There will be a state tournament, but who's going to win it?

It’s official: As long as the pandemic numbers continue to trend in the right direction there’s going to be a state tournament. That was the word that came out of the Minnesota State High School League meeting on Thursday, news that was greeted across the girls basketball landscape with a resounding, “Yeeeesssss!!!!!” Yep, the kids were excited. And their coaches. And their parents. And us, too. Now that there’s officially a chase for championships, who are the early favorites to win?

Regular season play began just three weeks ago, so it’s still early. But in a shortened season consisting of a maximum 18 games per team, we’re already a quarter of the way home and there are some trends emerging. There have been some surprises, too. Minnetonka almost beat Hopkins. Almost. Wayzata got off to a slow start. Very slow. But much of the first quarter has gone according to form. With the always-looming possibility of a COVID-related time out, every team is somewhat vulnerable.

The thing you really have to think about when trying to deduce whether a team has a legitimate shot at winning a state championship is what section they are in. That’s why Wayzata, for example, isn’t in our list of 10 favorites. Being from section 6 – the same section as Hopkins – means their chances of getting out of section play and on to the big dance are slim. If the Trojans resided in section 7 or 4 or 5 they’d have to be considered a contender. Conversely, our list contains three squads from section 2 – Minnetonka, Chaska and Eden Prairie – any of which are capable to advancing to the state tournament.

With all of that as a backdrop, these are the teams we currently deem the most likely to win a state championship.

10 TEAMS MOST LIKELY TO WIN CLASS 4A

Hopkins (section 6) – The Royals proved they are human but still escaped with a win over Minnetonka. Led by floor general Amaya Battle Amaya Battle 5'10" | PG Hopkins | 2022 State #29 Nation MN , they remain the heavy, heavy favorite to win state once again.

Farmington (1) – The Tigers are poised for a return to the championship game with a strong lineup led by Sophie Hart Sophie Hart 6'4" | C Farmington | 2021 State #44 Nation MN , Paige Kindseth Paige Kindseth 5'10" | CG Farmington | 2021 State MN and Peyton Blandin Peyton Blandin 5'8" | SG Farmington | 2021 State MN , but a short bench is a concern.

Chaska (2) – Chaska is loaded with star talent, from Mallory Heyer Mallory Heyer 6'1" | PF Chaska | 2022 State #36 Nation MN to Kennedy Sanders Kennedy Sanders 5'8" | CG Chaska | 2023 State MN to Kaylee Van Eps Kaylee Van Eps 5'11" | SF Chaska | 2021 State MN and beyond. Could this be the year they get to state?

Stillwater (4) – Stillwater has been knocking at the door, and even with the graduation of Liza Karlen Liza Karlen 6'2" | PF Stillwater | 2020 State MN and the other bigs, the Ponies are a serious contender thanks to Alexis Pratt Alexis Pratt 5'5" | PG Stillwater | 2021 State MN , Amber Scalia Amber Scalia 5'9" | CG Stillwater | 2022 State MN and Lizzie Holder Lizzie Holder 6'1" | PF Stillwater | 2022 State MN .

Maple Grove (8) – The Crimson are solid all around and deep, too. Led by Jordyn Lamker Jordyn Lamker 6'0" | SF Maple Grove | 2021 State MN , Ari Gordon Ari Gordon 5'10" | SF Maple Grove | 2022 State MN and Kylie Baranick Kylie Baranick 5'4" | CG Maple Grove | 2021 State MN , the addition of Kennedy Klick Kennedy Klick 6'0" | CG Maple Grove | 2023 State MN offers Maple Grove a whole new dimension.

Centennial (5) – Jenna Guyer Jenna Guyer 6'2" | C Centennial | 2021 State MN and Jodi Anderson Jodi Anderson 5'11" | CG Centennial | 2021 State MN are a two-headed monster for the Cougars, and the much improved play of junior Camille Cummings Camille Cummings 5'8" | CG Centennial | 2022 State MN is notable. Will it be enough?

St. Michael-Albertville (8) – STMA has a quality lineup from one end to the other, with Emma Miller Emma Miller 5'1" | PG STMA | 2022 State MN manning the point, Piper Carlson Piper Carlson 5'11" | SF St. Michael-Albertville | 2023 State MN banging inside and Kendal Cox Kendal Cox 5'9" | CG St. Michael-Albertville | 2021 State MN playing the best she’s ever played.

Rochester Mayo (1) – There’s something to be said for experience and undefeated Mayo has plenty with seniors Anna Miller Anna Miller 6'2" | C Rochester Mayo | 2021 State MN , Elli Collins Elli Collins 6'0" | SG Rochester Mayo | 2021 State MN and Mullk Hammadelniel, along with sophomore Hannah Hanson Hannah Hanson 5'9" | CG Rochester Mayo | 2023 State MN leading the way.

Eden Prairie (2) – The Eagles have been up and down so far but Nia Holloway Nia Holloway 6'0" | PF Eden Prairie | 2022 State #45 Nation MN , Molly Lenz Molly Lenz 5'8" | CG Eden Prairie | 2023 State MN and the rest of the Eden Prairie lineup has the chops to get out of section 2 again this year if the stars align just right.

10 TEAMS MOST LIKELY TO WIN CLASS 3A

Holy Angels (6) – The Stars have star power, a terrific supporting cast and tons of experience led by seniors Frankie Vascellaro Frankie Vascellaro 6'0" | SF Holy Angels | 2021 State MN and Rachel Kawiecki Rachel Kawiecki 5'10" | PF Holy Angels | 2021 State MN and juniors Kassie Caron Kassie Caron 6'0" | SF Holy Angels | 2022 State MN and Grace Massaquoi Grace Massaquoi 6'0" | PF Holy Angels | 2022 State MN .

