By the Numbers: Early Season Predictions
Team Rankings Predictions in the early season are, for lack of a better word, guesswork. I have mentioned it before, but I am fully aware that there are many teams that are overrated and underrated in my preseason ratings because…
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Continue ReadingPredictions in the early season are, for lack of a better word, guesswork. I have mentioned it before, but I am fully aware that there are many teams that are overrated and underrated in my preseason ratings because the computer does not consider any personnel information. With all that said, here is a quick synopsis of how they have done so far.
The overall record of predictions so far is 814-260, for a winning percentage of 75.8%. Based on the ratings, the expected record of those same games, plus the ones I do not have scores for yet, is 919-177, a winning percentage of 83.9%. So as far as wins and losses are concerned, the model is currently underachieving, but given the early season limitations of the model, it is in a reasonable place right now.
Besides the record, I keep track of two different values to help determine the success of the predictions. The first is average margin error. If a team is predicted to win by five and loses by ten, that is a margin error of 15. So far on the season, the average margin error is 15.7 points per game. For reference, last year’s predictions finished just a shade under 11 points per game.
The second value I keep track of is the total score bias. This helps me to determine if the total score predicted between both teams is too high or too low. Currently, each game is predicted with a total score of 7.6 points higher than the actual game total. Last year’s score bias was 2.3 points per game higher than the actual total.
At this point in the season, I try not to get too high or too low on the predictions. I am a little concerned with the current score bias, but I am hoping as the season goes on, the team ratings come down and the score predictions are lower. I do expect the predictions to get better as the season goes on and more accurate information about each team is available.
Biggest Upset
This section will feature the most unlikely winners. When the preseason ratings are involved, the unlikely winners have a chance to be the better team, but we use the ratings at the time of the game to determine who goes here.
Minneapolis Edison 50, CHOF 47 (0.26% chance of upset)
The Tommies picked up the upset for their only win on the young season. CHOF was able to follow it up with a victory over St. Paul Central.
Honorable Mention: Onamia 35, Rush City 28 (0.36%), Bertha-Hewitt 48, Long Prairie-Grey Eagle 43 (0.93%)
Biggest Gainers
This section will be reserved for the teams that move up the rankings the most.
A – South Ridge (previously Class A #100, currently #59)
- Wins – McGregor (46-28), Nashwauk-Keewatin (56-11), Duluth Denfeld (47-31)
- Losses – none
AA – Minnesota Valley Lutheran (previously Class AA #106, currently #51)
- Wins – Gibbon-Fairfax-Winthrop (64-30), West Lutheran (56-36)
- Losses – St. Croix Lutheran (82-45)
AAA – Chisago Lakes (previously Class AAA #49, currently #38)
- Wins – Cloquet (62-33)
- Losses – Cambridge-Isanti (52-39)
AAAA – Elk River (previously Class AAAA #19, currently #10)
- Wins – Osseo (78-35), Andover (48-29)
- Losses – Wayzata (55-45)
Biggest Fallers
This section will include the teams that fell down the rankings the most.
A – Lyle/Austin Pacelli (previously Class A #59, currently #95)
- Wins – LeRoy-Ostrander (52-43)
- Losses – Truman/Martin Luther/GHEC (73-36)
AA – Aitkin (previously Class AA #57, currently #93)
- Wins – none
- Losses – Virginia (70-54), Park Rapids (64-50), Rocori (76-33)
AAA – Bloomington Kennedy (previously Class AAA #22, currently #39)
- Wins – Mound-Westonka (68-61 OT)
- Losses – New Prague (72-38), Holy Family (68-37)
AAAA – Brainerd (previously Class AAAA #26, currently #40)
- Wins – St. Cloud Tech (51-43)
- Losses – Moorhead (47-24)
Highest Scoring Games
The offense has slowed down in the past week, dropping more than 3.5 points per game from the rest of the season to 103.5.
- Concordia Academy 92, St. Anthony Village 90
- Maple Grove 87, Rogers 84 (OT)
- Jackson County Central 89, Truman/Martin Luther/GHEC 67
- Cass Lake-Bena 82, Red Lake 68
- Southwest MN Christian 81, Central MN Christian 69
Predictions
Each week I will list the computer predictions for some of the more interesting games around the state. These predictions may change as the week goes on due to the outcomes of . All games that I am aware of each day are predicted on Twitter (@MNBBRatings).
Monday
- Minnesota Valley Lutheran @ Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s (Sleepy Eye St. Mary’s 73-67)
Tuesday
- Eastview @ Burnsville (Eastview 67-58)
- Michael-Albertville @ DeLaSalle (St. Michael-Albertville 72-62)
Wednesday
- Wayzata @ Park Center (Wayzata 85-79)
Thursday
- Crookston @ Roseau (Crookston 78-77)
- New London-Spicer @ Sauk Centre (Sauk Centre 54-52)
Friday
- Roseau @ Mountain Iron-Buhl (Mountain Iron-Buhl 91-86)
- Eden Prairie @ Lakeville North (Eden Prairie 80-78)
Saturday
- St. Louis Park @ Minnetonka (St. Louis Park 65-64)
Top photo: Sadie Voss Sadie Voss 5'9" | CG Jackson County Central | 2022 State MN and the Jackson County Central Huskies have been a buzzsaw this season, averaging 83.2 points per game. They will frequently find themselves in the top scoring games of the week.