Takeaways From Selection Sunday, and a Possible Long Term Issue
In my two articles today, I want to discuss some takeaways from how seeding went yesterday and how it may affect seasons ahead. I also want to highlight some first-round matchups to keep an eye on next Tuesday and Friday.…
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Continue ReadingIn my two articles today, I want to discuss some takeaways from how seeding went yesterday and how it may affect seasons ahead. I also want to highlight some first-round matchups to keep an eye on next Tuesday and Friday.
I’ve talked about it before, but the raw RPI weighs the strength of your opponent’s record the most by a significant margin. In the seedings released by the WIAA, it appeared that the highest weighted aspect of their formula is your winning percentage.
That may not seem like a big deal when reading it, but scheduling non-conference does create uncertainty in future seasons.
Everyone wants to see the best teams in the state play each other, and people will watch those games. However, if we look at Homestead, we see a cautionary tale.
The Highlanders played some of the best teams in the state. Verona, Arrowhead, Pewaukee, Neenah, and Hortonville were on their non-conference schedule, and the Highlanders ended up going 1-4 in that stretch, which is better than 99% of the state. However, those four losses ended up landing a five-seed.
The Highlanders are a team that can still get out of Sectional Two in D1, but now they have the most challenging path of anyone to get to the Resch Center because they didn’t win more of their non-conference games.
Looking forward to seasons ahead, what’s the incentive the best teams have to play a talented non-conference schedule? Outside of players and coaches being competitive people, I don’t see anything that would lead a program to play the best possible schedule.
I am a fan of the WIAA using a formula to seed teams because it cuts out a lot of the fat from coaches arguing their cases. However, we’re now in a place where head-to-heads and strength of schedule mean little to nothing. Were the margins fractional between McFarland-Monona Grove and Brookfield East-Kimberly? I’d assume so, but then I have to ask, why would Monona Grove and Kimberly want to play McFarland and Brookfield East if they could redo this season? Because it didn’t change much for them.
Overall, I don’t see an issue using a form of adjusted RPI to seed teams because it makes things easier for everyone involved. However, if the WIAA wants to incentivize teams to have the best record possible instead of playing the best teams, they can in their non-conference games. I fear we’ll see fewer high-profile non-conference games, which could lead to a diluted regular season with teams scheduling as many wins as possible instead of games.