Marshall (2) – The Tigers are led by 2,000-point scorer Jordyn Hilgemann Jordyn Hilgemann 5'10" | SF Marshall | 2021 State MN , but Marshall’s backbone is its tried-and-true system and the foot soldiers who execute it for coach Dan Westby. It just works.

Hill-Murray (4) – The Pioneers are fueled by a potent trio of veterans, including seniors Lilli Mackley Lilli Mackley 5'11" | CG Hill-Murray | 2021 State MN and Bella Hartzel Bella Hartzel 5'8" | SG Hill-Murray | 2021 State MN along with junior Ella Runyon Ella Runyon 5'11" | CG Hill-Murray | 2022 State MN . Their success, however, hinges on defense with a capital D.

Alexandria (8) – Wendy Kohler is the winningest female coach in Minnesota basketball history, and her Cardinals know a thing or two about championships, including PG Mataya Hoelscher Mataya Hoelscher 5'5" | CG Alexandria | 2021 State MN who has aged like fine wine.

Waconia (2) – Big dogs win big games and Waconia has three reliable standouts in senior Addy Salzer Addy Salzer 5'10" | CG Waconia | 2021 State MN and juniors Audrey Swanson Audrey Swanson 5'11" | SF Waconia | 2022 State MN and Ava Stier Ava Stier 5'10" | PF Waconia | 2022 State MN . Are they ready to prevail?

Mankato West (2) – I saw the Scarlets last weekend in Rochester and they were impressive. Sparked by senior Briana Stoltzman Briana Stoltzman 5'8" | CG Mankato West | 2021 State MN , junior Lani Schoper Lani Schoper 5'9" | CG Mankato West | 2022 State MN and sophomore Teresa Kiewiet Teresa Kiewiet 5'10" | SF Mankato West | 2023 State MN , West might just surprise.

St. Croix Lutheran (3) – The Crusaders are often underestimated but have a group of solid veterans who are peaking – Lucia Hauge Lucia Hauge 6'0" | PF St. Croix Lutheran | 2021 State MN , Juel Skrien Juel Skrien 5'10" | SG St. Croix Lutheran | 2021 State MN and Mackenna Moon Mackenna Moon 5'7" | CG St. Croix Lutheran | 2021 State MN – plus elite freshman guard Laura Hauge Laura Hauge 5'9" | SG St. Croix Lutheran | 2024 State MN .

DeLaSalle (4) – Clearly this is a makeover year at DLS, but with such talent as Savannah White Savannah White 6'1" | SG DeLaSalle | 2022 State MN , Sydney Runsewe Sydney Runsewe 5'8" | CG DeLaSalle | 2022 State MN and Mya Williams Mya Williams 5'10" | PF DeLaSalle | 2022 MN , the Islanders could come out looking pretty if the youngsters mature quickly.

Red Wing (1) – All defense all the time. That is Red Wing’s reputation which means Abi Deming Abi Deming 5'10" | SF Red Wing | 2021 State MN , Sydney Rahn, Sydnee Nelson Sydnee Nelson 5'5" | CG Red Wing | 2023 State MN and company have to be taken seriously.

BEST OF THE REST

Picking favorites in the smaller classes is always a bit of a crapshoot. Even though many more teams now make their games available online, there aren’t enough hours in the day to see the 270-odd teams that compete in Class 2A and 1A across the state. We have only watched a handful so far – no Albany, no Minneota, no New London-Spicer, no Sauk Centre. In other words, this isn’t an all-encompassing list. Among those we have seen, these are the teams that have impressed us the most in 2A. We’ll leave 1A aside for now since our sample size is way too small.

Class 2A

Duluth Marshall (section 7) – Gianna Kneepkens Gianna Kneepkens 5'11" | CG Duluth Marshall | 2021 State #86 Nation MN is shredding the record books at over 41 points per game and Merlea Mrozek leads a solid supporting cast.

Stewartville (1) – Point guard Haylie Strum Haylie Strum 5'6" | CG Stewartville | 2023 State MN has blossomed into the kind of leader who can propel a team to greatness while Maia Peterson Maia Peterson 5'7" | PG Stewartville | 2021 State MN , Keeley Steele Keeley Steele 5'8" | CG Stewartville | 2023 State MN and company know what it takes to win.

Providence Academy (5) – 7th grade point guard sensation Maddyn Greenway Maddyn Greenway 5'8" | PG Providence Academy | 2026 State MN is drawing headlines and big forwards Maria Counts Maria Counts 5'11" | PF Providence | 2022 State MN and Grace Counts Grace Counts 6'1" | PF Providence | 2023 State MN are a formidable force up front. Depth could be a problem.

Minnehaha Academy (4) – 8th grader Addison Mack Addison Mack 5'9" | PG Minnehaha Academy | 2025 State MN is a treat, freshmen Anisa Longs Anisa Longs 5'8" | PG Mpls South | 2024 State MN , Jennica Suggs and Berit Parten are talented, and forwards Aniyah Reuben Aniyah Reuben 5'10" | SF Minnehaha Academy | 2023 State MN and Telia Graham Telia Graham 5'10" | SF Minnehaha | 2022 State MN are off to a great start. These Redhawks look legit.

Fergus Falls (8) – South Dakota State commit Ellie Colbeck Ellie Colbeck 5'9" | PG Fergus Falls | 2022 State MN is one of the best point guards in the state, junior Tori Ratz Tori Ratz 5'7" | CG Fergus Falls | 2022 State MN can shoot lights out, and senior forward Paige Pearson is solid. This isn’t coach Brad Strand’s first rodeo, either.