State Finals: 2020 Edition

And here. We. Go. The entire season has come down to this: 12 hours, eight teams, four games, and four champions. What do we know for sure? Northwestern is looking for their third consecutive State Championship, this time in Class 4A after the last two came in Class 3A. Lawrence North returns to the Class 4A game for the second consecutive year, a feat difficult in itself. The Class 3A game will showcase two systematic teams in NorthWood and Salem who will take care of the ball, defend hard, cut hard, and take advantage of each other's mistakes. Class 2A Frankton might have as little pressure on them as anyone, considering when tournament play began, they were the third best team in their own Sectional, per Sagarin ratings. Linton-Stockton, on the other hand, is coming off the upset of previously unbeaten Triton Central. And in the Class 1A game, both Pioneer and Loogootee walk into Bankers Life Fieldhouse feeling good about convincing wins in the Semi-State. Will every game be in single-digits Saturday? Probability says 'no', but you should see four good games with different styles, a variety of talent, and a lot of entertainment throughout. <span style="font-size: 10pt;"><em>Viewing Options: The Class 1A and 2A games will be shown on Fox Sports Indiana. The Class 3A and 4A games will be shown on Fox Sports Indiana <span style="text-decoration: underline;">Plus</span> due to the Pacers game. All games are able to be viewed on the IHSAAtv.org website or the IHSAA TV app on your smartphone.</em></span> &nbsp; <span style="font-size: 18pt;"><strong>CLASS 1A</strong></span> <strong>Loogootee (26-2)</strong>; Sagarin 50 (#1 in Class 1A); Strength of Schedule 171 <strong>Pioneer (25-2)</strong>; Sagarin 94 (#4 in Class 1A); Strength of Schedule 316 <b>Class 1A Matchup:</b> Pioneer vs. Loogootee, 10:30 a.m. EST This game will be much closer than analytics can predict, because it's hard for a computer to calculate the midseason return of a key player like <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/ashlynn-brooke/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/ashlynn-brooke/">Ashlynn Brooke</a></a></strong> (2023) for Pioneer. The Panthers haven't played the greatest schedule in the world, but they have handled their business and look as strong as anyone in Class 1A right now. The trio of the 5-6 Brooke, a dynamic shooter/scorer, 5-6 wing <strong>Hailey Cripe</strong> (2022), their leading scorer at 16.2 ppg, and 5-8 athlete <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/olivia-brooke/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/olivia-brooke/">Olivia Brooke</a></a></strong> (2021) make them a tough matchup. Additionally, 5-10 forward <strong>Madison Blickenstaff</strong> (2021) has found key opportunities to make a difference. Loogootee also creates nightmares for opponents. 5-6 point guard <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kalea-fleming/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kalea-fleming/">Kalea Fleming</a></a></strong> (2021) and 5-7 guard <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/brooklynn-jones/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/brooklynn-jones/">Brooklynn Jones</a></a></strong> (2021) are as dynamic a pair of guards as there are in Class 1A. They are tough-nosed, athletic, and very aggressive at both ends of the floor. 5-8 forward <strong>Makenzie VanHoy</strong> (2021) and 5-9 forward <strong>Kylie VanHoy</strong> (2022) have done a nice job this season at controlling the boards, defending in the paint, and scoring the ball everywhere inside the arc. <strong>Class 1A Prediction:</strong> Loogootee 47, Pioneer 46 Anytime I predict a one-point game, it means I really don't want to pick a winner because I feel it's a pretty even matchup. In this case, I chose Loogootee simply because of their experience and strength of schedule. Pioneer can easily win this game, especially if they are making shots like they have been all tournament. <strong>Class 1A X-Factor Player:</strong> Makenzie VanHoy, 2021, Loogootee H.S. This is one of those games where the stars will be stars and show us what they're capable of, so it's going to take that "next" kid in the lineup to step up and make plays. I think Makenzie has the ability to score 15-20 points and grab a dozen rebounds if Pioneer is focused mostly on Fleming and Jones. If Makenzie can make all of the hustle plays and find easy baskets for herself, I think it puts Loogootee in position to take home the Class 1A crown. &nbsp; <span style="font-size: 18pt;"><strong>CLASS 2A</strong></span> <strong>Linton-Stockton (24-5)</strong>; Sagarin 33 (#2 in Class 2A); Strength of Schedule 149 <strong>Frankton (21-7)</strong>; Sagarin 114 (#14 in Class 2A); Strength of Schedule 205 <b>Class 2A Matchup:</b> Frankton vs. Linton-Stockton, approximately 12:45 p.m. EST Frankton is on somewhat of a magical run right