State Tournament Previews By the Numbers: AAAA and AAA

The State Tournaments get underway on Wednesday. Here’s what the computer has to say about the Class AAAA and AAA tournaments. <strong><span style="text-decoration: underline">Class AAAA</span></strong> [table id=79 /] <strong>Favorite:</strong> Hopkins This is an obvious place for Hopkins, who looks to complete their second consecutive undefeated State Championship season in a row. The ratings give the Royals over an 88% chance to do just that. <strong>Contenders:</strong> St. Michael-Albertville, Eden Prairie St. Michael-Albertville returns to the State Tournament after a couple year absence. The move to the Lake Conference caused the Knights to finally lose a conference game, but the increased competition didn’t keep them down as they rate as the third best team in the state and second best in the tournament. Eden Prairie enters the State Tournament with the worst record among the eight at 18-11. However, their strength of record ranks fifth among tournament teams. While they do have losses, they have shown the ability to compete with and beat some of the state’s top teams, which puts them among the state’s top teams. <strong>Sleepers:</strong> Farmington, Park Center A full strength Farmington squad would likely be in the contenders category. Unfortunately for the Tigers they are not at full strength. They earned the second seed, but will not be favored in their first round matchup against Eden Prairie. A State Championship for the Tigers would require them to defeat the top three rated teams in the tournament in consecutive games. Park Center started the season like they were shot out of a cannon. In their first three games of the year, they beat State Tournament teams STMA, Stillwater, and Eden Prairie, although those three wins came by a combined total of 13 points. <strong>Long Shots:</strong> Stillwater, Lakeville North, Cambridge-Isanti As the fifth seed, Stillwater draws a Park Center squad that beat them in a close game earlier in the season. Another close game is expected and if the Ponies come out on top, their reward is a likely matchup with top seeded Hopkins. Lakeville North, new section, same result. Unfortunately, they do are not given the same chance to succeed in the State Tournament as they were in the Section 3AAAA. A first round upset is possible, but stringing together multiple upsets in a row is difficult. Just a couple of years ago, if you had told me Cambridge-Isanti would be the State Tournament in the near future, I might have called you crazy. Now you could call me crazy! The Bluejackets have made tremendous strides and have had a great season, but they will be outmatched in their first game. <strong>Analysis</strong> Just like last year, this would be a fantastic tournament if you removed Hopkins as most of the rest of the teams are fairly equally matched. However, Hopkins is in the tournament and they are a combined 6-0 against Class AAAA State Tournament teams with an average margin of victory of 17.5 points per game. I would much rather be ridiculed for picking Hopkins to win and have them get upset, than to pick another team and have Hopkins win. <span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>Class AAA</strong></span> [table id=78 /] <strong>Favorite:</strong> DeLaSalle For the second consecutive year, the Islanders are the top seed and the favorite to win it all. After starting 0-3, they have proceeded to go 24-1, including wins over two Class AAAA State Participants and two wins over Holy Angels. <strong>Contenders:</strong> Waconia, Becker, Holy Angels, Hermantown, Red Wing, Alexandria Waconia chose to challenge themselves and it paid off with their first trip to the State Tournament in school history. They took some losses, but learned from them and now are the top contender to DeLaSalle for the State Championship. The Bracketology rating had the Wildcats seeded fifth, even with their 10 losses. Becker is looking to build on last year’s experience as the runner up. They assured themselves a chance do just that with a Section 5AAA Championship. The most significant hurdle to the championship game is Waconia, but Red Wing and Alexandria are no slouches. Holy Angels is a State Tournament regular, and this year they earned a #5 seed. The Stars a riding a 10 game win streak, but the competition in Section 6AAA was not great. In order to reach the championship they will need to overcome DeLaSalle, who has beaten the Stars twice already this season. Hermantown gets credit for beating the quality AA teams from the Duluth area. However, losses to St. Anthony Village and Duluth East are concerning. A tough first round draw pits the Hawks against DeLaSalle, which makes them the largest round one underdog. Red Wing is the unlucky team to "random draw" Waconia. The Wingers left no doubt in Section 1AAA as they won both games by 30+, but Waconia will be a much more difficult challenge. If Red Wing can allow just 24 points again, which they did in both section games, their chances of winning will be very high. Alexandria comes out of Section 8AAA and the Cardinals draw Becker, whom they lost to at home earlier in the season. The Central Lakes Conference was likely not a great primer for the level of competition as the conference boasts just two opponents for the Cardinals in the PGH "Top 100." <strong>Sleepers:</strong> Simley The best sleeper of all the sleepers. Simley has been hurt by the struggles of their opponents. The wins over Austin, Hill-Murray (x2), and Eastview are not as valuable now as they were when they happened. Simley’s only two losses are to high level AAAA teams. <strong>Analysis</strong> This is the most balanced tournament of the four. I am most excited to watch this tournament as I truly believe that every team has a chance to win their first game. Obviously Hermantown will have the most difficult time pulling off the upset, but there is a chance. So far, I have picked all of the favorites to win. This is where I break the trend and go with not only a team that isn’t a favorite, but is also unseeded as I’m going with Waconia to win the State Championship.