Division 1 Sectional 2 Bracketology

<p>In under a week, we'll know everyone's path to a gold ball, and even though this season's gone by fast, the best is yet to come. Throughout the week, we'll look at the penultimate update of the RPI rankings, my expectations, and things to watch when the WIAA unveils the brackets on Sunday. We'll start with D1 and work our way down to D5.<br>The first thing to understand is how the WIAA seeds teams. It's an adjusted RPI formula, which includes games against non-WIAA foes, which I don't include because it is more challenging than it sounds to add those teams in there without breaking how the macro runs.<br>The main thing to remember is, from my experience, the more you win, no matter who it's against, the more favorable treatment you get in the WIAA formula to an extent. A good example would be undefeated Verona last year, landing a three-seed behind undefeated Oregon and three-loss Arrowhead. Winning is the most crucial aspect of the formula, but beating good teams is also factored in.</p>   <p>Sectional 2 is the place where teams with state aspirations go to die. Heading into the season, six or seven teams had legitimate goals of winning a regional title, and almost half of them will come short.</p>   <p>Reigning D2 champions, Pewaukee has two losses, one to national power Montverde Academy down in Florida, which isn't in my formula. However, the WIAA will treat it as a .500 team and to Arrowhead. The Pirates' strength of schedule in state and presumably a 20-2 record heading into Selection Sunday.</p>   <p>Kimberly had the edge on Pewaukee until their recent home loss to the Pirates, but we'll never know what could've happened had the Papermakers won that game. However, there's still a chance we witness a Kimberly-Pewaukee matchup in a Sectional Final. Barring an unforeseen loss to one of West De Pere, Fond du Lac, or Notre Dame, the Papermakers should have themselves a No. 2 seed in their sectional again this season.</p>   <p>After that, things get tricky. Three teams with claims to the No. 3 seed in the sectional, 17-3 Hartford, 18-3 Brookfield East, and 18-3 De Pere. All of those teams should win their games this week, and assuming they do, let's lay out the resumes.</p>   <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Hartford's best three wins</strong></td><td><strong>Hartford's three losses</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Whitefish Bay (18-2)</td><td>Notre Dame (14-4)</td></tr><tr><td>Pius XI (15-4)</td><td>Kettle Moraine Lutheran (19-1)</td></tr><tr><td>Homestead (15-5)</td><td>Homestead (15-5)</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>   <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Brookfield East's best three wins</strong></td><td><strong>Brookfield East's three losses</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Wauwatosa East (20-1)</td><td>Kimberly (18-1)</td></tr><tr><td>Verona (18-2)</td><td>Wauwatosa East (20-1)</td></tr><tr><td>Edgerton (18-2)</td><td>Kettle Moraine Lutheran (19-1)</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>   <figure class="wp-block-table"><table class="has-fixed-layout"><tbody><tr><td><strong>De Pere's best three wins</strong></td><td><strong>De Pere's three losses</strong></td></tr><tr><td>Notre Dame x2 (14-4)</td><td>Kimberly (18-1)</td></tr><tr><td>West De Pere (16-4</td><td>Laconia (16-3)</td></tr><tr><td></td><td>SPASH (16-4)</td></tr></tbody></table></figure>   <p>I'd have the order Hartford, Brookfield East, followed by De Pere. However, my personal opinion doesn't matter. Based on the teams all three played in non-conference games. Assuming conference records are mostly similar, I'd guess it shakes out with Hartford at No. 3, De Pere at No. 4, and Brookfield East at No. 5.</p>   <p>Brookfield East having Oak Creek and Franklin on the schedule helped them last season, but it may be what forces them to travel for a Regional Championship game in a few weeks. A combined record of 17-22 for the Knights and Sabers could be the difference between hosting or travelling for a Regional Title game.</p>   <p>The following two teams, Homestead and Notre Dame, are also in an intriguing predicament. They have plenty of common opponents, and each could drop a game to end the week, Notre Dame against Kimberly and Homestead against Whitefish Bay, but Homestead should edge out Notre Dame to the No. 6 seed. Also is something that these teams are out of the running to host a Regional Title, even though each would host in any other Sectional.</p>   <p>Here's my guess in how things shake out, and when I'm wrong, be sure to tell me about it.</p>   <ol class="wp-block-list"> <li>Pewaukee</li>   <li>Kimberly</li>   <li>De Pere</li>   <li>Hartford</li>   <li>Brookfield East</li>   <li>Homestead</li>   <li>Notre Dame</li>   <li>Bay Port</li>   <li>Germantown</li>   <li>Manitowoc Lincoln</li>   <li>Green Bay Preble</li>   <li>Menomonee Falls</li>   <li>Kaukauna</li>   <li>Sussex Hamilton</li>   <li>Sheboygan North</li>   <li>Divine Savior Holy Angels</li>   <li>Fond du Lac</li>   <li>Waukesha North/South</li> </ol>   <p>After predicting this sectional, I'm noticing potential movement this coming week. Seeds No. 8 to No. 14 are far from set in stone, and each team has the potential to trip up and throw this prediction out of whack, but here are the records I see those teams ending with.</p>   <p>No. 8 Bay Port (15-7): beating Pulaski and Green Bay Preble</p>   <p>No. 9 Germantown (13-9): beating Brookfield Central</p>   <p>No. 10 Manitowoc Lincoln (13-8): beating Pulaski and Sheboygan South</p>   <p>No. 11 Green Bay Preble (13-9): losing to Bay Port and De Pere</p>   <p>No. 12 Menomonee Falls (12-9): beating DSHA</p>   <p>No. 13 Kaukauna (13-9): beating Appleton North, Marshfield, and Oshkosh West</p>   <p>No. 14 Sussex Hamilton (12-10): losing to Brookfield East</p>   <p>I'm sure some of these guesses will be incorrect and throw off what I'd otherwise guess, but that's the fun of it all. It's also incredible that the No. 14 seed will likely be an over .500 team, but that's an article for a different day.</p>

In under a week, we'll know everyone's path to a gold ball, and even though this season's gone by fast, the best is yet to come. Throughout the week, we'll look at the penultimate update of the RPI rankings, my expectations, and things to watch when the WIAA unveils the brackets on Sunday. We'll start with D1 and work our way down to D5.
The first thing to understand is how the WIAA seeds teams. It's an adjusted RPI formula, which includes games against non-WIAA foes, which I don't include because it is more challenging than it sounds to add those teams in there without breaking how the macro runs.
The main thing to remember is, from my experience, the more you win, no matter who it's against, the more favorable treatment you get in the WIAA formula to an extent. A good example would be undefeated Verona last year, landing a three-seed behind undefeated Oregon and three-loss Arrowhead. Winning is the most crucial aspect of the formula, but beating good teams is also factored in.