Semi-State Preview: Jasper

What another eventful weekend, as there were a number of games that came down to the wire, even a handful of overtime games, but at the end of the day last Saturday, 16 teams advanced to the Semi-State Round of the IHSAA State Tournament. Tomorrow, we will see eight of those teams earn the right to advance to Bankers Life Fieldhouse and the State Finals on February 23rd. Below is a look at the four teams and the two matchups to take place this Saturday, February 16th, at Jasper High School. All four teams are ranked, three of them highly ranked, within their respective classes, and this should make for an entertaining and competitive day of basketball.   SAG = Current 2018-2019 Multiclass Sagarin Rating; SOS = Current 2018-2019 Strength of Schedule *All Game Times Are Eastern Time*   4:00 P.M. – CLASS 1A SOUTH SEMI-STATE University (24-2) SAG 58; SOS 325 University has had an outstanding season, and they are about as talented and deep as anyone in Class 1A. They get good guard play from Brooke Andrus (2019), Lily Snyder (2019), Haley Tomlinson (2019), and Maddi Sears (2020), but they also have a pretty imposing frontline led by 6-2 Lindsey Syrek (2020), Jhordan McGuire (2019), and Jenna Blakley (2019). Vincennes Rivet (28-0) SAG 31; SOS 154 Rivet finished as the State Runner-Up in Class 1A last season, and they’ve put together an even better season than they did a year ago. The trio of Senior wing Grace Waggoner, Junior wing Tia Tolbert, and Freshman forward Meredith Weiss are a tough matchup for any team in Class 1A. Those three can carry them at times, but they could use consistent contributions from Molly Niehaus (2019), Macee Hamilton (2020), Caroline Herman (2020), and Lauren Carie (2021). Why University will win: If University values the basketball, moves it around throughout their offense, and gets contributions from seven or eight different players, I think that gives them the best chance to succeed. Rivet will score the ball, so University needs to match them, limit live-ball turnovers, and keep the number of total possessions in the low 60s, not allow it to get in the 70s. Why Rivet will win: Experience will be the key here for Rivet. Other than Marquette Catholic last year in the State Finals, University will be the deepest and most talented Class 1A team they’ve faced since then. They just need to continue to do what they always do and not deviate from their own identity. They’ve played a tough schedule this year, and that should reward them in this game. Key Player: This game could very well come down to how Lindsey Syrek (2020) handles herself in this environment. She has the height and skill to be the one mismatch Rivet could struggle with, so she must avoid nervous or over-aggressive fouls early in the game so she can give University 28+ minutes of play. Her presence on the floor will force Rivet to play a little different defensively, and to take more long jumps-shots offensively. Prediction: Vincennes Rivet 55, University 52   6:30 P.M. – CLASS 3A SOUTH SEMI-STATE Benton Central (25-4) SAG 25; SOS 102 After an impressive weekend by Salem, Benton Central actually looks to be a miniscule underdog here, but they shouldn’t be. They have a really nice Senior wing in Emma Fisher who leads them. Junior forward Kelsey Coffman and Junior post Audrey Strawsma man the frontline. But this is a “team” by the truest of definitions, and they get more help from Cassidy Minniear (2019), Keely Meadows (2020), Abby Cooley (2019), and Kyrah Tucker (2021). Salem (24-3) SAG 41; SOS 67 Salem put on a show last weekend, taking out Greensburg and Gibson Southern both by 14 or more points. The backcourt of Leah Miller (2020) and Hope Tomlinson (2020) will always give them an upper hand. Lettie Nice (2020) is a nice presence in the paint, and athlete Mackenzie Underwood (2019) gives them another productive front-liner. Look for Karly Sweeney (2021) and Natalie Noel (2022) to be involved as well. Why Benton Central will win: Coach David Baxter and the Bison have been in this position before in 2011 and 2013, advancing to the State Finals in 2011. They will be prepared for the environment and stick to their game plan regardless of how the game is flowing. Also, Benton Central’s matchup zone could really frustrate Salem, especially if Salem isn’t hitting shots. Why Salem will win: Salem is hot right now. If they can carry their emotion and energy over to yet another weekend, that could be huge, especially considering Hope Tomlinson (2020) played limited minutes last weekend due to an illness. They impressed me last week with their discipline and effort, and those are two of the biggest non-statistical items you can fall back on. Key Players: While they may not specifically defend each other, I think this comes down to Emma Fisher (2019) vs. Leah Miller (2020). There are several really nice basketball players on both teams in this game, but these are the two who can take over and dictate the outcome. If both play well (or both play poorly), I think it’s a one possession game throughout. But if only one of them has a huge game, I think it favors that team by eight points or more. Prediction: Salem 52, Benton Central 47   Header photo of the Salem High School team in December of this year; photo courtesy of Josh Lewis of the Salem Leader at salemleader.com.