Section Previews By the Numbers: 2A, 3A, 1AA, 2AA, 3AA
Six sections have either already begun tournament play, begin today, or begin Tuesday and have their bracket already set. What follows will be what the numbers say about who will be moving on to each round, and eventually to the…
Access all of Prep Girls Hoops
Continue reading this article and more.
Continue ReadingSix sections have either already begun tournament play, begin today, or begin Tuesday and have their bracket already set. What follows will be what the numbers say about who will be moving on to each round, and eventually to the State Tournament. Section 1A has already begun and was previewed in last week’s By the Numbers column.
Section 2A
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Waterville-Elysian-Morristown | 100 | 99.99 | 99.24 | 93.35 | 68.91 | 1.5 |
N4 | BOLD | 100 | 96.25 | 64.75 | 54.05 | 20.98 | 4.8 |
N1 | Sleepy Eye St. Mary's | 100 | 99.88 | 34.83 | 24.5 | 6.01 | 17 |
N3 | Buffalo Lake-Hector-Stewart | 100 | 98.53 | 48.61 | 10.78 | 1.43 | 70 |
S2 | Springfield | 100 | 98.78 | 77.74 | 6.04 | 1.38 | 73 |
N2 | Central MN Christian | 100 | 99.9 | 51.37 | 10.57 | 1.24 | 81 |
S3 | St. Clair | 100 | 92.01 | 21.79 | 0.46 | 0.04 | 2645 |
N5 | Sleepy Eye | 100 | 3.75 | 0.42 | 0.1 | <0.01 | 23099 |
S4 | Mountain Lake-Comfrey | 100 | 56.45 | 0.43 | 0.08 | <0.01 | 28422 |
S5 | Martin County West | 100 | 43.55 | 0.33 | 0.06 | <0.01 | 32892 |
S6 | Truman/Martin Luther/GHEC | 100 | 7.99 | 0.38 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 6488488 |
S7 | Nicollet/Loyola | 100 | 1.22 | 0.09 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 164442835 |
N6 | Renville County West | 100 | 1.47 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 632033444 |
N9 | New Ulm Cathedral | 38.87 | 0.05 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 316044542394 |
N8 | Cedar Mountain | 61.13 | 0.07 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 351383843532 |
S8 | United South Central | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 477335228625 |
N7 | Cleveland | 100 | 0.1 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1595866977619 |
The Favorite
BOLD is a heavy favorite here with about a two-thirds chance to represent the section at state. I’m not going to go as far as guarantee they win it, but I’d certainly be surprised if they didn’t.
The Contenders
Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s has a reasonable chance and gives the North half of the section the top two teams. Beyond them, Mountain Lake/Comfrey and Springfield have small chances, mostly because someone has to represent the South.
The Sleepers
Is it strange to have Sleepy Eye be the sleeper team? They have a challenging road ahead of them, but they have already beaten the #2 and #3 seed in the north half. They are not given a great percentage chance to advance to the sub-section finals, but at least we know it’s possible.
My Pick: BOLD
Section 3A
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N1 | Minneota | 100 | 99.74 | 98.13 | 95.57 | 86.34 | 1.2 |
S1 | Hills-Beaver Creek | 100 | 99.94 | 97.13 | 54.93 | 6.76 | 15 |
S2 | Southwest MN Christian | 100 | 99.86 | 91.36 | 44.22 | 5.91 | 17 |
N3 | Lac qui Parle Valley | 100 | 86.74 | 48.93 | 1.93 | 0.46 | 216 |
N2 | Lakeview | 100 | 77.38 | 42.26 | 1.57 | 0.37 | 273 |
N4 | Yellow Medicine East | 100 | 56.06 | 1.25 | 0.58 | 0.11 | 902 |
N5 | Canby | 100 | 43.94 | 0.58 | 0.24 | 0.03 | 2938 |
S3 | Adrian-Ellsworth | 100 | 97.22 | 8.62 | 0.64 | 0.01 | 10430 |
N7 | Russell-Tyler-Ruthton | 100 | 22.62 | 6.48 | 0.09 | 0.01 | 13137 |
S4 | Red Rock Central | 100 | 61.43 | 1.95 | 0.16 | <0.01 | 72475 |
N6 | Wabasso | 100 | 13.26 | 2.33 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 115213 |
S5 | Murray County Central | 100 | 38.57 | 0.91 | 0.05 | <0.01 | 274734 |
N8 | MACCRAY | 96.85 | 0.26 | 0.04 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 422201 |
S6 | Heron Lake-Okabena/Fulda | 100 | 2.78 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 7624955732 |
S8 | Edgerton | 100 | 0.06 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 44315584758 |
S7 | Westbrook-Walnut Grove | 100 | 0.14 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 223550720894 |
N9 | Dawson-Boyd | 3.15 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2303935183878 |
The Favorite
There are two undefeated teams (vs. MN teams), but the system sees one of them as much stronger than the other. Minneota has handled just about every Minnesota team they have played this year, with their closest game being a 14-point win over Lac qui Parle Valley.