now. During the regular season, they fell to Monroe Central (55-43) and twice to Lapel (60-48 &amp; 60-34). However during the Sectional, the Eagles upset Monroe Central 50-47 in the Semi-Final, while Lapel was upset by Wapahani. I've viewed them as a favorite in every game since, though. Sometimes it takes a little luck, and sometimes it takes someone like 5-7 guard <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/ava-gardner/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/ava-gardner/">Ava Gardner</a></a></strong> (2021) stepping up huge in postseason play. Entering tournament play, she was averaging 7.8 points per game, but in the tournament she is averaging 16.8 points per game, more than double her regular season average. Linton has more to worry about than just Ava. 6-1 post <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/chloee-thomas/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/chloee-thomas/">Chloee Thomas</a></a></strong> (2021) can be a handful for opposing defenses, 5-10 wing <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/addie-gardner/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/addie-gardner/">Addie Gardner</a></a></strong> (2020) is a long, athletic, multi-level scorer, and 5-7 point forward <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/lauryn-bates/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/lauryn-bates/">Lauryn Bates</a></a></strong> (2022) is a matchup problem with her ability to create offense for herself or others. Throw in the great motor of <strong>Grace Alexander</strong> (2020) and the perimeter shooting of <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/bailey-tucker/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/bailey-tucker/">Bailey Tucker</a></a></strong> (2020), and they have a fairly deep rotation. Linton, on the other hand, has a starting lineup to be reckoned with. 5-9 point forward <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/vanessa-shafford/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/vanessa-shafford/">Vanessa Shafford</a></a></strong> (2021) is a force. She can score it at all levels, she's strong, tough, physical, and aggressive. She also works hard at the defensive end of the floor. 5-6 guard <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/aubrey-burgess/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/aubrey-burgess/">Aubrey Burgess</a></a></strong> (2021) is an absolute ball of energy. She flies around the floor with quickness and length, making plays in every facet of the game. 6-0 forward <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/haley-rose/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/haley-rose/">Haley Rose</a></a></strong> (2021) might be one of the most improved players since reaching high school. She can put it on the floor and slice to the basket, or she can knock down a jumper. She's also incredibly long and somewhat bouncy. 5-9 wing <strong>Jaylee Hayes</strong> (2022) and 6-0 post <strong>Gentry Warrick</strong> (2022) have been really good at finding their spots and coming up with big shots/plays. This one will be a lot closer than people might assume. <strong>Class 2A Prediction:</strong> Linton-Stockton 48, Frankton 41 I think Linton is a little more talented throughout their starting five, but I think Frankton has the right pieces to match up player-for-player with Linton. This one will be close throughout the first three quarters, but I believe Linton will begin to pull away with about four to six minutes remaining in the game. From that point, they'll just need to make free throws and take care of the basketball. <strong>Class 2A X-Factor Player:</strong> <a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/addie-gardner/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/addie-gardner/">Addie Gardner</a></a>, 2020, Frankton H.S. In my opinion, <a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/addie-gardner/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/addie-gardner/">Addie Gardner</a></a> is the most talented player on Frankton's roster in terms of athleticism and her ability to create space/shots for herself. I will bet on Linton paying a lot of attention to her younger sister, Ava, and rightfully so, but with Addie now coming off the bench, I think she can get herself open and find shots to keep this game close. Addie has 30-point potential, and if she can even score it in the 20s, I think Frankton keeps it close, plus they put themselves in a position to win this game. &nbsp; <span style="font-size: 18pt;"><strong>CLASS 3A</strong></span> <strong>Salem (25-3)</strong>; Sagarin 13 (#1 in Class 3A); Strength of Schedule 35 <strong>NorthWood (27-3)</strong>; Sagarin 21 (#2 in Class 3A); Strength of Schedule 59 <b>Class 3A Matchup:</b> NorthWood vs. Salem, 6:00 p.m. EST This game is going to be a battle of styles, effort, and coaching. Both teams will pressure a little, but not so much to turn the other over as to control tempo and slow transition opportunities. Both will execute in the half-court, play hard and aware defensively, and make precise cuts, physical screens, and crisp passes. One turnover, one missed block-out, and even one missed shot could determine this game. NorthWood will continue to use their interior play of 6-1 forward <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/maddy-payne/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/maddy-payne/">Maddy Payne</a></a></strong> (2020) and 6-0 post <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kate-rulli/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kate-rulli/">Kate Rulli</a></a></strong> (2020). Payne is the longer, bouncier kid who can play around the block but is better in the mid-post. Rulli is the strong, physical, tough rebounder/defender on the block. 5-10 wing <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/alea-minnich/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/alea-minnich/">Alea Minnich</a></a></strong> (2021), 5-7 guard <strong>Kendal Miller</strong> (2021), and 5-9 wing <strong>Karlie Fielstra</strong> (2020) do a nice job of taking care of the ball, knocking down open jumpers, and using their length and effort defensively. The Salem Lions are every bit the well-oiled machine, if not with more depth. After they lost 2018-2019 leading scorer <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/leah-miller/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/leah-miller/">Leah Miller</a></a></strong> (2020) before this season even began, many questioned them winning a Sectional, let alone making this run to Bankers Life Fieldhouse. But they have come together and done this in true "team" fashion. 5-7 guard <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/karly-sweeney/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/karly-sweeney/">Karly Sweeney</a></a></strong> (2021) is one of my favorites to watch. She is skilled, strong, tough-nosed, and she plays with a tremendous motor. 5-9 wing <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/natalie-noel/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/natalie-noel/">Natalie Noel</a></a></strong> (2022) is a nice athlete who has been very active and made big plays at key times. 5-11 forward <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/abigail-ratts/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/abigail-ratts/">Abigail Ratts</a></a></strong> (2022) brings a lot of energy and productivity off the bench for them. 5-5 guard <strong>Hope Tomlinson</strong> (2020) is a seasoned veteran who can handle it some and make shots from the perimeter. 6-1 post <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/lettie-nice/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/lettie-nice/">Lettie Nice</a></a></strong> (2020) is one of the most opportunistic bigs in the state, always in the right place at the right time. 5-2 point guard <strong>Callie Backherms</strong> (2021) does a nice job taking care of the ball, and 5-10 post <strong>Olivia Weber</strong> (2021) has an imposing presence in the paint. <strong>Class 3A Prediction:</strong> Salem 41, NorthWood 37 Like I predicted last week with NorthWood's game, I think this one will be low-scoring as well and see two teams limiting possessions, making it a half-court game. I think NorthWood's first five are as tough as anything Salem can throw at them, plus the Black Swish have good size and length. However, Salem has a deeper roster, and if NorthWood experiences any sort of health or foul-related issues, it gives the Lions a big advantage. <strong>Class 3A X-Factor Player:</strong> <a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/abigail-ratts/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/abigail-ratts/">Abigail Ratts</a></a>, 2022, Salem H.S. Abigail has been huge off the bench as the "sixth starter" for Salem this year, but I'm not picking her for her offensive contributions. Salem will start a smaller, quicker lineup than NorthWood, but I'm guessing the Lions will need to get Abigail in early to match up with the interior size of the Black Swish, so she will need to be big defensively and on the boards. If she can effectively defend someone like <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/maddy-payne/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/maddy-payne/">Maddy Payne</a></a></strong>, I think that really helps the Lions take the stage with the big trophy. &nbsp; <span style="font-size: 18pt;"><strong>CLASS 4A</strong></span> <strong>Northwestern (29-0)</strong>; Sagarin 1 (#1 in Class 4A); Strength of Schedule 53 <strong>Lawrence North (25-4)</strong>; Sagarin 5 (#5 in Class 4A); Strength of Schedule 2 <b>Class 4A Matchup:</b> Northwestern vs. Lawrence North, approximately 8:15 p.m. EST This Senior class at Northwestern enters Saturday 