Division 3 Sectionals 3 and 4 Bracketology

<!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>In under a week, we'll know everyone's path to a gold ball, and even though this season's gone by fast, the best is yet to come. Throughout the week, we'll look at the penultimate update of the RPI rankings, my expectations, and things to watch when the WIAA unveils the brackets on Sunday. We'll start with D1 and work our way down to D5.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The first thing to understand is how the WIAA seeds teams. It's an adjusted RPI formula, which includes games against non-WIAA foes, which I don't include because it is more challenging than it sounds to add those teams in there without breaking how the macro runs.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>From my experience, the more you win, no matter who it's against, the more favorable treatment you get in the WIAA formula. A good example would be undefeated Verona last year, landing a three-seed behind undefeated Oregon and three-loss Arrowhead. Winning is the most crucial aspect of the formula, but beating good teams is also factored in.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Today, we're diving into D3 and what the brackets in each section and subsection should look like.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Sectional Three lost a state champion in Edgewood to D2 but added D4 state champion Laconia to the field. Congrats, Sectional Three. You lost Edgewood but picked up a small-school power.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>In the top half are the schools furthest west in the sectional, and three teams have solidified themselves at the top of the field in Platteville, Edgerton, and Prairie du Chien. Those three will be the top three seeds, and multiple teams fighting for a No. 4 seed.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The clump of teams fighting for No. 4 are varied and have similar ratings in the raw RPI I've done the past two months.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Lodi is the outlier, but Turner, Brodhead, River Valley, and Evansville are within .019 on raw RPI. Here's how I think this sectional shakes out.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list {"ordered":true} --> <ol class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Platteville</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Edgerton</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Prairie du Chien</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Beloit Turner</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Lodi</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>River Valley</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Evansville</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Big Foot</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Dodgeville</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Richland Center</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --></ol> <!-- /wp:list --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Laconia headlines the bottom of this sectional and will be the heavy favorite to emerge from this sectional and make a fourth consecutive trip to Green Bay. However, there is a team that could stand in their way, which I'll highlight in my predictions starting next week.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Laconia will likely take the No. 1 spot in this sub-sectional unless East Troy edges them to the top line, but I don't see that happening. However, here's how I see the bottom half shaping up.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list {"ordered":true} --> <ol class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Laconia</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>East Troy</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Lake Country Lutheran</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Watertown Luther Prep</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Lakeside Lutheran</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>North Fond du Lac</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Columbus</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Winnebago Lutheran</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Mayville</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Whitewater</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Campellsport</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Lake Mills</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --></ol> <!-- /wp:list --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Moving on to the final sectional, Sectional Four, the heavy favorite to earn a Sectional crown are the two best teams in the top half, Oostburh and Kettle Moraine Lutheran.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Those two teams will be the No. 1 and 2 seeds in the top half, and barring a team like Dominican or Sheboygan Falls pulling off a significant upset, we'll see an Oostburg-Kettle Moraine Lutheran game, not at the state tournament nor a Sectional Final to get to a state tournament, we'll see it in a Sectional Semi-Final, which we can talk about how ridiculous that is on a different day.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Here's how the bracket may look on Sunday.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list {"ordered":true} --> <ol class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Kettle Moraine Lutheran</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Oostburg</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Sheboygan Falls</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Dominican</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Brown Deer</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Milwaukee School of Languages</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Brookfield Academy</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Fuller Collegiate</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Carmen Northwest</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Hmong Peace Academy</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Kewaskum</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>University School</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --></ol> <!-- /wp:list --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>The bottom half of this bracket will have its work cut out for them to get past the winner of the top half. There are plenty of solid teams down here, and Catholic Memorial was an abysmal shooting afternoon away from the state tournament last season.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:paragraph --> <p>Here's how the bottom half of the final D3 bracket could look.</p> <!-- /wp:paragraph --> <!-- wp:list {"ordered":true} --> <ol class="wp-block-list"><!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Catholic Memorial</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Milwaukee Academy of Science</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Racine St. Catherine's</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>St. Thomas More</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Messmer</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Saint Anthony</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Cristo Rey Jesuit</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>St. Francis</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Shoreland Lutheran</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Milwaukee North</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Racine Lutheran</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --> <!-- wp:list-item --> <li>Milwaukee Washington</li> <!-- /wp:list-item --></ol> <!-- /wp:list -->