Recapping Your Predictions
About a week ago, I ran a poll to see where the general public could make predictions with anonymity. Today, I want to review some things I noticed in the responses. Those will range from small statistical details to some…
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Continue ReadingAbout a week ago, I ran a poll to see where the general public could make predictions with anonymity. Today, I want to review some things I noticed in the responses. Those will range from small statistical details to some of the more obvious topics, like favorites in each sectional.
Division 1
Sectional 1
Outside of two dissenting selections for Hudson and Appleton North, 67 of the 69 picks made in D1S1 were for either Hotonville or Neenah, which isn’t all that surprising. One thing that was a minor point of interest was the selections made around those two teams. People who picked Hortonville tended to pick a team like Franklin at a significantly lower rate than people who selected Neenah. That doesn’t mean almost anything, but it is an interesting little piece of information.
For the votes that Hortonville got, the selections in S4 were even throughout and showed a clear split opinion on that sectional. However, there’s more faith in Muskego from people who selected Hortonville than people who picked Neenah. Of Muskego’s 21 picks, 11 also picked Hortonville, and nine made Neenah their pick.
Sectional 2
I thought this sectional would be a toss-up when the WIAA released it, and it seems like you felt the same way. S2 had the most teams receiving votes of any of the 20 sectionals.
Kimberly got 40.3% of the votes in S2, but their sectional was also the only one in D1, where more than three teams received more than 10% of the selections.
The only extra tidbit was that all but one voter for Brookfield East (13) selected either Arrowhead or Kettle Moraine in S3, which showed a touch of MKE bias, but I couldn’t weigh it against anything to see if that was the case.
Sectional 3
Arrowhead was the overwhelming favorite in S3, earning nearly 65% of the vote. That’s in line with how most people think in the state on this sectional, and the Warhawks earned the most selections of anyone in D1.
I don’t believe there’s much else to read into the data other than people expect to see Arrowhead at the Resch Center.
Sectional 4
Franklin is the narrow favorite in S4 ahead of Oak Creek and Muskego, but not by much. Oak Creek and Muskego received more than 28% of the selections, which shows how up in the air this sectional is among those three.
One piece of information was that although the selections, Franklin “favorites” S1, S2, and S3. A significant portion of the picks for the Sabers also included Arrowhead, whereas others had other teams like Verona, Kettle Moraine, or Oregon alongside them.
Division 2
Sectional 1
The overwhelming opinion on S1 is that Notre Dame will get through to state, and with their track record, it’s hard to bet against. 87% of the vote was for the Tritons in S1.
Sectional 2
The exact number and percentage of people voted for Pewaukee in S2. It’s a similar story to S1. It’s hard to bet against a team that’s most of their state runner-up teams over the past two years.
Sectional 3
I was surprised by how overwhelming the expectations were for McFarland this season. Yes, they played well against Notre Dame, but I was surprised they ran away with the vote.
Monona Grove may be flying under the radar this season, even though they only lost to McFarland last season by a point in sectionals and have most of their kids back this season.
Another tidbit is the relationship between Tosa East voters also voting for McFarland. Of the 12 ballots that picked Tosa East to win S4, 11 also selected McFarland in S2.
Sectional 4
Pius seems to be the favorite in S4, but the confidence is much more tepid than any other sectional in D2, only receiving just over 50% of votes.
One of my favorite tidbits of the poll was the correlation of Whitefish Bay ballots to other longshot teams in D2. Lakeland, Rice Lake, Menomonie, West Salem, Waukesha West, Deforest, and Grafton each received votes on Whitefish Bay ballots.
Division 3
Sectional 1
Every sectional in D3 seems like they’re up for grabs in some fashion. In S1, Prescott is the favorite and didn’t receive 40% of the vote. It also appeared like you all have a strong confidence in Elk Mound. The biggest takeaway in D3 is the lack of clear favorites in most of the division.
Sectional 2
In S2, you all believe Xavier will come out of this sectional. I also find it interesting that most of you still have faith in Freedom after everything they lost in their senior class last season.
Sectional 3
S3 is the only sectional where a team earned more than 50% of the vote, and Waupun received 62%. There is still plenty to work on after their struggles last season, but the talent is there, and that’s indisputable.
Sectional 4
D3S4 may be my favorite. It is one of two sectionals with six teams receiving votes, and it’s as unpredictable as any sectional. Oostburg is your favorite and is the one team with most of their scoring back who made sectionals last season.
Division 4
Sectional 1
It feels like an inevitable matchup between McDonell and Fall Creek, and you all seem to feel that way. McDonell is the team you believe will take the sectional after winning D5 last year. I like the dynamics of the young Fall Creek group against a seasoned McDonell group.
Sectional 2
Most of the voters went with Laconia, which is fair. It’ll likely take someone beating them in the D4 postseason for the perception of them to change statewide.
Sectional 3
Although Cuba City earned the most votes here, it’s not a runaway. You all seem split over who that next team is, but it shows the depth of teams in the sectional. Bonduel was a Carly Drew Carly Drew 5'8" | CG Westfield | 2024 State WI shot away from going to state two years ago, Westfield made two state tournaments in a row, and New Glarus was an unlucky game away from playing a sectional final last season.
Sectional 4
Of all the sectionals, I’m most surprised by this result. I expected Racine Prairie to be a runaway winner here but ended neck and neck with Random Lake. I’m not sure if that’s from the support of the Rams locally or from the lack of confidence in the Hawks, who I’m sure may use this as bulletin board material.
Division 5
Sectional 1
I don’t know if this sectional could have ended much more. I like small-school basketball because any of the schools you voted for could end up in Green Bay, and we wouldn’t bat an eye.
Sectional 2
Edgar lost in the sectional final against Wabeno/Laona last season. Although they lost some key pieces, you all seemed most confident in them making their program’s first state tournament.
Sectional 3
Most of you believe the runner-ups will get back to the state, and usually, that’s a safe bet, but I am surprised Barneveld didn’t get more of the vote. Cochrane-Fountain City also has a lot back from last season.
Sectional 4
S4 is another one that’s split. I love this sectional because of the different styles these teams will play, from the bully-ball of Randolph to the guard-oriented game that Lourdes Academy plays. Contrasting styles make fights and good basketball games.