The Contenders
Hills-Beaver Creek has also run through every team they have played this year. Sign me up for a section final of undefeated teams, and it looks like we have about a 66% chance of that happening. Lac qui Parle Valley also has an outside chance to win the section but would have to knock off two unbeatens to do so.
The Sleepers
This section is very top heavy both in seed and geography. This section might be the most likely to have zero upsets in the whole tournament. Also intriguing, all nine North half teams have a better chance to win it all than the fifth seed in the South.
My Pick: Minneota
Section 1AA
Seed | Team | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Rochester Lourdes | 100 | 99.96 | 97.65 | 85.81 | 59.74 | 1.7 |
2 | Lake City | 100 | 98.17 | 93.40 | 51.14 | 19.58 | 5.1 |
3 | Goodhue | 100 | 99.96 | 93.35 | 47.69 | 17.11 | 5.8 |
5 | Stewartville | 100 | 98.86 | 63.69 | 10.11 | 2.82 | 35 |
4 | Winona Cotter | 100 | 99.23 | 36.26 | 3.70 | 0.67 | 149 |
6 | Zumbrota-Mazeppa | 100 | 92.96 | 6.61 | 0.73 | 0.04 | 2337 |
9 | Triton | 100 | 51.50 | 1.63 | 0.30 | 0.02 | 4734 |
7 | Dover-Eyota | 100 | 94.69 | 5.95 | 0.42 | 0.02 | 5792 |
8 | Plainview-Elgin-Millville | 100 | 48.50 | 0.71 | 0.08 | <0.01 | 32521 |
15 | Pine Island | 100 | 1.83 | 0.61 | 0.02 | <0.01 | 215598 |
11 | Chatfield | 100 | 7.04 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 26209861 |
12 | Kenyon-Wanamingo | 100 | 1.14 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 69774905 |
10 | St. Charles | 100 | 5.31 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 137751770 |
16 | Cannon Falls | 68.16 | 0.03 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1907444714 |
13 | La Crescent | 100 | 0.77 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 4173545768 |
14 | Lewiston-Altura | 100 | 0.04 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 32981245817 |
17 | Caledonia | 31.84 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 34025277578 |
The Favorite
Lake City is the favorite by a slim margin. Wins over Stewartville and Rochester Lourdes towards the end of the season earned them the top seed. The reason they are the favorite is directly related to the fact that their quarterfinal game is not against a top seven team.
The Contenders
Between Lake City, Zumbrota-Mazeppa, Stewartville, and Rochester Lourdes, I might roll a 4-sided dice and make that my pick for section champion. In my limited time doing this, I’ve never seen a section so evenly matched between this many teams. Throw in Caledonia and Winona Cotter and you have an exciting tournament ahead with six really high quality teams.
The Sleepers
Triton’s path to the championship is brutal, but they still are given the 8th best chance to win it. Close losses early in the season give them the 8th best rating in the section as the 11 seed. They might end up getting blown out in their first game at Stewartville, but if you want an extreme dark horse, the Cobras are the team.
