Rankings update: Getting ready for the Freshmen 50
It seems like we have been working on ranking the Class of 2025 forever. Maybe that’s because so many of them are already established varsity competitors. Perhaps it’s because the talent pool is becoming deeper and deeper every year. More likely it is because we have tried really, really hard to get it right. Our colleague Tony Ragulen, in particular, has done a great job since the spring writing about the 2025s and offering a preview of which talented athletes might make the 2025 edition of the Prep Girls Hoops Minnesota Freshmen 50. Well the work is now done, the debating for this stage is complete, and this week the 50 newly minted high schoolers with the best odds of playing college basketball will be introduced.
Today we bring you a sneak preview of the list, offer some insight into how players are selected and issue our usual reminder that this is a list of college prospects, not a compiling of current top performers. More on that in a minute. On Tuesday we’ll reveal the Top 10. On Wednesday we’ll bring you the rest of the Top 25. Finally, we’ll publish all 50 names on Thursday. Over the next couple of weeks we will also update the previously published classes of ranked prospects.
The 2022s – this year’s senior class – will grow from the current number of 160 ranked players, although that tabulation has yet to be finalized. The 2023s will swell past its current 150, as well. As for the 2024s… well the top end of that compilation has undergone a major transformation as so many great young talents have emerged since the class was last updated in June. There are currently 100 ranked players in the Class of 2024 but we will be adding 25 more. Let’s begin with the 2025s.
Welcome to the Class of 2025
Here’s what the Freshmen 50 looks like:
- All 20 players on our 2025 Watch List published in June made the final 50.
- 44 of the 50 athletes are from the seven-county Twin Cities region. The other are spread across the state.
- 8 prospects are enrolled at private schools, including Benilde-St. Margaret’s, Minnehaha Academy, Providence Academy, DeLaSalle, Duluth Marshall and Visitation.
- Large schools still dominate the prospect pool with 30 kids from Class 4A institutions and another 14 from 3A.
- Maple Grove leads the way with 5 prospects while Prior Lake and Wayzata have three each.
- All of the major AAU clubs are well-represented along with independents such as The City, Start Strong Finish Stronger, Starks Elite and West Central United.
- Just like last year, 11 of the top 50 freshmen stand 6’0 or taller. Another 13 measure in at 5’10 or 5’11.
The one person you won’t find on the list is Dilan Tubbs of Hopkins. We decided last time to leave out players who missed the entire summer due to injury. If she makes it back on the court in her usual form you can be pretty sure Dilan will be included in January. She’s good!
How does the rankings process work?
There’s a first time for everything. For players and parents who are new to the rankings process, it can be somewhat confusing. Some folks get upset. Others are disappointed. But those who read this short primer on how the process works and what we are looking for will get it.
In the spring of the player’s 8th grade year, we publish a Watch List of 20 incoming high school freshmen listed in alphabetical order. Players are officially ranked by Prep Girls Hoops for the first time that fall. The rankings are now updated three times a year in November, February and June. Each time the lists get a little bit longer. The Class of 2025 ranking begins with 50 names now and grows by 25 each time the rankings are updated until reaching a total of 150. From then on we’ll add deserving players through to their high school graduation.
There’s no doubt that rankings are popular. They can also be controversial. Everyone wants to know who decides whether or not a player makes the list and what the standards are. There is one important criteria that gets misunderstood every single time we update the rankings. That’s why we issue a reminder ahead of time and put it in big, bold type:
THE RANKINGS ARE ABOUT COLLEGE POTENTIAL, NOT CURRENT PERFORMANCE.
Our objective today IS NOT to tell you who the best 9th graders are in Minnesota. Our goal is TO PREDICT who will be the best college freshmen four years from now. That’s not easy but we put a ton of time and energy into doing it in the most thorough way possible. That can make for some interesting choices, and this year’s selections are no exception. Every time there are a couple of tall, lanky, somewhat awkward kids who make the Freshmen 50 even though they haven’t played a lick of varsity yet and can barely dribble the ball up the floor. Four years later they are playing Division 1 college basketball. And every time we publish the list there are small guards who average 20 points a game whose names are nowhere to be found. Clearly the attributes it takes to be successful in collegiate basketball aren’t the same as what it takes to put up 20 in a high school game.
Here are some key factors that determine who makes the Freshmen 50.
- Size matters and height is in short supply. It’s just fact that 6’1 girls have a much greater chance of being college players than those who are 5’6. There are exceptions of course, but there aren’t many small guards like McKenna Hofschild (Colorado State), Katie Borowicz (Minnesota) or Kennedy Sanders Kennedy Sanders 5'8" | CG Chaska | 2023 State MN (Colorado commit) or are good enough to play D1 basketball.
- Visibility is crucial. If you live up by the Canadian border or tucked away on a farm in Southwestern Minnesota it can be hard to get seen. That’s why AAU basketball is so important. I don’t have the exact numbers but I’d be willing to bet that 90 percent of the kids who make it to a decent level of college ball have played AAU or a similar form of travel basketball. Video is making it easier to be seen, of course, and we incorporated more video viewing into our process over the past 18 months than ever before. (We didn’t have a choice, of course, but there are a few good things that have resulted from the COVID-19 pandemic and this is one of them.)
- There is no fee you can pay to get on the list. We do provide plenty of opportunities to be evaluated, including the Prep Girls Hoops Top 250 Expo and the Minnesota Fall Exclusive but you can’t pay to be ranked. Other so-called scouting services charge a fee. We do not.
- Someone is always watching. I personally watch over 200 high school games a year. We are at every AAU event and showcase, attend practices and training sessions and talk to a ton of people. Over the past few years we have developed a great network of basketball folks around Minnesota who are watching on our behalf, too. Even referees working a game in some far-off corner of the state will send me a message about a player they saw the night before, and we are happy to hear from them.
- We have a diverse group of evaluators, and we get new people to review the information every time we update the rankings. Among the participants are current and former AAU, high school and college coaches from all levels. Everyone involved is granted anonymity which is what makes it work so well. If someone’s take on the rankings of a particular class is clearly biased towards a particular club or school we discard their input entirely and never ask them to help again.
- There are a lot of things we look for when evaluating players. Beyond height and length we’re seeking natural athleticism, skill development, court vision, innate understanding of the game, teamwork, body language, plus leadership and communication skills. We’re also watching the behavior of their parents. I could name you a few whose behavior cost their kids six figures worth of free education, but I’ll resist the temptation.
- Social media is a huge part of the recruiting process, and most players are fairly savvy about how to use Twitter effectively. There are some prospects, however, who definitely overdo it. To be honest, posting video every day of your latest workout or yesterday’s highlights or whatever other self-promotion you or your parents dream up is NOT HELPING YOU. Quite the contrary. The occasional highlight is great. Season highlight videos are better. But spamming the coaching community will do more harm than good. It’s definitely not helping you move up in our rankings.
We are always trying to improve how we evaluate and rank players. It’s as much art as science, and it’s certainly not perfect. We make mistakes. We miss players in the first ranking of a class. And sometimes things don’t pan out the way we expect. What we know is this: Nobody works harder to try and get it right. We hope you’ll agree.
Coming up next: The 2025 Top 10.