in each class we give the college folks the last word. It’s rare that a large group of evaluators will put their top 10 kids in the same order but they are often very similar and that guides our decisions.

#7. Geography matters – We try to watch players across the state in person as much as possible, but there are limits. Most of us have day jobs and it can be difficult to get out of town as often as we would like. Fortunately we have developed a great network of observers around the state and they keep us up to date on what’s happening in their region. Kudos to the high school coaches who tweet and post stats and send us messages. We appreciate you!

#8. AAU is really important – In the winter update we are obviously adding players who are making their mark in high school basketball. This is particularly important for kids who don’t play AAU, which is still the primary way to be seen. Kids who don’t play AAU are greatly diminishing their opportunity to be ranked as well as their college options.

#9. Choosing another primary sport will move you down the list – Athletes, particularly seniors, who choose a different sport will usually drop down or be removed entirely. Why? Because a talented athlete with options who decides to play volleyball ( Britt Carlson Britt Carlson 6'4" | PF East Ridge | 2022 State MN of Eastview or Sadie Voss Sadie Voss 5'9" | CG Jackson County Central | 2022 State MN of Jackson County Central, for example) is no longer a good college basketball prospect. Others are removed when they make it known they don’t intend to play at the next level.

#10. The rankings are about college potential, not current performance – Let me repeat that. THIS LIST IS ABOUT COLLEGE POTENTIAL, NOT CURRENT PERFORMANCE. This is the thing that causes the most heartburn for all involved, especially among keenly-interested parents who want their child to reach the pinnacle. It’s why a gangly freshman who has barely cracked the varsity lineup can be ranked 30 spots ahead of a highly-skilled guard who is a starter. Players who are 6’2 and athletic are few and far between, even if they aren’t yet showing what they are capable of. Small guards are a dime a dozen and you’d better be really, really good like Kennedy Sanders Kennedy Sanders 5'8" | CG Chaska | 2023 State MN or Ronnie Porter Ronnie Porter 5'2" | CG Como Park | 2022 State MN if you want be on the north end of the list. We’re making predictions and the odds are almost always better for the tall. It’s just a fact.

Does the process work? For the most part it does. Division 1 prospects are generally in the top 30. Kids that project D2 are normally in the 30 to 80 range. Of course some top 20 kids choose to go D2 close to home and some kids ranked 100 or higher get to scholarship-level basketball. That’s inevitable, as is the fact that some players get missed altogether, usually because they don’t play AAU. Bottom line: The process isn’t perfect but we do our best.

Thanks for your interest.