My Pick: Rochester Lourdes
Section 2AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
S1 | Waseca | 100 | 99.9997 | 97.25 | 89.24 | 52.36 | 1.9 |
N2 | Jordan | 100 | 95.79 | 82.20 | 42.43 | 18.38 | 5.4 |
N1 | Belle Plaine | 100 | 88.15 | 77.41 | 42.95 | 18.22 | 5.5 |
S2 | Medford | 100 | 99.14 | 53.56 | 5.40 | 0.87 | 116 |
S3 | Lake Crystal-Wellcome Memorial | 100 | 91.28 | 45.38 | 4.49 | 0.71 | 142 |
N3 | Glencoe-Silver Lake | 100 | 69.87 | 12.87 | 2.68 | 0.37 | 268 |
N5 | Norwood-Young America | 100 | 83.17 | 12.37 | 2.49 | 0.3 | 336 |
S4 | Fairmont | 100 | 91.15 | 2.72 | 0.90 | 0.07 | 1435 |
N6 | Tri-City United | 100 | 30.13 | 3.74 | 0.54 | 0.05 | 2007 |
N7 | Sibley East | 100 | 4.21 | 1.18 | 0.11 | 0.01 | 16963 |
N8 | LeSueur-Henderson | 91.28 | 3.13 | 0.92 | 0.07 | <0.01 | 32400 |
N4 | Minnesota Valley Lutheran | 100 | 16.83 | 0.59 | 0.03 | <0.01 | 145998 |
S6 | NRHEG | 100 | 8.72 | 1.04 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 270624 |
S5 | Maple River | 100 | 8.85 | 0.09 | 0.01 | <0.01 | 971105 |
N9 | Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop | 8.72 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1558538487 |
S7 | Blue Earth | 100 | 0.86 | 0.02 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 2593729200 |
S8 | Janesville-Waldorf-Pemberton | 100 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 1391984358224870 |
The Favorite
Norwood Young America leads the pack in Section 2AA with just shy of a coin flip’s chance to be the champions. The South half has better depth, which means you are more likely to see coin flip games that do not lend themselves well to high championship probabilities.
The Contenders
Four teams boast a reasonable chance (>10%) to win this section. Unbeaten Medford joins Jordan and St. Peter as teams that can challenge Norwood Young America. Since Medford and St. Peter are more likely to cross paths, both teams’ chances take a slight hit, but the winner will likely be favored in the Sub-Section Championship. Jordan has already beaten NYA this year so would head into that potential matchup with some confidence.
The Sleepers
If Blue Earth was on the other half of the South bracket, they would be favored to make the Sub-Section Championship. As it currently sits, they have to go through St. Peter and Medford to get there. Looking at the bright side for the Bucs, they played competitive games with both of those teams during the regular season. If you’re looking for a first round upset, keep an eye on Maple River and Fairmont.
My Pick: Norwood Young America
Section 3AA
Seed | R16 | Qtrs | Semis | Finals | Champ | 1 in ??? | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
N1 | New London-Spicer | 100 | 99.991 | 96.42 | 78.52 | 75.95 | 1.3 |
N2 | Eden Valley-Watkins | 100 | 99.56 | 61.76 | 13.97 | 12.55 | 8 |
N3 | Morris/Chokio-Alberta | 100 | 84.81 | 35.96 | 6.78 | 5.81 | 17 |
S2 | Windom | 100 | 80.67 | 48.35 | 29.06 | 2.15 | 47 |
S1 | Luverne | 100 | 91.21 | 56.85 | 28.14 | 1.35 | 74 |
S5 | Jackson County Central | 100 | 73.16 | 35.81 | 16.18 | 0.81 | 124 |
S3 | Redwood Valley | 100 | 66.41 | 31.88 | 17.08 | 0.72 | 139 |
N5 | Minnewaska | 100 | 63.74 | 2.95 | 0.54 | 0.35 | 284 |
S6 | Pipestone | 100 | 33.59 | 13.73 | 6.37 | 0.16 | 607 |
N6 | Litchfield | 100 | 15.19 | 2.26 | 0.14 | 0.09 | 1159 |
S7 | Montevideo | 100 | 19.33 | 6.03 | 2.07 | 0.03 | 3209 |
N4 | Benson | 100 | 36.26 | 0.63 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 4323 |
S4 | Tracy-Milroy-Balaton | 100 | 26.84 | 5.37 | 0.87 | 0.01 | 18689 |
S8 | St. James | 100 | 8.79 | 1.97 | 0.24 | <0.01 | 93704 |
N7 | Paynesville | 100 | 0.44 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 36066413 |
N8 | Atwater-Cosmos-Grove City | 100 | 0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | <0.01 | 22859960697 |
The Favorite
Eden Valley-Watkins is undefeated and rated as the top overall team in AA and it shows here as they have over an 80% chance to win the section. The Eagles are in the more difficult half of the bracket, but they have played at a high level all season and ay team will need to play their best to beat them.
The Contenders
New London-Spicer and Eden Valley-Watkins squared off in the second game of the year for each team and the Eagles came away with a 12-point victory. A potential rematch looms in the sub-section finals with the winner taking becoming the favorite to win in the section final over whoever the South produces. Pipestone with 55% is the most likely candidate to represent the South and therefore have a slight chance to take the section.
The Sleepers
The lower seeds with the best chance to do some damage all reside in the South half. Martin County West, Windom, and Jackson County Central all have outside chances to be Sub-Section champions, although their chances to win the section aren’t great.
My Pick: Eden Valley-Watkins