Division 3 Sectionals 1 and 2 Bracketology

<!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>In under a week, we'll know everyone's path to a gold ball, and even though this season's gone by fast, the best is yet to come. Throughout the week, we'll look at the penultimate update of the RPI rankings, my expectations, and things to watch when the WIAA unveils the brackets on Sunday. We'll start with D1 and work our way down to D5.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The first thing to understand is how the WIAA seeds teams. It's an adjusted RPI formula, which includes games against non-WIAA foes, which I don't include because it is more challenging than it sounds to add those teams in there without breaking how the macro runs.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>From my experience, the more you win, no matter who it's against, the more favorable treatment you get in the WIAA formula. A good example would be undefeated Verona last year, landing a three-seed behind undefeated Oregon and three-loss Arrowhead. Winning is the most crucial aspect of the formula, but beating good teams is also factored in.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Today, we're diving into D3 and what the brackets in each section and subsection should look like.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>We're starting in western Wisconsin with Sectional One. Last season, Baldwin-Woodville earned a trip to Green Bay from this clump of teams, and they're looking to make a return in these next few weeks.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Nobody has taken this sectional by storm at this point of the season. One weird loss from Baldwin-Woodville or St. Croix Central could create separation before Sunday. I suspect those two programs will have the No. 1 and 2 seeds in this sub-sectional, with Amery likely being the No. 3 seed to add more Middle Border Conference representation at the top.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Northwestern could be a possibility at that No. 3 seed. However, they likely land on the No. 4 line, with a potential first-round matchup with No. 5 Prescott in Maples, WI.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>People interested in topics regarding seeding for future reference. The treatment of the Middle Border and Heart O'North Conferences in the middle of this bracket will tell us a lot about future brackets. All the teams here are from those two conferences, and seeing how it shakes out after the No. 2 seed will tell us all we need to know.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Here's how I see this sub-sectional shaking out.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list {"ordered":true} --> <ol class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Baldwin-Woodville</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>St. Croix Central</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Amery</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Northwestern</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Prescott</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Barron</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Hayward</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Somerset</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Osceola</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>St. Croix Falls</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Ellsworth</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Spooner</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --></ol> <!-- /wp:list --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The top two seeds in the top half were as clear cut from the rest as possible, but it's somehow more apparent in the southern part of this sectional.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Elk Mound and Wisconsin Dells have been the two best teams in their sub-sectional all season long by any metric you want to look at, and they'll be the No. 1 and 2 seeds in here, barring them dissolving their programs in the next two days.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>After that, it gets more intriguing. No. 3 to 6 should be a case of what's valued and not valued in seeding. I'll assume Mauston finishes at the top of that group of teams.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Here's how I see it shaking out.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list {"ordered":true} --> <ol class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Elk Mound</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Wisconsin Dells</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Mauston</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Bloomer</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Arcadia</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Altoona</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Adams-Friendship</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Stanley-Boyd</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Viroqua</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Black River Falls</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Gale-Ettrick-Trempeauleau</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --></ol> <!-- /wp:list --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Moving onto Sectional Two, the top half's top seed will be Wittenberg-Birnamwood. The Chargers could find three games to play between now and Sunday, lose all of them and still have a chance at the No. 1 seed. That's how dominant they've been relative to other teams in their sub-sectional.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>After the Chargers, I expect Freedom to slot in at the No. 2 seed, where they'd likely see the Chargers in Oconto Falls for a Sectional Semi-Final matchup. I won't waste too much time here, so here's how I see things shaking out.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list {"ordered":true} --> <ol class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Wittenberg-Birnamwood</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Freedom</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Seymour</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Menomonee Nation</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Wrightstown</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Northland Pines</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Tomahawk</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Peshtigo</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Amherst</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Oconto Falls</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Sturgeon Bay</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Clintonville</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --></ol> <!-- /wp:list --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The bottom half of the bracket will stress test the WIAA formula. Xavier will likely be 12-10 heading to Selection Sunday after a matchup with Seymour. The Hawks have gone out of their way to play the best teams they could find around the state, like Arrowhead, Edgewood, Laconia, Lakeland, and Milwaukee Academy of Science. They'd play the Monstars if they could find room on their schedule. The Hawks even beat Winneconne in a controlling fashion this season. However, the 12-10 record may see them slide. Regardless, I'm interested in where they land in their bracket.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Winneconne is solid and may very well land on the No. 1 line, but no matter what happens, I believe Xavier or Winneconne emerges out of this sub-sectional.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Here's how I think seeding goes.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list {"ordered":true} --> <ol class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Winneconne</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Omro</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Kiel</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Xavier</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Chilton</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Denmark</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Berlin</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Ripon</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Two Rivers</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Little Chute</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>New Holstein</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Wautoma</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --></ol> <!-- /wp:list --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Xavier could land as low as No. 6.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph -->