By the Numbers: Bracketology Part I
We are just about one month away from the first section game to be played. Seedings are done in a couple different ways, QRF and Coaches Vote. There are positives and negatives to both scenarios, but in the end, we have to decide whether to seed based on who has the better resumé or who is the best team.
At PGH, we have ratings to represent both! The actual ratings are meant to be used as a predictive tool, that rates team based on their overall performance regardless of wins and losses. The teams at the top of that metric should be considered the best team. Strength of Record is a metric that determines the difficulty of an average team to achieve that team’s record, and is based only on wins and losses. The team at the top of Strength of Record should be considered to have the best resumé.
In my opinion, seeding should be somewhere in the middle, not exactly the middle, but somewhere. So, what I’ve done is used 2/3 Strength of Record and 1/3 PGH Rating to create a Bracketology Rating. This allows us to do both actual bracketology as well as hypothetical bracketology. Everyone is waiting for Class AAAA to seed 1-64 (only 62 teams currently, but same idea). Below is a link to that hypothetical bracket using the equation above.
The other three class can be found below, with the Class A and AA brackets including both First Four Out and Next Four Out lists.
And finally, a 64-team bracket for the entire state. As a reminder, teams are not left out of this bracket because they are not good enough. They may be left out due to schedules that, by no doing of their own, are too easy.
Next week, I will have a link for actual Bracketology including all 32 sections.
Biggest Upset
This section will feature the most unlikely winners. When the preseason ratings are involved, the unlikely winners have a chance to be the better team, but we use the ratings at the time of the game to determine who goes here.
Cristo Rey Jesuit 67, Maranatha Christian 65 (0.03% chance of upset)
The Pumas picked up their first signature conference win in exciting fashion with a 3-pointer at the buzzer.
Honorable Mention: Hillcrest Lutheran 53, Parkers Prairie 43 (0.47%), Fertile-Beltrami 48, Northern Freeze 34 (0.53%)
Biggest Gainers
This section will be reserved for the teams that move up the rankings the most.
A – Fertile-Beltrami (previously Class A #93, currently #67)
- Wins – A #40 Northern Freeze (48-34)
- Losses –A #14 Warren-Alvarado-Oslo (65-53)
AA – Fairmont (previously Class AA #71, currently #62)
- Wins – none
- Losses – AAA #18 Worthington (69-59), AA #2 Waseca (66-37)
AAA – St. Croix Lutheran (previously Class AAA #15, currently #8)
- Wins – AAA #49 Visitation (72-30), AAA #3 DeLaSalle (74-65)
- Losses – none
AAAA – Edina (previously Class AAAA #26, currently #19)
- Wins – AAAA #8 Eden Prairie (67-56)
- Losses – AAAA #15 Shakopee (64-60)
Biggest Fallers
This section will include the teams that fell down the rankings the most.
A – South Ridge (previously Class A #77, currently #98)
- Wins – A #139 Wrenshall (60-35)
- Losses – A #60 East Central (55-22)
AA –Barnesville (previously Class AA #37, currently #48)
- Wins – AA #83 Staples-Motley (51-41)
- Losses – A #22 Ada-Borup (54-47), AA #23 Hawley (59-32)
AAA – Mankato West (previously Class AAA #12, currently #16)
- Wins – AAA #29 Mankato East (56-36)
- Losses – none
AAAA – Eastview (previously Class AAAA #29, currently #34)
- Wins – none
- Losses – AAAA #10 Rosemount (42-25), AAAA #27 Lakeville South (66-38)
Highest Scoring Games
It was a pretty standard week as far as points per game go, with the weekly average sitting at 105.1 points. The season average is down another 0.2 points to 105.9 points per game. Worthington’s win over Windom was the highest scoring game so far this season.
- Worthington 98, Windom 95 (OT)
- Waconia 92, Chanhassen 75
- Orono 84, Sauk Rapids-Rice 76
- Roseau 89, Badger/Greenbush-Middle River 67
- Luverne 87, Jackson County Central 67
Predictions
Each week I will list the computer predictions for some of the more interesting games around the state. These predictions may change as the week goes on due to the outcomes of previous games. All games that I am aware of each day are predicted on Twitter (@MNBBRatings).
Monday
- Rosemount vs. Eden Prairie (Eden Prairie 66-63)
- Waterville-Elysian-Morristown @ Belle Plain (Belle Plaine 52-44)
Tuesday
- Blaine @ Andover (Blaine 59-58)
- St. Croix Lutheran @ Holy Angels (Holy Angels 75-71)
- Lakeville North @ Shakopee (Shakopee 64-63)
- Cromwell-Wright @ Hermantown (Hermantown 60-57)
- Duluth Marshall @ Proctor (Duluth Marshall 59-55)
Thursday
- Rochester Mayo @ Rochester John Marshall (Rochester John Marshall 61-60)
- Benilde-St. Margaret’s @ Orono (Orono 62-61)
Friday
- Hutchinson @ Waconia (Hutchinson 74-70)
- Goodhue @ Rochester Lourdes (Rochester Lourdes 60-49)
- Eden Valley-Watkins @ Royalton (Royalton 45-44)
Saturday
- Duluth Marshall @ Pine City (Duluth Marshall 70-66)
- Champlin Park @ Rochester Mayo (Champlin Park 57-56)