107-8 for their careers. Lawrence North's enters 80-24, outstanding by anyone else's standards. This game will be a contrast of styles, but as usual, if Northwestern is able to use their size and get to the free throw line, it will be an uphill climb for Lawrence North. Last week, Penn managed to limit Northwestern's free throw trips in the first half, plus they did a tremendous job of defending the back-door cuts the Tigers love to run. I think Lawrence North is a more athletic team than Penn, but we'll see if they can defend Northwestern's half-court offense as well. The Tigers' 6-1 point forward, <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/madison-layden/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/madison-layden/">Madison Layden</a></a></strong> (2020), enters the game already high on the state's lists for career points, assists, and steals. She is a triple-threat as a shooter/scorer, creator, and defender. 6-1 post <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kendall-bostic/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kendall-bostic/">Kendall Bostic</a></a></strong> (2020) is now the sixth member of the exclusive 2000-point, 1000-rebound club. She draws so much attention, that even when she doesn't score big numbers, she maintains the opponent's focus. 5-8 guard <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/klair-merrell/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/klair-merrell/">Klair Merrell</a></a></strong> (2020) has put together a nice Senior season and career, and she is one of the most under-appreciated players in the state, outside of Kokomo. 6-0 forward <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/mckenna-layden/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/mckenna-layden/">McKenna Layden</a></a></strong> (2023) has also stepped up in a big way as just a Freshman. Lawrence North can bring waves of talent, and they will certainly play several more people Saturday. 5-10 wing <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/katie-davidson/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/katie-davidson/">Katie Davidson</a></a></strong> (2020) and 5-4 point guard <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kristian-young/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kristian-young/">Kristian Young</a></a></strong> (2020) are the heart and soul of this team. Both are tough-nosed, gritty, and aggressive. 5-11 guard <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/jayla-smith/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/jayla-smith/">Jayla Smith</a></a></strong> (2021) is one of the purest scorers in the state, and she can flat out make shots. 5-8 forward <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/lauren-gunn/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/lauren-gunn/">Lauren Gunn</a></a></strong> (2020) has returned and given them an energetic defender/rebounder they've needed. <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kalyn-ervin/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/kalyn-ervin/">Kalyn Ervin</a></a></strong> (2020) and <strong>Aniyjha Graves</strong> (2021) are perimeter threats who find space off of others. And 5-11 post <strong><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/sydnee-hughes/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/sydnee-hughes/">Sydnee Hughes</a></a></strong> (2021) could have a big role off the bench, helping to defend Bostic inside. <strong>Class 4A Prediction:</strong> Northwestern 58, Lawrence North 47 Northwestern's ability to catch team's sleeping and score on back-door cuts, post feeds when help-side is late, and get to the free throw line, is unparalleled around the state. Penn did as good of a job as anyone at defending and frustrating the Tigers for three quarters. If Lawrence North can learn from that Penn game, I think they make this a six to eight-point game. But Northwestern has the ability to wear on people, and if Lawrence North shows the least bit of frustration, fouls too often, and doesn't make shots consistently, it could very easily creep up around 20 points at the end. <strong>Class 4A X-Factor Player:</strong> <a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/jayla-smith/"><a href="https://prepgirlshoops.com/player/jayla-smith/">Jayla Smith</a></a>, 2021, Lawrence North H.S. Jayla will have as much talent and skill as anyone who takes the floor in any game on Saturday. She can be an elite shot-maker at times, and the Wildcats will need her on top of her game. Points are tough to come by against Northwestern, as they typically allow only one shot per possession, but Jayla's ability to knock down shots with deep range forces defenses to extend themselves a little, allowing her driving lanes or opening things up for teammates. If she can score in the mid 20s or higher tomorrow, it gives Lawrence North their best chance at an upset.